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RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events

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  • Wendell Albright
    Never tried it, but I like the idea. USE advances will still be randomized by the chit draws, but reduces luck a little bit in a way that seems a wash for the
    Message 1 of 20 , Apr 3 7:34 AM
      Never tried it, but I like the idea. USE
      advances will still be randomized by the chit
      draws, but reduces luck a little bit in a way
      that seems a wash for the Axis and Allies.

      Oh, and on the idea of changing values of the
      chits (while retaining the same average for a
      year's chits) - I do like the idea, but I would
      retain some zero chits (although fewer than now)
      to avoid absolute certainty.

      Cheers,

      Wendell

      --- tbell <tbell@...> wrote:

      > It seems that the variance in USE is largely
      > due to the impacted by two
      > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the
      > variance in the chit value.
      > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground
      > control and put forward the
      > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE
      > actions and just keep track of
      > the value of each action. Once a side goes
      > over the 9 a chit is pulled from
      > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup.
      > I like the idea, but would be
      > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF
      > listers who have had experience
      > with this system of USE.
      >
      >
      > Tom Bell
      > Reliant Commercial
      > 1800 St. James Place
      > Suite 450
      > Houston, Texas 77056
      > 713-974-7575
      > fax-975-0876
      > www.reliantcommercial.com
      >
      >
      > --
      > No virus found in this outgoing message.
      > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
      > Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299
      > - Release Date: 3/31/2006
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > Yahoo! Groups Links
      >
      > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wifdiscussion/
      >
      > wifdiscussion-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >


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    • Dave LeLacheur
      Hey, I just suggested that last week, and no one commented, sniff! I think it ll work fine. You ll need 4 markers for both entry and tension in the 2 pools.
      Message 2 of 20 , Apr 3 7:47 AM
        Hey, I just suggested that last week, and no one commented, sniff! I
        think it'll work fine. You'll need 4 markers for both entry and
        tension in the 2 pools. Markers can go from -9 to +9; when you get to
        10 you gain or lose a chit. Should help smooth out entry a good
        deal. Hope you try it!

        Cheers,
        Dave L.


        At 9:31 AM -0500 4/3/06, tbell wrote:
        >It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by two
        >variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit value.
        >Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put forward the
        >suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep track of
        >the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is pulled from
        >the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but would be
        >interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had experience
        >with this system of USE.
        >
        >
        >Tom Bell
        >Reliant Commercial
        >1800 St. James Place
        >Suite 450
        >Houston, Texas 77056
        >713-974-7575
        >fax-975-0876
        >www.reliantcommercial.com
        >
        >
        >--
        >No virus found in this outgoing message.
        >Checked by AVG Free Edition.
        >Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299 - Release Date: 3/31/2006
        >
        >
        >
        >
        >
        >Yahoo! Groups Links
        >
        >
        >
        >


        --


        Cheers,

        Dave LeLacheur
        lelacheur@...
        Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader

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      • tfancher@saginaw-mi.com
        We did exactly this in our last game. Worked pretty well, and was not complicated. We just kept a running tally. There are a few variations on this. Rather
        Message 3 of 20 , Apr 3 8:03 AM
          We did exactly this in our last game. Worked pretty well, and was not
          complicated. We just kept a running tally. There are a few variations on
          this. Rather than waiting to get to +1.0, we allowed one roll in-between.
          If it was at, say, +0.6, the Allies could make the roll if they wanted.
          If they won, they got a chit and the number was reset to -0.4. If they
          last the roll, they got no chit and the number stayed at 0.6. The only
          change that made is whether a chit came in a turn earlier. You still got
          the same number. The Axis ahd the same option when the number ventured
          into negative territory.

          Human nature being what it is, the griping did not stop. It just changed
          to initiative rolls, weather rolls and naval search rolls.




          "tbell" <tbell@...>
          Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
          04/03/2006 10:31 AM
          Please respond to wifdiscussion


          To: <wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com>
          cc:
          Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


          It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by two
          variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit value.
          Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put forward the
          suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep track of
          the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is pulled
          from
          the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but would
          be
          interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
          experience
          with this system of USE.


          Tom Bell
          Reliant Commercial
          1800 St. James Place
          Suite 450
          Houston, Texas 77056
          713-974-7575
          fax-975-0876
          www.reliantcommercial.com


          --
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          Checked by AVG Free Edition.
          Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299 - Release Date: 3/31/2006





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        • hfloystad
          We have tried this, too. It works rather well with some US players, and less well with others. To be statistically correct , the sum should be rounded to the
          Message 4 of 20 , Apr 3 9:25 AM
            We have tried this, too. It works rather well with some US players,
            and less well with others.

            To be statistically "correct", the sum should be rounded to the
            closest integer. Always rounding down produces slightly too low US
            entry at any point in the game.

            The first time we tried this, I was playing the US, I still did not
            get option warr appr until jul/aug of 42. (Gear up came in nov/dec
            of 41). This was the effect of a combination of bad luck and
            deliberate strategy.

            --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, tfancher@... wrote:
            >
            > We did exactly this in our last game. Worked pretty well, and was
            not
            > complicated. We just kept a running tally. There are a few
            variations on
            > this. Rather than waiting to get to +1.0, we allowed one roll in-
            between.
            > If it was at, say, +0.6, the Allies could make the roll if they
            wanted.
            > If they won, they got a chit and the number was reset to -0.4. If
            they
            > last the roll, they got no chit and the number stayed at 0.6. The
            only
            > change that made is whether a chit came in a turn earlier. You
            still got
            > the same number. The Axis ahd the same option when the number
            ventured
            > into negative territory.
            >
            > Human nature being what it is, the griping did not stop. It just
            changed
            > to initiative rolls, weather rolls and naval search rolls.
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > "tbell" <tbell@...>
            > Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
            > 04/03/2006 10:31 AM
            > Please respond to wifdiscussion
            >
            >
            > To: <wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com>
            > cc:
            > Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry &
            fixed value of USE events
            >
            >
            > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
            by two
            > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
            value.
            > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
            forward the
            > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
            track of
            > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
            pulled
            > from
            > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
            but would
            > be
            > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
            > experience
            > with this system of USE.
            >
            >
            > Tom Bell
            > Reliant Commercial
            > 1800 St. James Place
            > Suite 450
            > Houston, Texas 77056
            > 713-974-7575
            > fax-975-0876
            > www.reliantcommercial.com
            >
            >
            > --
            > No virus found in this outgoing message.
            > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
            > Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299 - Release Date:
            3/31/2006
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > Yahoo! Groups Links
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
            >
          • RG1066@aol.com
            I like the idea mostly, but I would also roll for any left over entry at the end of a year and give the US player some ability to choose to roll for any left
            Message 5 of 20 , Apr 3 9:38 AM
              I like the idea mostly, but I would also roll for any left over entry at the end of a year and give the US player some ability to choose to roll for any left over positive entry and the axis the choice to roll for left over negative entry at some point; maybe at the end of any turn where no US entry events occured? Otherwise I could see a side doing actions to get the number up to 9 and then doing nothing for a long time, in effect delaying a US chit until the end of a year.

              Rich Gause

              -----Original Message-----
              From: Wendell Albright <wifwendell@...>
              To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
              Sent: Mon, 3 Apr 2006 07:34:31 -0700 (PDT)
              Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


              Never tried it, but I like the idea. USE
              advances will still be randomized by the chit
              draws, but reduces luck a little bit in a way
              that seems a wash for the Axis and Allies.

              Oh, and on the idea of changing values of the
              chits (while retaining the same average for a
              year's chits) - I do like the idea, but I would
              retain some zero chits (although fewer than now)
              to avoid absolute certainty.

              Cheers,

              Wendell

              --- tbell <tbell@...> wrote:

              > It seems that the variance in USE is largely
              > due to the impacted by two
              > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the
              > variance in the chit value.
              > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground
              > control and put forward the
              > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE
              > actions and just keep track of
              > the value of each action. Once a side goes
              > over the 9 a chit is pulled from
              > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup.
              > I like the idea, but would be
              > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF
              > listers who have had experience
              > with this system of USE.
              >
              >
              > Tom Bell
              > Reliant Commercial
              > 1800 St. James Place
              > Suite 450
              > Houston, Texas 77056
              > 713-974-7575
              > fax-975-0876
              > www.reliantcommercial.com
              >
              >
              > --
              > No virus found in this outgoing message.
              > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
              > Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299
              > - Release Date: 3/31/2006
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > Yahoo! Groups Links
              >
              > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wifdiscussion/
              >
              > wifdiscussion-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >


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              [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
            • tfancher@saginaw-mi.com
              Which is why we instituted our way. You get one chance to roll whenever it is +1-9 (or -1-9). RG1066@aol.com Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com 04/03/2006
              Message 6 of 20 , Apr 3 11:45 AM
                Which is why we instituted our way. You get one chance to roll whenever
                it is +1-9 (or -1-9).




                RG1066@...
                Sent by: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                04/03/2006 12:38 PM
                Please respond to wifdiscussion


                To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                cc:
                Subject: Re: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                I like the idea mostly, but I would also roll for any left over entry at
                the end of a year and give the US player some ability to choose to roll
                for any left over positive entry and the axis the choice to roll for left
                over negative entry at some point; maybe at the end of any turn where no
                US entry events occured? Otherwise I could see a side doing actions to
                get the number up to 9 and then doing nothing for a long time, in effect
                delaying a US chit until the end of a year.

                Rich Gause

                -----Original Message-----
                From: Wendell Albright <wifwendell@...>
                To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                Sent: Mon, 3 Apr 2006 07:34:31 -0700 (PDT)
                Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                Never tried it, but I like the idea. USE
                advances will still be randomized by the chit
                draws, but reduces luck a little bit in a way
                that seems a wash for the Axis and Allies.

                Oh, and on the idea of changing values of the
                chits (while retaining the same average for a
                year's chits) - I do like the idea, but I would
                retain some zero chits (although fewer than now)
                to avoid absolute certainty.

                Cheers,

                Wendell

                --- tbell <tbell@...> wrote:

                > It seems that the variance in USE is largely
                > due to the impacted by two
                > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the
                > variance in the chit value.
                > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground
                > control and put forward the
                > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE
                > actions and just keep track of
                > the value of each action. Once a side goes
                > over the 9 a chit is pulled from
                > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup.
                > I like the idea, but would be
                > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF
                > listers who have had experience
                > with this system of USE.
                >
                >
                > Tom Bell
                > Reliant Commercial
                > 1800 St. James Place
                > Suite 450
                > Houston, Texas 77056
                > 713-974-7575
                > fax-975-0876
                > www.reliantcommercial.com
                >
                >
                > --
                > No virus found in this outgoing message.
                > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
                > Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299
                > - Release Date: 3/31/2006
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >
                > Yahoo! Groups Links
                >
                > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wifdiscussion/
                >
                > wifdiscussion-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >


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              • lbinflorida42
                It s an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem is the chit values and
                Message 7 of 20 , Apr 3 10:52 PM
                  It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                  variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem is
                  the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of getting
                  zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2 but
                  they can still both be zero's.

                  BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO that's
                  the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll for
                  tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a chit
                  with a value greater than zero to increase tension.

                  In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts with
                  or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                  tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or keeps
                  moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                  personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                  proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                  excited. YMMV.

                  Lane



                  --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@...> wrote:
                  >
                  > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by
                  two
                  > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                  value.
                  > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                  forward the
                  > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                  track of
                  > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                  pulled from
                  > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but
                  would be
                  > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                  experience
                  > with this system of USE.
                  >
                  >
                  > Tom Bell
                • hfloystad
                  Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry chits: http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls (right column for each year are the
                  Message 8 of 20 , Apr 4 6:26 AM
                    Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry
                    chits:

                    http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls

                    (right column for each year are the chits that we use)

                    Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably around
                    may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that the
                    variance would be low enough now for this not to happen. (Estimated
                    average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41 and
                    jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4 turns
                    early).

                    To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                    simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                    modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34 as
                    well as the associated standard deviation.

                    I noticed two things that I found interesting
                    - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit pool
                    - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit pool, i
                    expected it to fall a lot more.

                    The expected war app turn is:
                    Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8 turns
                    Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns

                    The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                    distribution.

                    I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so little,
                    is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                    partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                    partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.

                    I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as long as
                    both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same region.

                    While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem very
                    much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game. Note
                    that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.

                    Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big a
                    luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined. (Variance, ie
                    stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is probably
                    bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the 2d10
                    table during a game.

                    Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals about all
                    German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                    about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany manages
                    to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of supply
                    in Egypt.

                    Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is equivalent
                    to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11 gives
                    you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from you.
                    Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you with -
                    100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will more
                    than double this.

                    Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on production
                    reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This will
                    ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or jan/feb42
                    with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in sept/oct41
                    or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will still
                    hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                    bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.

                    Now, lets talk about the weather, again....


                    --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                    <lbinflorida42@...> wrote:
                    >
                    > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                    > variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem
                    is
                    > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                    getting
                    > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2
                    but
                    > they can still both be zero's.
                    >
                    > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO
                    that's
                    > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll
                    for
                    > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a
                    chit
                    > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                    >
                    > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts
                    with
                    > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                    > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                    keeps
                    > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                    > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                    > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                    > excited. YMMV.
                    >
                    > Lane
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                    > >
                    > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
                    by
                    > two
                    > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                    > value.
                    > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                    > forward the
                    > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                    > track of
                    > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                    > pulled from
                    > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
                    but
                    > would be
                    > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                    > experience
                    > > with this system of USE.
                    > >
                    > >
                    > > Tom Bell
                    >
                  • kenzclark
                    Very interesting. Thanks! stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation means
                    Message 9 of 20 , Apr 4 7:30 AM
                      Very interesting. Thanks!

                      stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

                      For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                      means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41, there
                      is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a 96%
                      chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.

                      So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a +/-
                      5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.

                      Ken

                      --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@...> wrote:
                      >
                      > Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry
                      > chits:
                      >
                      > http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                      >
                      > (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                      >
                      > Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably around
                      > may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that the
                      > variance would be low enough now for this not to happen. (Estimated
                      > average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41 and
                      > jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4 turns
                      > early).
                      >
                      > To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                      > simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                      > modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34 as
                      > well as the associated standard deviation.
                      >
                      > I noticed two things that I found interesting
                      > - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit pool
                      > - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit pool, i
                      > expected it to fall a lot more.
                      >
                      > The expected war app turn is:
                      > Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8 turns
                      > Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                      >
                      > The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                      > distribution.
                      >
                      > I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so little,
                      > is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                      > partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                      > partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                      >
                      > I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as long as
                      > both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same region.
                      >
                      > While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem very
                      > much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game. Note
                      > that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                      >
                      > Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big a
                      > luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined. (Variance, ie
                      > stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is probably
                      > bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the 2d10
                      > table during a game.
                      >
                      > Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals about all
                      > German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                      > about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany manages
                      > to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of supply
                      > in Egypt.
                      >
                      > Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is equivalent
                      > to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11 gives
                      > you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from you.
                      > Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you with -
                      > 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will more
                      > than double this.
                      >
                      > Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on production
                      > reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This will
                      > ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or jan/feb42
                      > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in sept/oct41
                      > or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will still
                      > hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                      > bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                      >
                      > Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                      >
                      >
                      > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                      > <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                      > >
                      > > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                      > > variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem
                      > is
                      > > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                      > getting
                      > > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2
                      > but
                      > > they can still both be zero's.
                      > >
                      > > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO
                      > that's
                      > > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll
                      > for
                      > > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a
                      > chit
                      > > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                      > >
                      > > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts
                      > with
                      > > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                      > > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                      > keeps
                      > > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                      > > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                      > > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                      > > excited. YMMV.
                      > >
                      > > Lane
                      > >
                      > >
                      > >
                      > > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                      > > >
                      > > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
                      > by
                      > > two
                      > > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                      > > value.
                      > > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                      > > forward the
                      > > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                      > > track of
                      > > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                      > > pulled from
                      > > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
                      > but
                      > > would be
                      > > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                      > > experience
                      > > > with this system of USE.
                      > > >
                      > > >
                      > > > Tom Bell
                      > >
                      >
                    • Dave LeLacheur
                      Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more aggressive change to
                      Message 10 of 20 , Apr 4 7:38 AM
                        Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values
                        drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more
                        aggressive change to centralize chit values would have even more
                        impact. Definitely worth thinking about.

                        Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that it
                        was publicly available.

                        Thanks,
                        Dave L.


                        At 2:30 PM +0000 4/4/06, kenzclark wrote:
                        >Very interesting. Thanks!
                        >
                        >stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
                        >
                        >For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                        >means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41, there
                        >is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a 96%
                        >chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.
                        >
                        >So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a +/-
                        >5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.
                        >
                        >Ken
                        >
                        >--- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@...> wrote:
                        >>
                        >> Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US entry
                        >> chits:
                        >>
                        >> http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                        >>
                        >> (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                        >>
                        >> Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably around
                        >> may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that the
                        >> variance would be low enough now for this not to happen. (Estimated
                        >> average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41 and
                        >> jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4 turns
                        >> early).
                        >>
                        >> To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                        >> simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                        >> modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34 as
                        >> well as the associated standard deviation.
                        >>
                        >> I noticed two things that I found interesting
                        >> - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit pool
                        >> - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit pool, i
                        >> expected it to fall a lot more.
                        >>
                        >> The expected war app turn is:
                        >> Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8 turns
                        >> Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                        >>
                        >> The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                        >> distribution.
                        >>
                        >> I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so little,
                        >> is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                        >> partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                        >> partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                        >>
                        >> I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as long as
                        >> both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same region.
                        >>
                        >> While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem very
                        >> much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game. Note
                        >> that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                        >>
                        >> Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big a
                        >> luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined. (Variance, ie
                        >> stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is probably
                        >> bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the 2d10
                        >> table during a game.
                        >>
                        >> Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals about all
                        >> German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                        >> about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany manages
                        >> to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of supply
                        >> in Egypt.
                        >>
                        >> Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is equivalent
                        >> to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11 gives
                        >> you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from you.
                        >> Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you with -
                        >> 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will more
                        >> than double this.
                        >>
                        >> Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on production
                        >> reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This will
                        >> ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or jan/feb42
                        > > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in sept/oct41
                        >> or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will still
                        >> hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                        >> bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                        >>
                        >> Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                        >>
                        >>
                        >> --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                        >> <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                        >> >
                        >> > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                        >> > variability to some degree I have always thought the major problem
                        >> is
                        >> > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                        >> getting
                        >> > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always get 2
                        >> but
                        >> > they can still both be zero's.
                        >> >
                        >> > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension? IMHO
                        >> that's
                        >> > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to roll
                        >> for
                        >> > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over a
                        >> chit
                        >> > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                        >> >
                        >> > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US starts
                        >> with
                        >> > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved over to
                        >> > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                        >> keeps
                        >> > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                        >> > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and this
                        >> > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally not real
                        >> > excited. YMMV.
                        >> >
                        >> > Lane
                        >> >
                        >> >
                        >> >
                        >> > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                        >> > >
                        >> > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted
                        >> by
                        >> > two
                        >> > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit
                        >> > value.
                        >> > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put
                        >> > forward the
                        >> > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep
                        >> > track of
                        >> > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is
                        >> > pulled from
                        >> > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea,
                        >> but
                        >> > would be
                        >> > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                        >> > experience
                        >> > > with this system of USE.
                        >> > >
                        >> > >
                        >> > > Tom Bell
                        >> >
                        >>
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >Yahoo! Groups Links
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >


                        --


                        Cheers,

                        Dave LeLacheur
                        lelacheur@...
                        Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader

                        *****************************************************************
                        Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                        online business career self-assessment program on the
                        internet: CareerLeader.
                        *****************************************************************
                      • hfloystad
                        Patrik published links to his simulations on this list a couple of weeks back, i think. Searhing the list should get you there in no time. As for the chit
                        Message 11 of 20 , Apr 5 3:51 AM
                          Patrik published links to his simulations on this list a couple of
                          weeks back, i think. Searhing the list should get you there in no
                          time.

                          As for the chit selection, it is fairly centralized already, or at
                          least about as much as you can with two sets of chits available,
                          when trying to combine two sets. To decrese the STDV significantly
                          by changing chits, one would have to "smear" the low chits of 1940
                          info 1939 and 1941, avoiding most of the 0's and 1's in 40' and most
                          of the 3's and 4's in 39' and 41'.

                          Still, I guess that this would reduce the STDV more than about
                          another .2 to .3. To reduce the STDV further, one would really have
                          to stop rolling for fractional chits from actions, and instead keep
                          track of them like what has been suggested in some posts.

                          --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...>
                          wrote:
                          >
                          > Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values
                          > drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more
                          > aggressive change to centralize chit values would have even more
                          > impact. Definitely worth thinking about.
                          >
                          > Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                          it
                          > was publicly available.
                          >
                          > Thanks,
                          > Dave L.
                          >
                          >
                          > At 2:30 PM +0000 4/4/06, kenzclark wrote:
                          > >Very interesting. Thanks!
                          > >
                          > >stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
                          > >
                          > >For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                          > >means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41,
                          there
                          > >is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a
                          96%
                          > >chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.
                          > >
                          > >So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a
                          +/-
                          > >5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.
                          > >
                          > >Ken
                          > >
                          > >--- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@>
                          wrote:
                          > >>
                          > >> Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US
                          entry
                          > >> chits:
                          > >>
                          > >> http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                          > >>
                          > >> (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                          > >>
                          > >> Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably
                          around
                          > >> may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that
                          the
                          > >> variance would be low enough now for this not to happen.
                          (Estimated
                          > >> average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41
                          and
                          > >> jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4
                          turns
                          > >> early).
                          > >>
                          > >> To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                          > >> simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                          > >> modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34
                          as
                          > >> well as the associated standard deviation.
                          > >>
                          > >> I noticed two things that I found interesting
                          > >> - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit
                          pool
                          > >> - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit
                          pool, i
                          > >> expected it to fall a lot more.
                          > >>
                          > >> The expected war app turn is:
                          > >> Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8
                          turns
                          > >> Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                          > >>
                          > >> The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                          > >> distribution.
                          > >>
                          > >> I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so
                          little,
                          > >> is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                          > >> partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                          > >> partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                          > >>
                          > >> I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as
                          long as
                          > >> both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same
                          region.
                          > >>
                          > >> While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem
                          very
                          > >> much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game.
                          Note
                          > >> that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                          > >>
                          > >> Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big
                          a
                          > >> luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined.
                          (Variance, ie
                          > >> stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is
                          probably
                          > >> bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the
                          2d10
                          > >> table during a game.
                          > >>
                          > >> Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals
                          about all
                          > >> German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                          > >> about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany
                          manages
                          > >> to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of
                          supply
                          > >> in Egypt.
                          > >>
                          > >> Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is
                          equivalent
                          > >> to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11
                          gives
                          > >> you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from
                          you.
                          > >> Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you
                          with -
                          > >> 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will
                          more
                          > >> than double this.
                          > >>
                          > >> Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on
                          production
                          > >> reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This
                          will
                          > >> ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or
                          jan/feb42
                          > > > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in
                          sept/oct41
                          > >> or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will
                          still
                          > >> hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                          > >> bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                          > >>
                          > >> Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >> --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                          > >> <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                          > >> >
                          > >> > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                          > >> > variability to some degree I have always thought the major
                          problem
                          > >> is
                          > >> > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                          > >> getting
                          > >> > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always
                          get 2
                          > >> but
                          > >> > they can still both be zero's.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension?
                          IMHO
                          > >> that's
                          > >> > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to
                          roll
                          > >> for
                          > >> > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over
                          a
                          > >> chit
                          > >> > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US
                          starts
                          > >> with
                          > >> > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved
                          over to
                          > >> > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                          > >> keeps
                          > >> > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                          > >> > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and
                          this
                          > >> > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally
                          not real
                          > >> > excited. YMMV.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > Lane
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                          > >> > >
                          > >> > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the
                          impacted
                          > >> by
                          > >> > two
                          > >> > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the
                          chit
                          > >> > value.
                          > >> > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and
                          put
                          > >> > forward the
                          > >> > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and
                          just keep
                          > >> > track of
                          > >> > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a
                          chit is
                          > >> > pulled from
                          > >> > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the
                          idea,
                          > >> but
                          > >> > would be
                          > >> > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who
                          have had
                          > >> > experience
                          > >> > > with this system of USE.
                          > >> > >
                          > >> > >
                          > >> > > Tom Bell
                          > >> >
                          > >>
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >Yahoo! Groups Links
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > >
                          >
                          >
                          > --
                          >
                          >
                          > Cheers,
                          >
                          > Dave LeLacheur
                          > lelacheur@...
                          > Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader
                          >
                          > *****************************************************************
                          > Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                          > online business career self-assessment program on the
                          > internet: CareerLeader.
                          > *****************************************************************
                          >
                        • hfloystad
                          Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance, is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the border, if they go for
                          Message 12 of 20 , Apr 5 3:53 AM
                            Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                            is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the
                            border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits, one
                            might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                            increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                            holding Paris).

                            --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...>
                            wrote:
                            >
                            > Yeah, I was impressed that such a small change to the chit values
                            > drove the SD down by 0.2; that is nothing to sneeze about. A more
                            > aggressive change to centralize chit values would have even more
                            > impact. Definitely worth thinking about.
                            >
                            > Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                            it
                            > was publicly available.
                            >
                            > Thanks,
                            > Dave L.
                            >
                            >
                            > At 2:30 PM +0000 4/4/06, kenzclark wrote:
                            > >Very interesting. Thanks!
                            > >
                            > >stats: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
                            > >
                            > >For those without a statistical background, 1.0 standard deviation
                            > >means that if the average (mean) gear-up date is (say) M/J '41,
                            there
                            > >is a 78% chance that the gear up will take place +/- one month, a
                            96%
                            > >chance of +/- 2 turns and a 99% chance of +/- 3 turns.
                            > >
                            > >So a 1.8 or 1.6 standard deviation really means that there is a
                            +/-
                            > >5.4 or +/- 4.8 turn variance 99% of the time. Quite a lot.
                            > >
                            > >Ken
                            > >
                            > >--- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "hfloystad" <haakoflo@>
                            wrote:
                            > >>
                            > >> Our group has two ongoing games where we use the following US
                            entry
                            > >> chits:
                            > >>
                            > >> http://folk.uio.no/gautebi/wifpages2/Usentry.xls
                            > >>
                            > >> (right column for each year are the chits that we use)
                            > >>
                            > >> Both games still appear to get very early war appr., probably
                            around
                            > >> may/june 41. This was a bit dissapointing, since we hoped that
                            the
                            > >> variance would be low enough now for this not to happen.
                            (Estimated
                            > >> average war app for the strategies used are between nov/dec 41
                            and
                            > >> jan/feb 42, which means that the option seems to be coming 3-4
                            turns
                            > >> early).
                            > >>
                            > >> To test the effect of the new chits, I downloaded Fredrik's
                            > >> simmulator (great program, btw!) and fed it with our setup, and
                            > >> modified it, so that it calculates everage time for option 34
                            as
                            > >> well as the associated standard deviation.
                            > >>
                            > >> I noticed two things that I found interesting
                            > >> - The mean option 34 turn fell by 0.1 when using the new chit
                            pool
                            > >> - The standard deviation only fell by 0.2 with the new chit
                            pool, i
                            > >> expected it to fall a lot more.
                            > >>
                            > >> The expected war app turn is:
                            > >> Original AfA chits : 14.5 (nov/dec 41 or jan/feb 42) +/- 1.8
                            turns
                            > >> Modified chits : 14.4 +/- 1.6 turns
                            > >>
                            > >> The first point is obviously due to the asymmetry of the
                            > >> distribution.
                            > >>
                            > >> I guess the reason that the standard deviation changes by so
                            little,
                            > >> is partyly that there is still some variance in the chit pools,
                            > >> partly that chits from different years are quite different, and
                            > >> partly that rolls for draws are still quite important.
                            > >>
                            > >> I have also tried by testin other strategic setups, and as
                            long as
                            > >> both sides are moderate, they tend to end up in the same
                            region.
                            > >>
                            > >> While a standard deviation of 1.8 or 1.6 turns does not seem
                            very
                            > >> much, it still means about 100 bp during the course of a game.
                            Note
                            > >> that this is STANDARD deviation, not max deviaton.
                            > >>
                            > >> Given a per-battle standard deviation of 2bp, 100 bp is as big
                            a
                            > >> luck element as 2500 individual land battles combined.
                            (Variance, ie
                            > >> stdv^2 is additive.) Ie, the luck element from US entry is
                            probably
                            > >> bigger than the combined luck element from all rolls on the
                            2d10
                            > >> table during a game.
                            > >>
                            > >> Other ways to look at it, is that this luck element equals
                            about all
                            > >> German or russian production from in 39 and 40, or the total of
                            > >> about 2 very successfull summer attack turns, where Germany
                            manages
                            > >> to pocket a large soviet pocket, or catch the english out of
                            supply
                            > >> in Egypt.
                            > >>
                            > >> Esentially, the pure luck factor involved in US entry is
                            equivalent
                            > >> to a single roll of 2d10, where every number you get above 11
                            gives
                            > >> you 25 bp, and every number you get below takes 25bp away from
                            you.
                            > >> Typical rolls of 7 or 15 (the stdv of 2d10 is 4) leaves you
                            with -
                            > >> 100 bp or +100bp respectively. Extreme results (2 or 20) will
                            more
                            > >> than double this.
                            > >>
                            > >> Ideally, I would like to see the stdv from US Entry on
                            production
                            > >> reduced from 100 bp to about 25 bp, or about 0.4 turns. This
                            will
                            > >> ensure that in most games option 34 comes in nov/dec 41 or
                            jan/feb42
                            > > > with the strategy referred to above, with a few games in
                            sept/oct41
                            > >> or mar/apr 42. Missing the average by more than 1 turn will
                            still
                            > >> hurt a bit, but not be decisive, and player actions should be a
                            > >> bigger part of the variation of entry time than before.
                            > >>
                            > >> Now, lets talk about the weather, again....
                            > >>
                            > >>
                            > >> --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "lbinflorida42"
                            > >> <lbinflorida42@> wrote:
                            > >> >
                            > >> > It's an interesting idea and while I agree it would decrease
                            > >> > variability to some degree I have always thought the major
                            problem
                            > >> is
                            > >> > the chit values and specifically the zeros'. Thus instead of
                            > >> getting
                            > >> > zero to 5 chits for taking 5 CH cities the US will always
                            get 2
                            > >> but
                            > >> > they can still both be zero's.
                            > >> >
                            > >> > BTW are you going to use the same procedure for tension?
                            IMHO
                            > >> that's
                            > >> > the really crucial issue. You not only need enough entry to
                            roll
                            > >> for
                            > >> > tension but you have to not only make the roll but move over
                            a
                            > >> chit
                            > >> > with a value greater than zero to increase tension.
                            > >> >
                            > >> > In my experience the real problem with USE is when the US
                            starts
                            > >> with
                            > >> > or quickly gains some high value chits and gets them moved
                            over to
                            > >> > tension right away *or* has trouble generating tension and/or
                            > >> keeps
                            > >> > moving over zero's and one's. Since that is the dynamic I've
                            > >> > personally identified as having the most impact on USE and
                            this
                            > >> > proposal does not address it in any manner I'm personally
                            not real
                            > >> > excited. YMMV.
                            > >> >
                            > >> > Lane
                            > >> >
                            > >> >
                            > >> >
                            > >> > --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, "tbell" <tbell@> wrote:
                            > >> > >
                            > >> > > It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the
                            impacted
                            > >> by
                            > >> > two
                            > >> > > variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the
                            chit
                            > >> > value.
                            > >> > > Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and
                            put
                            > >> > forward the
                            > >> > > suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and
                            just keep
                            > >> > track of
                            > >> > > the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a
                            chit is
                            > >> > pulled from
                            > >> > > the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the
                            idea,
                            > >> but
                            > >> > would be
                            > >> > > interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who
                            have had
                            > >> > experience
                            > >> > > with this system of USE.
                            > >> > >
                            > >> > >
                            > >> > > Tom Bell
                            > >> >
                            > >>
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >Yahoo! Groups Links
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >
                            > >
                            >
                            >
                            > --
                            >
                            >
                            > Cheers,
                            >
                            > Dave LeLacheur
                            > lelacheur@...
                            > Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader
                            >
                            > *****************************************************************
                            > Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                            > online business career self-assessment program on the
                            > internet: CareerLeader.
                            > *****************************************************************
                            >
                          • Patrik Manlig
                            ... Here s the link: http://wif.manlig.org (Note: it is not an installable program, but the C++ source code for one. At present, knowledge of C++ is a must if
                            Message 13 of 20 , Apr 5 6:00 AM
                              Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...> wrote:
                              > Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                              > it was publicly available.

                              Here's the link:

                              http://wif.manlig.org

                              (Note: it is not an installable program, but the C++ source code for
                              one. At present, knowledge of C++ is a must if you intend to use it -
                              building a GUI that allows you to customize all parameters would be
                              quite a lot of work, and I have yet to do that.)

                              Dave, I did get your request - I just haven't had the time to consider
                              it yet. Spare time is unfortunately VERY scarce for me, but I'll try to
                              do it - but expect to wait a couple of weeks before I find the time to.

                              --
                              Patrik Manlig <patrik.manlig@...> +46 (0)73 988 55 15
                            • Dave LeLacheur
                              Thanks & no worries Patrik. Kind regards, Dave L. ... -- Cheers, Dave LeLacheur lelacheur@careerleader.com Director of Operations and Customer Service,
                              Message 14 of 20 , Apr 5 6:32 AM
                                Thanks & no worries Patrik.

                                Kind regards,
                                Dave L.

                                At 3:00 PM +0200 4/5/06, Patrik Manlig wrote:
                                >Dave LeLacheur <lelacheur@...> wrote:
                                >> Where does one download Patrik's program? I guessed I missed that
                                >> it was publicly available.
                                >
                                > Here's the link:
                                >
                                > http://wif.manlig.org
                                >
                                > (Note: it is not an installable program, but the C++ source code for
                                > one. At present, knowledge of C++ is a must if you intend to use it -
                                > building a GUI that allows you to customize all parameters would be
                                > quite a lot of work, and I have yet to do that.)
                                >
                                > Dave, I did get your request - I just haven't had the time to consider
                                > it yet. Spare time is unfortunately VERY scarce for me, but I'll try to
                                > do it - but expect to wait a couple of weeks before I find the time to.
                                >
                                >--
                                >Patrik Manlig <patrik.manlig@...> +46 (0)73 988 55 15
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >Yahoo! Groups Links
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >


                                --


                                Cheers,

                                Dave LeLacheur
                                lelacheur@...
                                Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader

                                *****************************************************************
                                Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                                online business career self-assessment program on the
                                internet: CareerLeader.
                                *****************************************************************
                              • devinc@aol.com
                                I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It s about time that happened anyways. ... From:
                                Message 15 of 20 , Apr 5 1:05 PM
                                  I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that happened anyways.

                                  -----Original Message-----
                                  From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                  To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                  Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                  Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                                  Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                  is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the
                                  border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits, one
                                  might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                  increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                  holding Paris).


                                  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                • IA-211-BZ
                                  As I said it before, it is highly probable taht it is an intended part of the game design. you do not declare war to russia, then you have less US entry, but
                                  Message 16 of 20 , Apr 6 4:49 AM
                                    As I said it before, it is highly probable taht it is an intended part of the game design.

                                    you do not declare war to russia, then you have less US entry, but take more chits from the pool, so you get better 1942 chits sooner.

                                    Such mecanism allows to limit the variability of US entry, and I do not understand why you want to kill them in order to lower US entry variability.

                                    Hubert

                                    devinc@... a écrit :
                                    I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that happened anyways.

                                    -----Original Message-----
                                    From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                    To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                    Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                    Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                                    Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                    is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff the
                                    border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits, one
                                    might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                    increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                    holding Paris).


                                    [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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                                    [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                  • hfloystad
                                    I belong to the group that think that the USSR should not be able to stuff the border in 1941, anyway, except perhaps in a lucky 10%-30% of the games. So I
                                    Message 17 of 20 , Apr 7 5:00 AM
                                      I belong to the group that think that the USSR should not be able to
                                      stuff the border in 1941, anyway, except perhaps in a lucky 10%-30%
                                      of the games. So I would prefer to give Germany some extra garrison
                                      value (or some garrison chits) for taking Paris. Call it political
                                      capital, if you like.


                                      --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, devinc@... wrote:
                                      >
                                      > I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of
                                      chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that
                                      happened anyways.
                                      >
                                      > -----Original Message-----
                                      > From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                      > To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                      > Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                      > Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of
                                      USE events
                                      >
                                      >
                                      > Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                      > is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff
                                      the
                                      > border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits,
                                      one
                                      > might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                      > increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                      > holding Paris).
                                      >
                                      >
                                      > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                      >
                                    • Bill Popovich
                                      Or give more chits based on attacking with too little garrison (for US entry). Perhaps all chits above the points needed to keep the Germans from normally
                                      Message 18 of 20 , Apr 8 5:26 AM
                                        Or give more chits based on attacking with too little garrison (for US
                                        entry). Perhaps all chits above the points needed to keep the Germans from
                                        normally attacking go to the US! Then both sides get something from a
                                        historical deployment, if you choose.

                                        -----Original Message-----
                                        From: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com [mailto:wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com]
                                        On Behalf Of hfloystad
                                        Sent: Friday, April 07, 2006 8:01 AM
                                        To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                        Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events

                                        I belong to the group that think that the USSR should not be able to
                                        stuff the border in 1941, anyway, except perhaps in a lucky 10%-30%
                                        of the games. So I would prefer to give Germany some extra garrison
                                        value (or some garrison chits) for taking Paris. Call it political
                                        capital, if you like.


                                        --- In wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com, devinc@... wrote:
                                        >
                                        > I think any change in USE chits must come with a separation of
                                        chits between USE chits and garrison chits. It's about time that
                                        happened anyways.
                                        >
                                        > -----Original Message-----
                                        > From: hfloystad <haakoflo@...>
                                        > To: wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com
                                        > Sent: Wed, 05 Apr 2006 10:53:33 -0000
                                        > Subject: [wifdiscussion] Re: Variable US Entry & fixed value of
                                        USE events
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Another thing that should be noticed about reducing chit variance,
                                        > is that this will give the Soviets almost a 100% chance to stuff
                                        the
                                        > border, if they go for it. So if one uses the new set of chits,
                                        one
                                        > might want to consider using a house rule where Germany can get an
                                        > increased chance to DOW (like adding 20 to the garrison value for
                                        > holding Paris).
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                        >








                                        Yahoo! Groups Links
                                      • FHB Gamer
                                        I and a few others discussed this a couple of years ago, the catch we had was if you went over the 10 mark (either way) then the USE roll could be tried for
                                        Message 19 of 20 , Apr 14 9:17 PM
                                          I and a few others discussed this a couple of years ago, the catch we had
                                          was if you went over the '10' mark (either way) then the USE roll could be
                                          tried for the remainder if you wanted (usually done by the Axis when USE
                                          getting close to gear ups etc. But some times
                                          US would do it just to try and get a quick jump, best was getting a 6+ USE
                                          when you had 9 :) However only got to try it once and we started working on
                                          alternate Victory conditions ala Empire at arms.

                                          Finally some one mentioned LoC going the way of the Unicorn,
                                          Is that true, is ADG out of the LoC business?
                                          IF so I need to ask HArry if I can have the rights to it to revive it on my
                                          own.
                                          ----- Original Message -----
                                          From: "Dave LeLacheur" <lelacheur@...>
                                          To: <wifdiscussion@yahoogroups.com>
                                          Sent: Monday, April 03, 2006 9:47 AM
                                          Subject: RE: [wifdiscussion] Variable US Entry & fixed value of USE events


                                          > Hey, I just suggested that last week, and no one commented, sniff! I
                                          > think it'll work fine. You'll need 4 markers for both entry and
                                          > tension in the 2 pools. Markers can go from -9 to +9; when you get to
                                          > 10 you gain or lose a chit. Should help smooth out entry a good
                                          > deal. Hope you try it!
                                          >
                                          > Cheers,
                                          > Dave L.
                                          >
                                          >
                                          > At 9:31 AM -0500 4/3/06, tbell wrote:
                                          >>It seems that the variance in USE is largely due to the impacted by two
                                          >>variables: rolls on actions by MPs and the variance in the chit value.
                                          >>Major Guy contacted our local WiF game ground control and put forward the
                                          >>suggestion that we adopt a no roll for USE actions and just keep track of
                                          >>the value of each action. Once a side goes over the 9 a chit is pulled
                                          >>from
                                          >>the cup or past 0 one is put back in the cup. I like the idea, but would
                                          >>be
                                          >>interested in hearing the thoughts from WiF listers who have had
                                          >>experience
                                          >>with this system of USE.
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>Tom Bell
                                          >>Reliant Commercial
                                          >>1800 St. James Place
                                          >>Suite 450
                                          >>Houston, Texas 77056
                                          >>713-974-7575
                                          >>fax-975-0876
                                          >>www.reliantcommercial.com
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>--
                                          >>No virus found in this outgoing message.
                                          >>Checked by AVG Free Edition.
                                          >>Version: 7.1.385 / Virus Database: 268.3.4/299 - Release Date: 3/31/2006
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>Yahoo! Groups Links
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >>
                                          >
                                          >
                                          > --
                                          >
                                          >
                                          > Cheers,
                                          >
                                          > Dave LeLacheur
                                          > lelacheur@...
                                          > Director of Operations and Customer Service, CareerLeader
                                          >
                                          > *****************************************************************
                                          > Visit http://www.careerleader.com to preview the best
                                          > online business career self-assessment program on the
                                          > internet: CareerLeader.
                                          > *****************************************************************
                                          >
                                          >
                                          >
                                          > Yahoo! Groups Links
                                          >
                                          >
                                          >
                                          >
                                          >
                                          >
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