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RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events

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  • Dave LeLacheur
    Hey, I just suggested that last week, and no one commented, sniff! I think it ll work fine. You ll need 4 markers for both entry and tension in the 2 pools.
    Message 1 of 20 , Apr 3, 2006
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      Hey, I just suggested that last week, and no one commented, sniff! I
      think it'll work fine. You'll need 4 markers for both entry and
      tension in the 2 pools. Markers can go from -9 to +9; when you get to
      10 you gain or lose a chit. Should help smooth out entry a good
      deal. Hope you try it!

      Cheers,
      Dave L.


      At 9:31 AM -0500 4/3/06, tbell wrote:
      >It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by two
      >variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit value.
      >Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put forward the
      >suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep track of
      >the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is pulled from
      >the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but would be
      >interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had experience
      >with this system of USE.
      >
      >
      >Tom Bell
      >Reliant Commercial
      >1800 St. James Place
      >Suite 450
      >Houston, Texas 77056
      >713-974-7575
      >fax-975-0876
      >www.reliantcommercial.com
      >
      >
      >--
      >No virus found in this outgoing message.
      >Checked by AVG Free Edition.
      >Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299 - Release Date: 3/31/2006
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >Yahoo! Groups Links
      >
      >
      >
      >


      --


      Cheers,

      Dave LeLacheur
      lelacheur@...
      Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader

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    • tfancher@saginaw-mi.com
      We did exactly this in our last game. Worked pretty well, and was not complicated. We just kept a running tally. There are a few variations on this. Rather
      Message 2 of 20 , Apr 3, 2006
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        We did exactly this in our last game. Worked pretty well, and was not
        complicated. We just kept a running tally. There are a few variations on
        this. Rather than waiting to get to +1.0, we allowed one roll in-between.
        If it was at, say, +0.6, the Allies could make the roll if they wanted.
        If they won, they got a chit and the number was reset to -0.4. If they
        last the roll, they got no chit and the number stayed at 0.6. The only
        change that made is whether a chit came in a turn earlier. You still got
        the same number. The Axis ahd the same option when the number ventured
        into negative territory.

        Human nature being what it is, the griping did not stop. It just changed
        to initiative rolls, weather rolls and naval search rolls.




        "tbell" <tbell@...>
        Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
        04/03/2006 10:31 AM
        Please respond to wifdiscussion


        To: <wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com>
        cc:
        Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


        It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by two
        variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit value.
        Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put forward the
        suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep track of
        the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is pulled
        from
        the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but would
        be
        interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
        experience
        with this system of USE.


        Tom Bell
        Reliant Commercial
        1800 St. James Place
        Suite 450
        Houston, Texas 77056
        713-974-7575
        fax-975-0876
        www.reliantcommercial.com


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      • hfloystad
        We have tried this, too. It works rather well with some US players, and less well with others. To be statistically correct , the sum should be rounded to the
        Message 3 of 20 , Apr 3, 2006
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          We have tried this, too. It works rather well with some US players,
          and less well with others.

          To be statistically "correct", the sum should be rounded to the
          closest integer. Always rounding down produces slightly too low US
          entry at any point in the game.

          The first time we tried this, I was playing the US, I still did not
          get option warr appr until jul/aug of 42. (Gear up came in nov/dec
          of 41). This was the effect of a combination of bad luck and
          deliberate strategy.

          --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, tfancher@... wrote:
          >
          > We did exactly this in our last game. Worked pretty well, and was
          not
          > complicated. We just kept a running tally. There are a few
          variations on
          > this. Rather than waiting to get to +1.0, we allowed one roll in-
          between.
          > If it was at, say, +0.6, the Allies could make the roll if they
          wanted.
          > If they won, they got a chit and the number was reset to -0.4. If
          they
          > last the roll, they got no chit and the number stayed at 0.6. The
          only
          > change that made is whether a chit came in a turn earlier. You
          still got
          > the same number. The Axis ahd the same option when the number
          ventured
          > into negative territory.
          >
          > Human nature being what it is, the griping did not stop. It just
          changed
          > to initiative rolls, weather rolls and naval search rolls.
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > "tbell" <tbell@...>
          > Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
          > 04/03/2006 10:31 AM
          > Please respond to wifdiscussion
          >
          >
          > To: <wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com>
          > cc:
          > Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry &
          fixed value of USE events
          >
          >
          > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
          by two
          > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
          value.
          > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
          forward the
          > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
          track of
          > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
          pulled
          > from
          > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
          but would
          > be
          > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
          > experience
          > with this system of USE.
          >
          >
          > Tom Bell
          > Reliant Commercial
          > 1800 St. James Place
          > Suite 450
          > Houston, Texas 77056
          > 713-974-7575
          > fax-975-0876
          > www.reliantcommercial.com
          >
          >
          > --
          > No virus found in this outgoing message.
          > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
          > Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299 - Release Date:
          3/31/2006
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > Yahoo! Groups Links
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          >
        • RG1066@aol.com
          I like the idea mostly, but I would also roll for any left over entry at the end of a year and give the US player some ability to choose to roll for any left
          Message 4 of 20 , Apr 3, 2006
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            I like the idea mostly, but I would also roll for any left over entry at the end of a year and give the US player some ability to choose to roll for any left over positive entry and the axis the choice to roll for left over negative entry at some point; maybe at the end of any turn where no US entry events occured? Otherwise I could see a side doing actions to get the number up to 9 and then doing nothing for a long time, in effect delaying a US chit until the end of a year.

            Rich Gause

            -----Original Message-----
            From: Wendell Albright <wifwendell@...>
            To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
            Sent: Mon, 3 Apr 2006 07:34:31 -0700 (PDT)
            Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


            Never tried it, but I like the idea. USE
            advances will still be randomized by the chit
            draws, but reduces luck a little bit in a way
            that seems a wash for the Axis and Allies.

            Oh, and on the idea of changing values of the
            chits (while retaining the same average for a
            year's chits) - I do like the idea, but I would
            retain some zero chits (although fewer than now)
            to avoid absolute certainty.

            Cheers,

            Wendell

            --- tbell <tbell@...> wrote:

            > It seems that the variance in USE is largely
            > due to the impacted by two
            > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the
            > variance in the chit value.
            > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground
            > control and put forward the
            > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE
            > actions and just keep track of
            > the value of each action. Once a side goes
            > over the 9 a chit is pulled from
            > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup.
            > I like the idea, but would be
            > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF
            > listers who have had experience
            > with this system of USE.
            >
            >
            > Tom Bell
            > Reliant Commercial
            > 1800 St. James Place
            > Suite 450
            > Houston, Texas 77056
            > 713-974-7575
            > fax-975-0876
            > www.reliantcommercial.com
            >
            >
            > --
            > No virus found in this outgoing message.
            > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
            > Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299
            > - Release Date: 3/31/2006
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > Yahoo! Groups Links
            >
            > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wifdiscussion/
            >
            > wifdiscussion-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >


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          • tfancher@saginaw-mi.com
            Which is why we instituted our way. You get one chance to roll whenever it is +1-9 (or -1-9). RG1066@aol.com Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com 04/03/2006
            Message 5 of 20 , Apr 3, 2006
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              Which is why we instituted our way. You get one chance to roll whenever
              it is +1-9 (or -1-9).




              RG1066@...
              Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
              04/03/2006 12:38 PM
              Please respond to wifdiscussion


              To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
              cc:
              Subject: Re: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


              I like the idea mostly, but I would also roll for any left over entry at
              the end of a year and give the US player some ability to choose to roll
              for any left over positive entry and the axis the choice to roll for left
              over negative entry at some point; maybe at the end of any turn where no
              US entry events occured? Otherwise I could see a side doing actions to
              get the number up to 9 and then doing nothing for a long time, in effect
              delaying a US chit until the end of a year.

              Rich Gause

              -----Original Message-----
              From: Wendell Albright <wifwendell@...>
              To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
              Sent: Mon, 3 Apr 2006 07:34:31 -0700 (PDT)
              Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


              Never tried it, but I like the idea. USE
              advances will still be randomized by the chit
              draws, but reduces luck a little bit in a way
              that seems a wash for the Axis and Allies.

              Oh, and on the idea of changing values of the
              chits (while retaining the same average for a
              year's chits) - I do like the idea, but I would
              retain some zero chits (although fewer than now)
              to avoid absolute certainty.

              Cheers,

              Wendell

              --- tbell <tbell@...> wrote:

              > It seems that the variance in USE is largely
              > due to the impacted by two
              > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the
              > variance in the chit value.
              > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground
              > control and put forward the
              > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE
              > actions and just keep track of
              > the value of each action. Once a side goes
              > over the 9 a chit is pulled from
              > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup.
              > I like the idea, but would be
              > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF
              > listers who have had experience
              > with this system of USE.
              >
              >
              > Tom Bell
              > Reliant Commercial
              > 1800 St. James Place
              > Suite 450
              > Houston, Texas 77056
              > 713-974-7575
              > fax-975-0876
              > www.reliantcommercial.com
              >
              >
              > --
              > No virus found in this outgoing message.
              > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
              > Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299
              > - Release Date: 3/31/2006
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > Yahoo! Groups Links
              >
              > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wifdiscussion/
              >
              > wifdiscussion-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >


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            • lbinflorida42
              It s an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem is the chit values and
              Message 6 of 20 , Apr 3, 2006
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                It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem is
                the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of getting
                zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2 but
                they can still both be zero's.

                BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO that's
                the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll for
                tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a chit
                with a value greater than zero to increase tension.

                In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts with
                or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or keeps
                moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                excited. YMMV.

                Lane



                --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@...> wrote:
                >
                > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by
                two
                > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                value.
                > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                forward the
                > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                track of
                > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                pulled from
                > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but
                would be
                > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                experience
                > with this system of USE.
                >
                >
                > Tom Bell
              • hfloystad
                Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry chits: http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls (right column for each year are the
                Message 7 of 20 , Apr 4, 2006
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                  Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry
                  chits:

                  http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls

                  (right column for each year are the chits that we use)

                  Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably around
                  may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that the
                  variance would be low enough now for this not to happen. (Estimated
                  average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41 and
                  jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4 turns
                  early).

                  To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                  simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                  modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34 as
                  well as the associated standard deviation.

                  I noticed two things that I found interesting
                  - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit pool
                  - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit pool, i
                  expected it to fall a lot more.

                  The expected war app turn is:
                  Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8 turns
                  Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns

                  The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                  distribution.

                  I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so little,
                  is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                  partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                  partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.

                  I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as long as
                  both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same region.

                  While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem very
                  much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game. Note
                  that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.

                  Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big a
                  luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined. (Variance, ie
                  stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is probably
                  bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the 2d10
                  table during a game.

                  Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals about all
                  German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                  about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany manages
                  to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of supply
                  in Egypt.

                  Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is equivalent
                  to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11 gives
                  you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from you.
                  Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you with -
                  100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will more
                  than double this.

                  Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on production
                  reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This will
                  ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or jan/feb42
                  with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in sept/oct41
                  or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will still
                  hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                  bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.

                  Now, lets talk about the weather, again....


                  --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                  <lbinflorida42@...> wrote:
                  >
                  > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                  > variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem
                  is
                  > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                  getting
                  > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2
                  but
                  > they can still both be zero's.
                  >
                  > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO
                  that's
                  > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll
                  for
                  > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a
                  chit
                  > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                  >
                  > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts
                  with
                  > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                  > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                  keeps
                  > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                  > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                  > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                  > excited. YMMV.
                  >
                  > Lane
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                  > >
                  > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
                  by
                  > two
                  > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                  > value.
                  > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                  > forward the
                  > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                  > track of
                  > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                  > pulled from
                  > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
                  but
                  > would be
                  > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                  > experience
                  > > with this system of USE.
                  > >
                  > >
                  > > Tom Bell
                  >
                • kenzclark
                  Very interesting. Thanks! stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation means
                  Message 8 of 20 , Apr 4, 2006
                  • 0 Attachment
                    Very interesting. Thanks!

                    stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

                    For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                    means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41, there
                    is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a 96%
                    chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.

                    So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a +/-
                    5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.

                    Ken

                    --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@...> wrote:
                    >
                    > Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry
                    > chits:
                    >
                    > http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                    >
                    > (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                    >
                    > Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably around
                    > may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that the
                    > variance would be low enough now for this not to happen. (Estimated
                    > average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41 and
                    > jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4 turns
                    > early).
                    >
                    > To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                    > simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                    > modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34 as
                    > well as the associated standard deviation.
                    >
                    > I noticed two things that I found interesting
                    > - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit pool
                    > - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit pool, i
                    > expected it to fall a lot more.
                    >
                    > The expected war app turn is:
                    > Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8 turns
                    > Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                    >
                    > The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                    > distribution.
                    >
                    > I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so little,
                    > is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                    > partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                    > partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                    >
                    > I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as long as
                    > both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same region.
                    >
                    > While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem very
                    > much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game. Note
                    > that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                    >
                    > Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big a
                    > luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined. (Variance, ie
                    > stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is probably
                    > bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the 2d10
                    > table during a game.
                    >
                    > Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals about all
                    > German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                    > about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany manages
                    > to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of supply
                    > in Egypt.
                    >
                    > Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is equivalent
                    > to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11 gives
                    > you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from you.
                    > Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you with -
                    > 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will more
                    > than double this.
                    >
                    > Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on production
                    > reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This will
                    > ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or jan/feb42
                    > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in sept/oct41
                    > or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will still
                    > hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                    > bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                    >
                    > Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                    >
                    >
                    > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                    > <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                    > >
                    > > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                    > > variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem
                    > is
                    > > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                    > getting
                    > > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2
                    > but
                    > > they can still both be zero's.
                    > >
                    > > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO
                    > that's
                    > > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll
                    > for
                    > > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a
                    > chit
                    > > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                    > >
                    > > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts
                    > with
                    > > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                    > > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                    > keeps
                    > > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                    > > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                    > > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                    > > excited. YMMV.
                    > >
                    > > Lane
                    > >
                    > >
                    > >
                    > > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                    > > >
                    > > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
                    > by
                    > > two
                    > > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                    > > value.
                    > > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                    > > forward the
                    > > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                    > > track of
                    > > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                    > > pulled from
                    > > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
                    > but
                    > > would be
                    > > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                    > > experience
                    > > > with this system of USE.
                    > > >
                    > > >
                    > > > Tom Bell
                    > >
                    >
                  • Dave LeLacheur
                    Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more aggressive change to
                    Message 9 of 20 , Apr 4, 2006
                    • 0 Attachment
                      Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values
                      drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more
                      aggressive change to centralize chit values would have even more
                      impact. Definitely worth thinking about.

                      Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that it
                      was publicly available.

                      Thanks,
                      Dave L.


                      At 2:30 PM +0000 4/4/06, kenzclark wrote:
                      >Very interesting. Thanks!
                      >
                      >stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
                      >
                      >For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                      >means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41, there
                      >is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a 96%
                      >chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.
                      >
                      >So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a +/-
                      >5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.
                      >
                      >Ken
                      >
                      >--- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@...> wrote:
                      >>
                      >> Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry
                      >> chits:
                      >>
                      >> http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                      >>
                      >> (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                      >>
                      >> Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably around
                      >> may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that the
                      >> variance would be low enough now for this not to happen. (Estimated
                      >> average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41 and
                      >> jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4 turns
                      >> early).
                      >>
                      >> To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                      >> simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                      >> modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34 as
                      >> well as the associated standard deviation.
                      >>
                      >> I noticed two things that I found interesting
                      >> - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit pool
                      >> - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit pool, i
                      >> expected it to fall a lot more.
                      >>
                      >> The expected war app turn is:
                      >> Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8 turns
                      >> Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                      >>
                      >> The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                      >> distribution.
                      >>
                      >> I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so little,
                      >> is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                      >> partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                      >> partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                      >>
                      >> I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as long as
                      >> both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same region.
                      >>
                      >> While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem very
                      >> much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game. Note
                      >> that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                      >>
                      >> Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big a
                      >> luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined. (Variance, ie
                      >> stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is probably
                      >> bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the 2d10
                      >> table during a game.
                      >>
                      >> Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals about all
                      >> German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                      >> about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany manages
                      >> to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of supply
                      >> in Egypt.
                      >>
                      >> Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is equivalent
                      >> to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11 gives
                      >> you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from you.
                      >> Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you with -
                      >> 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will more
                      >> than double this.
                      >>
                      >> Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on production
                      >> reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This will
                      >> ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or jan/feb42
                      > > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in sept/oct41
                      >> or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will still
                      >> hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                      >> bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                      >>
                      >> Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                      >>
                      >>
                      >> --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                      >> <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                      >> >
                      >> > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                      >> > variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem
                      >> is
                      >> > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                      >> getting
                      >> > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2
                      >> but
                      >> > they can still both be zero's.
                      >> >
                      >> > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO
                      >> that's
                      >> > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll
                      >> for
                      >> > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a
                      >> chit
                      >> > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                      >> >
                      >> > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts
                      >> with
                      >> > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                      >> > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                      >> keeps
                      >> > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                      >> > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                      >> > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                      >> > excited. YMMV.
                      >> >
                      >> > Lane
                      >> >
                      >> >
                      >> >
                      >> > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                      >> > >
                      >> > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
                      >> by
                      >> > two
                      >> > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                      >> > value.
                      >> > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                      >> > forward the
                      >> > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                      >> > track of
                      >> > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                      >> > pulled from
                      >> > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
                      >> but
                      >> > would be
                      >> > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                      >> > experience
                      >> > > with this system of USE.
                      >> > >
                      >> > >
                      >> > > Tom Bell
                      >> >
                      >>
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >Yahoo! Groups Links
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >


                      --


                      Cheers,

                      Dave LeLacheur
                      lelacheur@...
                      Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader

                      *****************************************************************
                      Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                      online business career self-assessment program on the
                      internet: CareerLeader.
                      *****************************************************************
                    • hfloystad
                      Patrik published links to his simulations on this list a couple of weeks back, i think. Searhing the list should get you there in no time. As for the chit
                      Message 10 of 20 , Apr 5, 2006
                      • 0 Attachment
                        Patrik published links to his simulations on this list a couple of
                        weeks back, i think. Searhing the list should get you there in no
                        time.

                        As for the chit selection, it is fairly centralized already, or at
                        least about as much as you can with two sets of chits available,
                        when trying to combine two sets. To decrese the STDV significantly
                        by changing chits, one would have to "smear" the low chits of 1940
                        info 1939 and 1941, avoiding most of the 0's and 1's in 40' and most
                        of the 3's and 4's in 39' and 41'.

                        Still, I guess that this would reduce the STDV more than about
                        another .2 to .3. To reduce the STDV further, one would really have
                        to stop rolling for fractional chits from actions, and instead keep
                        track of them like what has been suggested in some posts.

                        --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...>
                        wrote:
                        >
                        > Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values
                        > drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more
                        > aggressive change to centralize chit values would have even more
                        > impact. Definitely worth thinking about.
                        >
                        > Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                        it
                        > was publicly available.
                        >
                        > Thanks,
                        > Dave L.
                        >
                        >
                        > At 2:30 PM +0000 4/4/06, kenzclark wrote:
                        > >Very interesting. Thanks!
                        > >
                        > >stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
                        > >
                        > >For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                        > >means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41,
                        there
                        > >is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a
                        96%
                        > >chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.
                        > >
                        > >So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a
                        +/-
                        > >5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.
                        > >
                        > >Ken
                        > >
                        > >--- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@>
                        wrote:
                        > >>
                        > >> Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US
                        entry
                        > >> chits:
                        > >>
                        > >> http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                        > >>
                        > >> (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                        > >>
                        > >> Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably
                        around
                        > >> may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that
                        the
                        > >> variance would be low enough now for this not to happen.
                        (Estimated
                        > >> average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41
                        and
                        > >> jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4
                        turns
                        > >> early).
                        > >>
                        > >> To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                        > >> simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                        > >> modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34
                        as
                        > >> well as the associated standard deviation.
                        > >>
                        > >> I noticed two things that I found interesting
                        > >> - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit
                        pool
                        > >> - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit
                        pool, i
                        > >> expected it to fall a lot more.
                        > >>
                        > >> The expected war app turn is:
                        > >> Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8
                        turns
                        > >> Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                        > >>
                        > >> The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                        > >> distribution.
                        > >>
                        > >> I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so
                        little,
                        > >> is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                        > >> partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                        > >> partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                        > >>
                        > >> I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as
                        long as
                        > >> both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same
                        region.
                        > >>
                        > >> While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem
                        very
                        > >> much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game.
                        Note
                        > >> that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                        > >>
                        > >> Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big
                        a
                        > >> luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined.
                        (Variance, ie
                        > >> stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is
                        probably
                        > >> bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the
                        2d10
                        > >> table during a game.
                        > >>
                        > >> Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals
                        about all
                        > >> German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                        > >> about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany
                        manages
                        > >> to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of
                        supply
                        > >> in Egypt.
                        > >>
                        > >> Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is
                        equivalent
                        > >> to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11
                        gives
                        > >> you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from
                        you.
                        > >> Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you
                        with -
                        > >> 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will
                        more
                        > >> than double this.
                        > >>
                        > >> Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on
                        production
                        > >> reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This
                        will
                        > >> ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or
                        jan/feb42
                        > > > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in
                        sept/oct41
                        > >> or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will
                        still
                        > >> hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                        > >> bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                        > >>
                        > >> Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                        > >>
                        > >>
                        > >> --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                        > >> <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                        > >> >
                        > >> > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                        > >> > variability to some degree I have always thought the major
                        problem
                        > >> is
                        > >> > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                        > >> getting
                        > >> > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always
                        get 2
                        > >> but
                        > >> > they can still both be zero's.
                        > >> >
                        > >> > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension?
                        IMHO
                        > >> that's
                        > >> > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to
                        roll
                        > >> for
                        > >> > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over
                        a
                        > >> chit
                        > >> > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                        > >> >
                        > >> > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US
                        starts
                        > >> with
                        > >> > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved
                        over to
                        > >> > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                        > >> keeps
                        > >> > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                        > >> > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and
                        this
                        > >> > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally
                        not real
                        > >> > excited. YMMV.
                        > >> >
                        > >> > Lane
                        > >> >
                        > >> >
                        > >> >
                        > >> > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                        > >> > >
                        > >> > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the
                        impacted
                        > >> by
                        > >> > two
                        > >> > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the
                        chit
                        > >> > value.
                        > >> > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and
                        put
                        > >> > forward the
                        > >> > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and
                        just keep
                        > >> > track of
                        > >> > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a
                        chit is
                        > >> > pulled from
                        > >> > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the
                        idea,
                        > >> but
                        > >> > would be
                        > >> > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who
                        have had
                        > >> > experience
                        > >> > > with this system of USE.
                        > >> > >
                        > >> > >
                        > >> > > Tom Bell
                        > >> >
                        > >>
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >Yahoo! Groups Links
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >
                        > >
                        >
                        >
                        > --
                        >
                        >
                        > Cheers,
                        >
                        > Dave LeLacheur
                        > lelacheur@...
                        > Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader
                        >
                        > *****************************************************************
                        > Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                        > online business career self-assessment program on the
                        > internet: CareerLeader.
                        > *****************************************************************
                        >
                      • hfloystad
                        Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance, is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the border, if they go for
                        Message 11 of 20 , Apr 5, 2006
                        • 0 Attachment
                          Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                          is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the
                          border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits, one
                          might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                          increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                          holding Paris).

                          --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...>
                          wrote:
                          >
                          > Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values
                          > drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more
                          > aggressive change to centralize chit values would have even more
                          > impact. Definitely worth thinking about.
                          >
                          > Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                          it
                          > was publicly available.
                          >
                          > Thanks,
                          > Dave L.
                          >
                          >
                          > At 2:30 PM +0000 4/4/06, kenzclark wrote:
                          > >Very interesting. Thanks!
                          > >
                          > >stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
                          > >
                          > >For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                          > >means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41,
                          there
                          > >is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a
                          96%
                          > >chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.
                          > >
                          > >So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a
                          +/-
                          > >5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.
                          > >
                          > >Ken
                          > >
                          > >--- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@>
                          wrote:
                          > >>
                          > >> Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US
                          entry
                          > >> chits:
                          > >>
                          > >> http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                          > >>
                          > >> (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                          > >>
                          > >> Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably
                          around
                          > >> may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that
                          the
                          > >> variance would be low enough now for this not to happen.
                          (Estimated
                          > >> average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41
                          and
                          > >> jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4
                          turns
                          > >> early).
                          > >>
                          > >> To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                          > >> simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                          > >> modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34
                          as
                          > >> well as the associated standard deviation.
                          > >>
                          > >> I noticed two things that I found interesting
                          > >> - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit
                          pool
                          > >> - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit
                          pool, i
                          > >> expected it to fall a lot more.
                          > >>
                          > >> The expected war app turn is:
                          > >> Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8
                          turns
                          > >> Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                          > >>
                          > >> The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                          > >> distribution.
                          > >>
                          > >> I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so
                          little,
                          > >> is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                          > >> partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                          > >> partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                          > >>
                          > >> I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as
                          long as
                          > >> both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same
                          region.
                          > >>
                          > >> While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem
                          very
                          > >> much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game.
                          Note
                          > >> that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                          > >>
                          > >> Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big
                          a
                          > >> luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined.
                          (Variance, ie
                          > >> stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is
                          probably
                          > >> bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the
                          2d10
                          > >> table during a game.
                          > >>
                          > >> Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals
                          about all
                          > >> German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                          > >> about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany
                          manages
                          > >> to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of
                          supply
                          > >> in Egypt.
                          > >>
                          > >> Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is
                          equivalent
                          > >> to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11
                          gives
                          > >> you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from
                          you.
                          > >> Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you
                          with -
                          > >> 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will
                          more
                          > >> than double this.
                          > >>
                          > >> Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on
                          production
                          > >> reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This
                          will
                          > >> ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or
                          jan/feb42
                          > > > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in
                          sept/oct41
                          > >> or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will
                          still
                          > >> hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                          > >> bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                          > >>
                          > >> Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >> --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                          > >> <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                          > >> >
                          > >> > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                          > >> > variability to some degree I have always thought the major
                          problem
                          > >> is
                          > >> > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                          > >> getting
                          > >> > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always
                          get 2
                          > >> but
                          > >> > they can still both be zero's.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension?
                          IMHO
                          > >> that's
                          > >> > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to
                          roll
                          > >> for
                          > >> > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over
                          a
                          > >> chit
                          > >> > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US
                          starts
                          > >> with
                          > >> > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved
                          over to
                          > >> > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                          > >> keeps
                          > >> > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                          > >> > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and
                          this
                          > >> > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally
                          not real
                          > >> > excited. YMMV.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > Lane
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                          > >> > >
                          > >> > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the
                          impacted
                          > >> by
                          > >> > two
                          > >> > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the
                          chit
                          > >> > value.
                          > >> > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and
                          put
                          > >> > forward the
                          > >> > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and
                          just keep
                          > >> > track of
                          > >> > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a
                          chit is
                          > >> > pulled from
                          > >> > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the
                          idea,
                          > >> but
                          > >> > would be
                          > >> > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who
                          have had
                          > >> > experience
                          > >> > > with this system of USE.
                          > >> > >
                          > >> > >
                          > >> > > Tom Bell
                          > >> >
                          > >>
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >Yahoo! Groups Links
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          >
                          >
                          > --
                          >
                          >
                          > Cheers,
                          >
                          > Dave LeLacheur
                          > lelacheur@...
                          > Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader
                          >
                          > *****************************************************************
                          > Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                          > online business career self-assessment program on the
                          > internet: CareerLeader.
                          > *****************************************************************
                          >
                        • Patrik Manlig
                          ... Here s the link: http://wif.manlig.org (Note: it is not an installable program, but the C++ source code for one. At present, knowledge of C++ is a must if
                          Message 12 of 20 , Apr 5, 2006
                          • 0 Attachment
                            Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...> wrote:
                            > Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                            > it was publicly available.

                            Here's the link:

                            http://wif.manlig.org

                            (Note: it is not an installable program, but the C++ source code for
                            one. At present, knowledge of C++ is a must if you intend to use it -
                            building a GUI that allows you to customize all parameters would be
                            quite a lot of work, and I have yet to do that.)

                            Dave, I did get your request - I just haven't had the time to consider
                            it yet. Spare time is unfortunately VERY scarce for me, but I'll try to
                            do it - but expect to wait a couple of weeks before I find the time to.

                            --
                            Patrik Manlig <patrik.manlig@...> +46 (0)73 988 55 15
                          • Dave LeLacheur
                            Thanks & no worries Patrik. Kind regards, Dave L. ... -- Cheers, Dave LeLacheur lelacheur@careerleader.com Director of Operations and Customer Service,
                            Message 13 of 20 , Apr 5, 2006
                            • 0 Attachment
                              Thanks & no worries Patrik.

                              Kind regards,
                              Dave L.

                              At 3:00 PM +0200 4/5/06, Patrik Manlig wrote:
                              >Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...> wrote:
                              >> Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                              >> it was publicly available.
                              >
                              > Here's the link:
                              >
                              > http://wif.manlig.org
                              >
                              > (Note: it is not an installable program, but the C++ source code for
                              > one. At present, knowledge of C++ is a must if you intend to use it -
                              > building a GUI that allows you to customize all parameters would be
                              > quite a lot of work, and I have yet to do that.)
                              >
                              > Dave, I did get your request - I just haven't had the time to consider
                              > it yet. Spare time is unfortunately VERY scarce for me, but I'll try to
                              > do it - but expect to wait a couple of weeks before I find the time to.
                              >
                              >--
                              >Patrik Manlig <patrik.manlig@...> +46 (0)73 988 55 15
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >Yahoo! Groups Links
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >


                              --


                              Cheers,

                              Dave LeLacheur
                              lelacheur@...
                              Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader

                              *****************************************************************
                              Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                              online business career self-assessment program on the
                              internet: CareerLeader.
                              *****************************************************************
                            • devinc@aol.com
                              I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It s about time that happened anyways. ... From:
                              Message 14 of 20 , Apr 5, 2006
                              • 0 Attachment
                                I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that happened anyways.

                                -----Original Message-----
                                From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                                Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the
                                border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits, one
                                might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                holding Paris).


                                [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                              • IA-211-BZ
                                As I said it before, it is highly probable taht it is an intended part of the game design. you do not declare war to russia, then you have less US entry, but
                                Message 15 of 20 , Apr 6, 2006
                                • 0 Attachment
                                  As I said it before, it is highly probable taht it is an intended part of the game design.

                                  you do not declare war to russia, then you have less US entry, but take more chits from the pool, so you get better 1942 chits sooner.

                                  Such mecanism allows to limit the variability of US entry, and I do not understand why you want to kill them in order to lower US entry variability.

                                  Hubert

                                  devinc@... a écrit :
                                  I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that happened anyways.

                                  -----Original Message-----
                                  From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                  To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                  Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                  Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                                  Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                  is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the
                                  border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits, one
                                  might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                  increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                  holding Paris).


                                  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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                                  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                • hfloystad
                                  I belong to the group that think that the USSR should not be able to stuff the border in 1941, anyway, except perhaps in a lucky 10%-30% of the games. So I
                                  Message 16 of 20 , Apr 7, 2006
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                                    I belong to the group that think that the USSR should not be able to
                                    stuff the border in 1941, anyway, except perhaps in a lucky 10%-30%
                                    of the games. So I would prefer to give Germany some extra garrison
                                    value (or some garrison chits) for taking Paris. Call it political
                                    capital, if you like.


                                    --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, devinc@... wrote:
                                    >
                                    > I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of
                                    chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that
                                    happened anyways.
                                    >
                                    > -----Original Message-----
                                    > From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                    > To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                    > Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                    > Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of
                                    USE events
                                    >
                                    >
                                    > Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                    > is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff
                                    the
                                    > border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits,
                                    one
                                    > might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                    > increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                    > holding Paris).
                                    >
                                    >
                                    > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                    >
                                  • Bill Popovich
                                    Or give more chits based on attacking with too little garrison (for US entry). Perhaps all chits above the points needed to keep the Germans from normally
                                    Message 17 of 20 , Apr 8, 2006
                                    • 0 Attachment
                                      Or give more chits based on attacking with too little garrison (for US
                                      entry). Perhaps all chits above the points needed to keep the Germans from
                                      normally attacking go to the US! Then both sides get something from a
                                      historical deployment, if you choose.

                                      -----Original Message-----
                                      From: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com [mailto:wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com]
                                      On Behalf Of hfloystad
                                      Sent: Friday, April 07, 2006 8:01 AM
                                      To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                      Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events

                                      I belong to the group that think that the USSR should not be able to
                                      stuff the border in 1941, anyway, except perhaps in a lucky 10%-30%
                                      of the games. So I would prefer to give Germany some extra garrison
                                      value (or some garrison chits) for taking Paris. Call it political
                                      capital, if you like.


                                      --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, devinc@... wrote:
                                      >
                                      > I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of
                                      chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that
                                      happened anyways.
                                      >
                                      > -----Original Message-----
                                      > From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                      > To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                      > Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                      > Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of
                                      USE events
                                      >
                                      >
                                      > Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                      > is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff
                                      the
                                      > border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits,
                                      one
                                      > might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                      > increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                      > holding Paris).
                                      >
                                      >
                                      > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                      >








                                      Yahoo! Groups Links
                                    • FHB Gamer
                                      I and a few others discussed this a couple of years ago, the catch we had was if you went over the 10 mark (either way) then the USE roll could be tried for
                                      Message 18 of 20 , Apr 14, 2006
                                      • 0 Attachment
                                        I and a few others discussed this a couple of years ago, the catch we had
                                        was if you went over the '10' mark (either way) then the USE roll could be
                                        tried for the remainder if you wanted (usually done by the Axis when USE
                                        getting close to gear ups etc. But some times
                                        US would do it just to try and get a quick jump, best was getting a 6+ USE
                                        when you had 9 :) However only got to try it once and we started working on
                                        alternate Victory conditions ala Empire at arms.

                                        Finally some one mentioned LoC going the way of the Unicorn,
                                        Is that true, is ADG out of the LoC business?
                                        IF so I need to ask HArry if I can have the rights to it to revive it on my
                                        own.
                                        ----- Original Message -----
                                        From: "Dave LeLacheur" <lelacheur@...>
                                        To: <wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com>
                                        Sent: Monday, April 03, 2006 9:47 AM
                                        Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                                        > Hey, I just suggested that last week, and no one commented, sniff! I
                                        > think it'll work fine. You'll need 4 markers for both entry and
                                        > tension in the 2 pools. Markers can go from -9 to +9; when you get to
                                        > 10 you gain or lose a chit. Should help smooth out entry a good
                                        > deal. Hope you try it!
                                        >
                                        > Cheers,
                                        > Dave L.
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > At 9:31 AM -0500 4/3/06, tbell wrote:
                                        >>It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by two
                                        >>variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit value.
                                        >>Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put forward the
                                        >>suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep track of
                                        >>the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is pulled
                                        >>from
                                        >>the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but would
                                        >>be
                                        >>interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                                        >>experience
                                        >>with this system of USE.
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>Tom Bell
                                        >>Reliant Commercial
                                        >>1800 St. James Place
                                        >>Suite 450
                                        >>Houston, Texas 77056
                                        >>713-974-7575
                                        >>fax-975-0876
                                        >>www.reliantcommercial.com
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>--
                                        >>No virus found in this outgoing message.
                                        >>Checked by AVG Free Edition.
                                        >>Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299 - Release Date: 3/31/2006
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>Yahoo! Groups Links
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >>
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > --
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Cheers,
                                        >
                                        > Dave LeLacheur
                                        > lelacheur@...
                                        > Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader
                                        >
                                        > *****************************************************************
                                        > Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                                        > online business career self-assessment program on the
                                        > internet: CareerLeader.
                                        > *****************************************************************
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Yahoo! Groups Links
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
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