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Fw: Typhoon HALONG (COSME) lashes Northern Pangasinan... [Update #008]

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  • D Doty
    This storm continues to intensify, in spite of warnings that it would reach only tropical storm intensity. It s now a Cat 1 typhoon and growing. At one point
    Message 1 of 1 , May 17, 2008
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      This storm continues to intensify, in spite of warnings that it would reach only tropical storm intensity.  It's now a Cat 1 typhoon and growing. At one point today, I saw a recording of 17++ inches per hour (for a few minutes only) At about 19:00 today the Barangy (Community) was issuing a warning of storm signal 3 (of a possible 4) for residents of the area. I will continue to broadcast information on this storm as long as electrical power and Internet connection continues. We are experiencing minor flooding, and some trees down, but nothing major at this point

      ----- Forwarded Message ----
      From: Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua) <stormlist@...>
      To: typhoon2000asiapac_stormlist@yahoogroups.com; typhoon2000ph_stormlist@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Saturday, May 17, 2008 7:57:13 PM
      Subject: Typhoon HALONG (COSME) lashes Northern Pangasinan... [Update #008]


      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
      Name: TYPHOON HALONG [COSME/05W/0804] 
      Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008
      Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ __
       
       
      HALONG (COSME) BECOMES THE 3RD TYPHOON OF 2008...CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
      INTENSIFY AND IS NOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN PANGASINAN OR IN THE
      VICINITY OF RENA POINT...EYE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS
      THE NORTHERN TIP OF PANGASINAN, PASSING JUST NORTH OF LINGAYEN GULF IN
      THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4:30 PM DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWED
      1-MIN. AVERAGE WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 140-150 KM/HR (T4.5)
      . 

      >> HALONG (COSME) could become the worst typhoon ever to hit the area since Typhoon
      VICKI (GADING) of September 18-19, 1998
      . Click here to view
      imageand track
      for its
      similarities.


      + FORECAST OUTLOOKHALONG's 30-km. Cloud-filled EYE is expected make
      landfall over La Union-Ilocos Sur border around 10 PM tonight. It shall
      then cross Northern Luzon late tonight until tomorrow, passing over the
      provinces of Abra, Kalinga, Apayao and Northern Cagayan. HALONG shall
      exit Luzon, via Northern Cagayan tomorrow morning around 8 AM. The 2 to
      5-day long range forecast shows the storm passing close to the South of
      Okinawa, Japan by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday morning, HALONG shall
      become Extratropical prior in making its second landfall over Honshu,
      Japan on Tuesday afternoon, May 20th 

      + EFFECTS: HALONG's strong circulation is now moving across the Northern
      tip of Pangasinan. Its core and inner rain bands now spreading across
      the whole of Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet & Tarlac - bringing
      moderate to heavy rains w/ typhoon-force winds exceeding 100 km/hr tonight.
      Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late tonight along the
      Provinces of Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet & Ilocos Sur as HALONG makes
      landfall. Its outer rain bands, on the other hand, continues to spread
      across the whole of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila. These
      bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains & strong
      winds not exceeding 60 km/hr tonight. People living in low-lying areas
      must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the
      anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary mea-
      sures must be fully implemented at this time. Coastal Storm Surge floo-
      ding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
      dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of
      HALONG's projected path particularly on where the center makes land-
      fall in Northern Pangasinan-La Union-Ilocos Area. Minimal damage is
      possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is
      possible along coastal areas of Western Philippines with surf
      reaching 2-3 feet at most.

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which
      is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western
      Visayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces.
      The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mo-
      derate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides,
      mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep moun-
      tain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of
      the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by
      this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the
      abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under
      the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains
      and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
       
      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ __

      EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT)
      :

      + Northern Zambales-Pangasinan : Ongoing until 10PM tonight.
      + La Union-Benguet- Ilocos Sur: 7PM tonight until 3AM tomorrow.
      + Abra-Kalinga- Apayao: 1AM until 7AM tomorrow.


      Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
      strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
      area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
      new warning synopsis is issued.
      Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
      or death decisions.

      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ __

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 MAY
      LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.1º N...LONGITUDE 119.6º E {SAT FIX}
      DISTANCE 1: 75 KM (40
      NM) WEST OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 95 KM (50 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH 
      DISTANCE 3: 100 KM (55 NM) NNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH 
      DISTANCE 4: 110 KM (60 NM) WSW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH 
      DISTANCE 5: 185 KM (100 NM) SSW OF VIGAN CITY, PH 
      DISTANCE 6: 235 KM (127 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH 
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 965 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 09 KPH (05 KTS) 
      GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD
        
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
      #03 - ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR.
      #02 -
       BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO
            IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, ABRA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE.

      #01 - METRO MANILA, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, 
            NORTHERN QUEZON, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN IS., BABUYAN & 
            BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.


      12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
      2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 17.7N 120.9E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 19.4N 122.7E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 19 MAY: 24.6N 128.2E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 59 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 20 MAY: 34.5N 137.4E / 85-100 KPH / NNE @ 65 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.9N 119.3E.
      ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER
      THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL
      OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. RECENT MICROWAVE SAT-
      ELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 6:15 AM MAY 17 WINDSAT IMAGE, SHOW THE
      RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL BANDING EYE FEATURE
      ...(more)

      >> HALONG{pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place 
         in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo 
         Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
         stone islands
      Name contributed by: Vietnam.

      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ __

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
       
      > 4 PM (08 GMT) 17 MAY: 16.0N 119.7E / NE @ 19 KPH / 105 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
         
      http://www.pagasa. dost.gov. ph/wb/tcupdate. shtml
      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ __

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      ________________________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes. noaa.gov/ sohemi/)
      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ ______

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
            being hoisted.
      For more explanations on these signals, 
            visit:
      http://www.typhoon2 000.ph/signals. htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ ______

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000. ph/tcterm. htm  
          http://www.nhc. noaa.gov/ aboutgloss. shtml
          http://www.srh. noaa.gov/ oun/severewx/ glossary. php
          http://www.srh. weather.gov/ fwd/glossarynati on.html
          http://www.nhc. noaa.gov/ acronyms. shtml
      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ ______

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      ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ ______

      For the complete details on TYPHOON HALONG (COSME/05W). ..go visit
      our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2 000.com
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