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The Next 100 Million Americans

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    THE NEXT 100 MILLION AMERICANS BRAD KNICKERBOCKER CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR 09/12/06 http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1010/p01s02-ussc.html The one sure thing
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      THE NEXT 100 MILLION AMERICANS
      BRAD KNICKERBOCKER
      CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
      09/12/06
      http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1010/p01s02-ussc.html


      The one sure thing about US population as it moves past 300 million -
      expected to happen in the next few days - is that there will be more
      Americans. A lot more.

      Everything else is informed speculation. Still, much will turn on how
      big the United States becomes and how fast it grows - from its use of
      natural resources to its settlement patterns to shifts in political
      clout.

      There will be 400 million Americans in 2043, climbing to 420 million
      by midcentury, the US Census Bureau estimates. The added numbers will
      change the nature of the populace, reflecting trends already begun.

      Between the last official census in 2000 and the one of 2050,
      non-Hispanic whites will have dwindled from 69 percent to a bare
      majority of 50.1 percent. The share who are Hispanic will have doubled
      to 24 percent. Asians also will have doubled to 8 percent of the
      population. African-Americans will have edged up to 14 percent. In
      other words, the US will be on the verge of becoming a "majority of
      minorities."

      Wars, natural disasters, shifts in the economy, unforeseen social and
      political developments - any or all of these could affect the numbers,
      perhaps dramatically. For one thing, America could, as many voters and
      their elected officials now demand, clamp down on immigration. The
      country's unusually high teen pregnancy rate could drop. Scientific
      advances could extend longevity.

      In any case, Americans are expected to continue to gravitate west and
      south. Today, the Top 10 fastest growing states, cities, and
      metropolitan areas are all in those regions, mostly in the West. In
      general, the West and South have been growing two to three times as
      fast as the Northeast and Midwest.

      The great American midsection, meanwhile, will continue to empty out.

      When historian Frederick Jackson Turner declared the American frontier
      "closed" in 1893, he was using the Census Bureau definition of
      "frontier" as areas having no more than six people per square mile. By
      that same density definition, the number of such counties actually has
      been increasing: from 388 in 1980 to 397 in 1990 to 402 in 2000.
      Kansas has more "frontier" land now than it did in 1890.

      If these regional shifts continue as expected, the political impact
      will be felt. For one thing, membership in the US House of
      Representatives, fixed at 435 seats, would change, producing winners
      and losers just as it has with recent censuses. It may shift the
      current alignment of "red" states and "blue" states - but other
      factors besides population growth in the South and West may influence
      that political balance.

      SOURCE: CENSUS BUREAU PROJECTIONS; RICH CLABAUGH - STAFF


      For example, wealthy, relatively liberal Californians and others with
      money to spend have been buying up ranch land in politically
      conservative Rocky Mountain states such as Montana, Idaho, and
      Wyoming. Many of them are more inclined to want to protect the
      environment from energy exploration and other development.

      An increasing Hispanic population - which could see 188 percent growth
      between 2000 and 2050, according to the Census Bureau - could affect
      the political balance as well.

      At the same time, the population will become relatively older. A
      person born in 1967, when the population turned 200 million, could be
      expected to live 70.5 years. Life expectancy for those born today is
      77.8 years.

      More older Americans

      The impact of the aging baby-boom generation, whose oldest members
      turn 60 this year, will be felt on Social Security and Medicare. "We
      really are doing very well in terms of extending life, and that is
      going to increase the rate of population growth," says Samuel Preston,
      a University of Pennsylvania demographer. It could also have political
      impact.

      SOURCES: TRUSTEES OF THE SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE TRUST FUNDS;
      CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES; RICH CLABAUGH - STAFF


      As the US moves toward 400 million people, Americans can be expected
      to marry later in life, and more of them will live alone. Between 1970
      and 2005, the median age of first marriage moved from 23 to 27 for men
      and from 21 to 26 for women. Over the same period, the percentage of
      single-person households grew from 17 percent to 26 percent. Those
      trends are likely to continue.

      Experts generally believe that expansion to meet the housing and other
      community needs of a growing population is likely to remain
      concentrated in suburbs and exurbs.

      "Most projections show that the continued increase in the US
      population and the projected 50 percent increase in space devoted to
      the built environment by 2030 will largely take place in the sprawling
      cities of the South and West, areas dominated by low-density,
      automobile-dependent development of residential, commercial, and
      industrial space," writes demographic trend-watcher Joel Kotkin in a
      recent issue of the magazine The Next American City.


      MORE TO COME: Seniors at a retirement community in State College, Pa.,
      enjoy a water aerobics class. People over age 66 will be 19.4 percent
      of Americans by 2043, up from 11.8 percent now.
      CAROLYN KASTER/AP./FILE


      Concerns about use of resources

      This kind of continuing development tied to US population growth
      worries many environmentalists, as well as those concerned about the
      loss of farmland.

      Annual US population growth of nearly 3 million contributes to the
      water shortages that are a serious concern in the West and many areas
      in the East, says Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy
      Institute. Water tables are now falling throughout most of the Great
      Plains and in the Southwest, he warns. Some lakes are disappearing and
      rivers are running dry.

      "As water supplies tighten, the competition between farmers and cities
      intensifies," says Mr. Brown. "Scarcely a day goes by in the western
      United States without another farmer or an entire irrigation district
      selling their water rights to cities like Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix,
      Los Angeles, or San Diego."

      Concern about a growing populace and decreasing resources is likely to
      push governments toward conservation and more sustainable development,
      experts say.

      This may be especially true of energy. Nineteen states and the
      District of Columbia now have renewable portfolio standards that
      require electric utilities to use more wind, solar, biomass,
      geothermal, and other renewable sources.

      "The global context will really drive what happens in the United
      States," says futurist Hazel Henderson.

      Last month, for example, the Chinese government released its first
      "green" gross domestic product (GDP) report. It measures economic
      growth while also factoring in the environmental consequences of that
      growth. Other governments and financial intuitions now are being
      pushed in the same direction. US portfolio managers in charge of $30
      trillion in assets now demand carbon disclosures of all the companies
      in their portfolios, says Ms. Henderson.

      "The tipping point has been reached there," says Henderson. "I feel
      very hopeful that the evolution to the solar age could happen much
      quicker than we might have expected because it's being driven by so
      many stress points, from global warming to water shortages to
      desertification."

      By mid-century, she predicts: "Cars will be getting 100 m.p.g. if
      they're still using gasoline instead of fuel cells. That's definitely
      a no-brainer. Cities and towns will get more and more compact as these
      sprawling suburbs end up being too costly and inefficient."

      SOURCES: CENSUS BUREAU PROJECTIONS; AMERICAN FARMLAND TRUST; RICH
      CLABAUGH - STAFF


      That vision for the future contrasts sharply with Mr. Kotkin's. But
      given current political, economic, environmental, and social trends -
      especially the unknowns about world energy supplies - it is likely to
      be just as valid.

      Meanwhile, the US population clock keeps ticking: Every 8 seconds
      somebody is born. Every 13 seconds somebody dies. Every 31 seconds
      there's another immigrant - legal or illegal. It adds up to a net gain
      of one person every 11 seconds, or about 8,000 every day. It took 39
      years to add the most recent 100 million; the next 100 million will
      take a couple of years less than that. [ Editor's note: The original
      version omitted the national birth rate.]

      The US population growth rate is expected to decline a bit by
      mid-century. Still, by then the numbers will have increased to some
      420 million, according to official calculations. Critics of US
      immigration policy say the number could be significantly higher.

      "If Congress should end up ducking the issue of immigration reform and
      maintaining the status quo of mass legal and illegal immigration, our
      population is projected to still continue its rapid growth," warns the
      Federation for American Immigration Reform in a recent report. "Our
      projection is for a population of between 445 and 462 million
      residents depending on the assumptions used."

      Diversity is changing attitudes

      But societal changes tied to population are more than numbers.

      As the racial and ethnic mix among Americans shifts in the decades
      ahead, public attitudes are likely to change as well. In some ways,
      they already are.

      SOURCE: CENSUS BUREAU PROJECTIONS; RICH CLABAUGH - STAFF
      Click here to enlarge the image
      For example, between 1986 and 2003, the share of adults who approved
      of interracial marriage rose from 70 percent to 83 percent, according
      to a Roper Reports study. This trend is especially true among young
      Americans. A 2002 Gallup survey showed that just 30 percent of adults
      65 and older approved of marriage between blacks and whites. But among
      people between 18 and 29, 86 percent said they had no problem with
      interracial marriage.

      "The fact that today we see young people intermarrying more,
      interracial dating much more common - all of that I think portends
      that we're going to become much more ecumenical in the way we look at
      things than we were in the past," says William Frey, a demographer at
      the University of Michigan and the Brookings Institution. "I think
      we'll have much more tolerance for people of other backgrounds,
      cultures and languages, points of view, and religious and belief systems."

      What's certain is that there will be a lot more Americans.

      *********************************************************************

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