Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Delayed conversions

Expand Messages
  • Lars J
    How much time do you allow to pass before a conversion takes place? What is the shelf life for a campaign? After how many days do you consider it unlikely
    Message 1 of 13 , Feb 25, 2007
    • 0 Attachment
      How much time do you allow to pass before a conversion takes place?

      What is the "shelf life" for a campaign?

      After how many days do you consider it unlikely that conversion happened
      thanks to a certain campaign?

      Scenario #1:
      January 1st: John Doe visits your website through a banner ad.
      February 25th: John Doe comes back (through a bookmark or by entering
      your website address) and converts.

      Do you attribute that sale to the banner ad?

      Scenario #2:

      October 2nd, 2006: Alan Smithee visits your website through a sponsored
      link.
      February 25th: Alan Smithee comes back (through a bookmark or by
      entering your website address) and converts.

      Do you attribute that sale to the sponsored link?

      Where do you draw the line?

      Lars
    • robbinsteif
      Oh, I think you ll get lots of responses on this one. My preference (when I get to tell the WA how I want the cookies to work) is to let the cookies persist
      Message 2 of 13 , Feb 25, 2007
      • 0 Attachment
        Oh, I think you'll get lots of responses on this one. My preference
        (when I get to tell the WA how I want the cookies to work) is to let
        the cookies persist until a conversion takes places. So in both cases
        you described, the campaign gets credit (and I believe it should.
        "Believe" being the operative word.) These were easy examples. The
        harder situation is splitting credit. In google analytics, John can
        start with a Google AdWord but then come back to you on a banner ad
        and the banner ad cookie will overwrite the adWord cookie (although
        direct or bookmark would not.) ON the other hand, in SC, you can give
        credit to first referrer, last referrer or split them.

        Robbin

        --- In webanalytics@yahoogroups.com, Lars J <freshflavour@...> wrote:
        >
        > How much time do you allow to pass before a conversion takes place?
        >
        > What is the "shelf life" for a campaign?
        >
        > After how many days do you consider it unlikely that conversion
        happened
        > thanks to a certain campaign?
        >
        > Scenario #1:
        > January 1st: John Doe visits your website through a banner ad.
        > February 25th: John Doe comes back (through a bookmark or by entering
        > your website address) and converts.
        >
        > Do you attribute that sale to the banner ad?
        >
        > Scenario #2:
        >
        > October 2nd, 2006: Alan Smithee visits your website through a sponsored
        > link.
        > February 25th: Alan Smithee comes back (through a bookmark or by
        > entering your website address) and converts.
        >
        > Do you attribute that sale to the sponsored link?
        >
        > Where do you draw the line?
        >
        > Lars
        >
      • Lars J
        Yeah, that s how I have it set right now. There s a risk you ll count one conversion several times in some tools if you allow for a conversion to be attributed
        Message 3 of 13 , Feb 26, 2007
        • 0 Attachment
          Yeah, that's how I have it set right now.

          There's a risk you'll count one conversion several times in some tools
          if you allow for a conversion to be attributed to several campaigns.

          Lars


          robbinsteif wrote:

          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
        • Lars J
          How about this: Scenario #3: November 3: Jane Doe visits your website through a banner ad. December 5: Jane Doe visits your website through a sponsored link
          Message 4 of 13 , Feb 26, 2007
          • 0 Attachment
            How about this:

            Scenario #3:
            November 3: Jane Doe visits your website through a banner ad.
            December 5: Jane Doe visits your website through a sponsored link on
            Google.
            January 13: Jane Doe visits your website through a sponsored link on Yahoo.
            February 25th: Jane Doe comes back (through a bookmark or by entering
            your website address) and converts.

            You would attribute that conversion to the banner ad, Google and Yahoo.

            How would you measure CPO then, Robbin?

            If a conversion is counted multiple times the calculated CPO per
            campaign will be misleading.

            Lars

            [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          • Wandering Dave Rhee
            Hi, Lars, Robbin s right -- every analyst has their own answer to this one, and often more than one! I tend to fall back on the old standby: It Depends. What
            Message 5 of 13 , Feb 26, 2007
            • 0 Attachment
              Hi, Lars,

              Robbin's right -- every analyst has their own answer to this one, and often
              more than one!

              I tend to fall back on the old standby: It Depends.

              What are the buying cycle and customer lifecycle like? If it's a
              small-value, frequently (re-)purchased commodity item, such as pet toys, I'd
              say go with a shorter-term conversion, and cut off any campaign credit after
              the immediate visit, or maybe 15 days.

              On the other hand, if your product is something large or expensive,
              high-consideration, and exclusive, such as a luxury automobile with only one
              dealer in the region, or perhaps real estate, then you might keep a cookie
              for a year and credit it accordingly.

              For items "in the middle," it's open to argument or interpretation, how much
              one campaign deserves credit v. a second or third. One argument that I tend
              to favor is that only the last campaign deserves credit, since any prior
              ones failed to convert during their visits. Perhaps they were promotional
              in a way that was not appealing, while only the final (converting) campaign
              was. This tends to discount the brand- and trust-building effects of
              earlier campaigns, but it may even out over time (e.g., sometimes campaign
              type A is first, other times type B is first, so they "steal" from each
              other evenly). Also, it tends to weight paid search higher than banners,
              since someone may truly remember the banner, yet when they decide to return
              to the site (whose URL they've forgotten), they pull it up via paid search.
              (They may also pull it up by natural search, but that doesn't usually
              "compete" with other campaigns for ROI / ROAS, while paid search fights with
              banners for your ad dollars.)

              WDave


              [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
            • Oliver Schiffers
              Hi Lars, I found it useful to attribute each campaign, partner, sponsored link or attribute a percentage of the conversion depending on the number of days ago
              Message 6 of 13 , Feb 27, 2007
              • 0 Attachment
                Hi Lars,

                I found it useful to attribute each campaign, partner, sponsored link or
                attribute a percentage of the conversion depending on the number of days ago
                the user was exposed to it. (Longer ago / less percentage)
                It is not the usual case that someone converts after being exposed to
                different campaign - but as the different campaigns might have catched the
                user in different stages of AIDA each one should get credit for it. The user
                might not be initially interested if he had not seen the first and he might
                not have come back if not seen the last hint or campaign to the site or
                product...

                Regards,
                Oliver

                [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
              • gpolkin5
                Hello all, This is a definitely a topic we are wrestling with as an ecommerce company. I am curious how much flexibility the big web analytics vendors provide
                Message 7 of 13 , Feb 27, 2007
                • 0 Attachment
                  Hello all,

                  This is a definitely a topic we are wrestling with as an ecommerce
                  company.

                  I am curious how much flexibility the big web analytics vendors
                  provide in terms of attribution logic? In a perfect world I would
                  like to have the ability to view results based on last click prior
                  to sale attribution AND alternatively based on all ad clicks in the
                  period prior to the purchase. The combination of these two views
                  would provide the most insights into the role of different ad
                  options. Can anyone share which vendors provide multiple views as a
                  standard rather than custom offering?

                  Also how do vendors deal with the mid session visits to Froogle or
                  other sites? I know some vendors only record ad interactions that
                  start a session. While this makes sense in most cases it doesn't
                  provide a clear view how affiliate sites, comparison shopping
                  engines, etc. are used by our visitors.

                  Even if I can get these alternative reporting options I think it
                  will be a challenge to incorporate multiple measurement approaches
                  into a bid optimization tool.

                  Thanks in advance for any enlightenment you can provide.

                  Greg
                • David Yoakum
                  We at the Gap have also tried a few different techniques to report on delayed conversions. We use Omniture and set 3 different variables when a visitor clicks
                  Message 8 of 13 , Feb 27, 2007
                  • 0 Attachment
                    We at the Gap have also tried a few different techniques to report on
                    delayed conversions. We use Omniture and set 3 different variables
                    when a visitor clicks through any paid placement which expire at 3
                    different times. This allows us to understand the differences between
                    direct and delayed conversions. However, we generally use a 7-day
                    window for most reporting purposes. We assume anything beyond 7 days
                    was not directly influenced by that paid placement. Anything beyond
                    that is considered an indirect influencer.

                    Omniture also allows us to set a variable to allocate purchases across
                    multiple click-throughs in a given time period. For example, if
                    someone clicked though 5 different keywords and finally purchases $100
                    on the last one, we have a report that allocates $20 to each keyword.
                    This is another way of measuring the influence of paid placements even
                    if they are not the final click before purchase.

                    The bottom line is we use the 7-day window drives our actionable
                    reporting. However, we use these other techniques to do deeper dives
                    on how direct and delayed conversion differ.

                    -David Yoakum
                    Gap.com, OldNavy.com, BananaRepublic.com, Piperlime.com
                  • matt.jacobs
                    Lars, this is something I ve spent a great deal of time analyzing and testing for nearly a decade now...and it s no less controversial today than it was back
                    Message 9 of 13 , Feb 28, 2007
                    • 0 Attachment
                      Lars, this is something I've spent a great deal of time analyzing and testing for nearly a
                      decade now...and it's no less controversial today than it was back then! You have two
                      groups to look at
                      1. Click-based visitors (those who click and land/convert)
                      2. View-based visitors (those who see or are exposed, don't click and land/convert)

                      These two groups are important to distinguish because visitor quality and volume often
                      differs significantly between them, and when you start conducting tests to fully optimize
                      both audience groups from "ad side" to "site side," there are things you'll want to consider
                      in your test design for each.

                      The basics.... First off, you'll want to make sure you can get pretty granular data - user-
                      level if possible with segmented post-click and post-view data. You'll want to review your
                      attributions in hourly time increments (you'll be looking at time to conversion from the
                      click and the view). Second, be mindful of the consideration/purchase hurdle ($10 vs.
                      $1,000). Third, think about the brand - does it have a lot of equity (Nike) or not (Joe's
                      Junk)? With all of that in hand and mind, you'll want to analyze the decay curves of your
                      post-click and post-view segments by those hourly increments I mentioned above. You'll
                      likely find basic similarities in the decay curves, with post-click being much more
                      aggressive and immediate than post-view. You'll find your success metrics (say,
                      conversion rate) also vary substantially between these groups. And you'll also likely find
                      that there are spikes that occur in your post-view data every 24 hours, which is associated
                      with user browsing patterns (diluted among those spikes are arguably conversion
                      attributions). Once you have your decay curves, you can make some basic determinations
                      on the conversion window you want to accept. I've worked with numerous Fortune 50-500
                      clients on this over the years and most wind up
                      (a) giving post-click attribution credit for conversions within a 1-5 hour timeframe
                      (b) giving post-view attribution credit for conversions within 24, 48 or 72 hours. Some
                      have a more extended 5 or 7 day windows but not too many.

                      For the sake of this string, I didn't go into the granular details. Drop me an email if you
                      really want to get into the guts of this - from tracking to the various types of testing you
                      can do to prove this stuff out, and more (it's important to note that web analytic tools are
                      actually NOT the most appropriate or recommended tools to be using for tracking and
                      testing this - they help but they're very limited. People who really understand digital media
                      optimization know exactly what I'm talking about - it's very different from "web analytics."
                      It's also important to note that assigning 100% attribution credit to the last click or
                      exposure is fundamentally flawed and absolutely not advised...don't optimize against that
                      unless it's SEM). There's a massive amount of research behind this stuff, including how to
                      correctly attribute across digital touch points/marketing channels. Unfortunately, much of
                      the research is conducted by agencies with a wealth of experience in this area like Digitas
                      and AA-RF, but that research is done on behalf of their clients and the granular details
                      aren't out there for public consumption.

                      Best,

                      Matt (matt@...)
                      http://digitalmediaanalytics.com/
                    • Lars J
                      Thanks for all the insightful responses. Say you are told: Sell as much as you can as long as you do not exceed a cost per order of x dollars per campaign!
                      Message 10 of 13 , Mar 1, 2007
                      • 0 Attachment
                        Thanks for all the insightful responses.

                        Say you are told:
                        "Sell as much as you can as long as you do not exceed a cost per order
                        of x dollars per campaign!"

                        Say this happens prior to conversion:

                        1) You look at a banner (CPM) - Campaign #1
                        2) You click on a different banner (CPC) - Campaign #2
                        4) You click on a sponsored link (CPC) - Campaign #3
                        3) You convert through an affiliate network (CPA) - Campaign #4

                        What is the CPO per campaign?

                        I would like to hear how more of you approach this question.

                        Lars


                        -----------------------------------------------------------------
                        In response to:
                        http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/webanalytics/message/9593
                      • Oliver Schiffers
                        Hi Lars, In this case It is as it is, you pay for times the campaign, the Conversion just happens one time. This is why you might come back with an additonal
                        Message 11 of 13 , Mar 1, 2007
                        • 0 Attachment
                          Hi Lars,

                          In this case It is as it is, you pay for times the campaign, the Conversion
                          just happens one time.
                          This is why you might come back with an additonal KPI (like looking at an
                          eCPM) where you "Sell as much as you can as long as you do not exceed an
                          _average_ cost per order of x dollar" over _all_ campaigns.
                          Because conversion might not have happened if you would only have one of
                          these campaigns.

                          Cheers,
                          Oliver

                          On 01/03/07, Lars J <freshflavour@...> wrote:
                          >
                          > Thanks for all the insightful responses.
                          >
                          > Say you are told:
                          > "Sell as much as you can as long as you do not exceed a cost per order
                          > of x dollars per campaign!"
                          >
                          > Say this happens prior to conversion:
                          >
                          > 1) You look at a banner (CPM) - Campaign #1
                          > 2) You click on a different banner (CPC) - Campaign #2
                          > 4) You click on a sponsored link (CPC) - Campaign #3
                          > 3) You convert through an affiliate network (CPA) - Campaign #4
                          >
                          > What is the CPO per campaign?
                          >
                          > I would like to hear how more of you approach this question.
                          >
                          > Lars
                          >
                          > ----------------------------------------------------------
                          > In response to:
                          > http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/webanalytics/message/9593
                          >
                          >


                          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                        • martincwesley
                          Lars & Group, This is my first post to the group, and have been watching the threads for some time, and this one appears to be right in my sweet spot. The
                          Message 12 of 13 , Mar 1, 2007
                          • 0 Attachment
                            Lars & Group,

                            This is my first post to the group, and have been watching the
                            threads for some time, and this one appears to be right in my sweet
                            spot.

                            The digital technologies that you all have been mentioning on the
                            post for some time all rely on the "last click or Last view logic" to
                            attribute credit for a conversion. We all know that is a flawed
                            methodology as it minimizes the entire effect frequency has in the
                            marketing and media mix.

                            The other challenge is that typically you will all have more than one
                            delivery technology in play with different cookie spaces. For
                            example, there has been a lot of reference on this post to Omniture
                            as the site analytics and search tool. The challenge is that your
                            affiliate and your ad server impressions files are in different
                            cookie spaces, and this is what leads to duplicate conversions or
                            incorrect attribution of the "credit".

                            From a top level you need to:

                            1. Sync all the cookie spaces across all your digital channel
                            technologies (Email, PPC, Natural, PI, Ad Server, Rich Media Server,
                            Affiliate Server, etcÂ…) Then you need to tie that to your Account ID
                            and Order/Trans ID system from your CRM or finance.
                            2. Once that is done you then need to run logic that looks at an
                            individual activity on your site or a subsequent transaction in your
                            call center, and analyze that user to everything that they have been
                            exposed to in modern time. You will need to store the data at the
                            level of time stamps across the entire sync'd cookie/User ID database.
                            3. Now you will never really analyze on an individual cookie,
                            but what you will do is cluster say your 3 or 4 main customer
                            segments, and then you will apply data models that will enable you to
                            analyze a group of like customers and what the creative, media and
                            frequency of consumption was prior to the conversion event. You will
                            need to take into account the type and impact of each interaction in
                            this model. For example, a branded search term vs. unbranded. A
                            468x60 vs. a 120x120, rich or not rich, interactions or no
                            interactions, etcÂ… This is media mix modeling.
                            4. Data size for any average customer will range between 20 and
                            30Gig of data a day that will need to be normalized and stored
                            indefinitely.
                            5. Here is an article I wrote on the topic not long ago that
                            entails traditional media overlays as well:
                            http://directmag.com/disciplines/marketing_right_combination_2/index.h
                            tml

                            Hope that helps.

                            Martin Wesley, BlackFoot Inc.
                            martin@...



                            --- In webanalytics@yahoogroups.com, Lars J <freshflavour@...> wrote:
                            >
                            > Thanks for all the insightful responses.
                            >
                            > Say you are told:
                            > "Sell as much as you can as long as you do not exceed a cost per
                            order
                            > of x dollars per campaign!"
                            >
                            > Say this happens prior to conversion:
                            >
                            > 1) You look at a banner (CPM) - Campaign #1
                            > 2) You click on a different banner (CPC) - Campaign #2
                            > 4) You click on a sponsored link (CPC) - Campaign #3
                            > 3) You convert through an affiliate network (CPA) - Campaign #4
                            >
                            > What is the CPO per campaign?
                            >
                            > I would like to hear how more of you approach this question.
                            >
                            > Lars
                            >
                            >
                            > -----------------------------------------------------------------
                            > In response to:
                            > http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/webanalytics/message/9593
                            >
                          • matt.jacobs
                            Lars, not sure what you re trying to get at here. If you have a tracking solution that s mapped/incorporated across those digital touch points, the CPO should
                            Message 13 of 13 , Mar 1, 2007
                            • 0 Attachment
                              Lars, not sure what you're trying to get at here. If you have a
                              tracking solution that's mapped/incorporated across those digital
                              touch points, the CPO should reflect costs associated with each
                              touch point (whether you choose to include production, agency and/or
                              operational costs beyond your media expenditures is up to you).

                              If you're asking about audience quality, attribution and the
                              influence of one touch point as incremental (positive or negative)
                              to another, then what you're asking about can be answered in a
                              multitude of ways, including but not limited to the following:
                              1. Via media mix modeling (I'll spare others the length of that
                              reply in this forum)
                              2. Via audience value segmentation by channel (OLA vs. sponsored
                              link vs. affiliate, etc.)
                              3. Via allowance for "portfolio management" of CPO
                              4. By combinations of 1, 2, and 3 above.
                              5. By user-level analysis (which can be done within #1 above if you
                              have the right data - time consuming but it answers your question
                              and many others more completely than other methods)

                              Each approach is different, but all will yield data that highlight
                              the - or give a proxy for - different "quality" of users from each
                              channel. With enough data you can model what the LTV might be for
                              each, your optimal mix and what your CPO ranges can be for a given
                              channel and user type.

                              ~Matt

                              http://DigitalMediaAnalytics.com
                            Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.