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Re: [ujeni] Most of you are smart, what are your thoughts?

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  • John Patten
    Matt, I read the whole thing and don t know whether to commit suicide or go bowling. I put this synthetic oil from Mobile in my car once and it worked great.
    Message 1 of 2 , Apr 21, 2005

      I read the whole thing and don't know whether to
      commit suicide or go bowling.

      I put this synthetic oil from Mobile in my car once
      and it worked great. Can't we just make a big batch of
      that stuff?

      Actually, I agree people don't like to be confused
      with reality. We have to wait until things
      deteriorate, but then still may not see it.

      On balance, some other unforeseen factors inevitably
      come into play that were not part of the equation at
      the time. I'm not confident with current
      neoconservatives driving some of this, but can take
      solace in the fact that the article appeared in
      Rolling Stone, and in the same issue they said Nelly
      had really phat rhymes, so it's not infallible.

      I saw on Battlestar Galactica once that many of those
      spacecraft run on electro-magnetism. Is anyone
      exploring that? Those things seem kind of heavy just
      to sit there in the air.

      In the meantime, I'm going to build a small cottage on
      Likoma to run to, and grow small plants for


      --- Matthew McNulty <mcnurty@...> wrote:

      > >The Long Emergency
      > >
      > >What's going to happen as we start running out of
      > cheap gas to guzzle?
      > >
      > >Rolling Stone.com, March 2005
      > >
      > >
      > >A few weeks ago, the price of oil ratcheted above
      > fifty-five dollars a
      > >barrel, which is about twenty dollars a barrel more
      > than a year ago.
      > The
      > >next day, the oil story was buried on page six of
      > the New York Times
      > >business section. Apparently, the price of oil is
      > not considered
      > >significant
      > >news, even when it goes up five bucks a barrel in
      > the span of ten
      > days.
      > >That
      > >same day, the stock market shot up more than a
      > hundred points because,
      > CNN
      > >said, government data showed no signs of inflation.
      > Note to clueless
      > >nation:
      > >Call planet Earth.
      > >
      > >Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology,
      > famously remarked that
      > "people
      > >cannot stand too much reality." What you're about
      > to read may
      > challenge
      > >your
      > >assumptions about the kind of world we live in, and
      > especially the
      > kind of
      > >world into which events are propelling us. We are
      > in for a rough ride
      > >through uncharted territory.
      > >
      > >It has been very hard for Americans -- lost in dark
      > raptures of
      > nonstop
      > >infotainment, recreational shopping and compulsive
      > motoring -- to make
      > >sense
      > >of the gathering forces that will fundamentally
      > alter the terms of
      > everyday
      > >life in our technological society. Even after the
      > terrorist attacks of
      > >9/11,
      > >America is still sleepwalking into the future. I
      > call this coming time
      > the
      > >Long Emergency.
      > >
      > >Most immediately we face the end of the
      > cheap-fossil-fuel era. It is
      > no
      > >exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of
      > cheap oil and natural
      > gas
      > >underlie everything we identify as the necessities
      > of modern life --
      > not to
      > >mention all of its comforts and luxuries: central
      > heating, air
      > >conditioning,
      > >cars, airplanes, electric lights, inexpensive
      > clothing, recorded
      > music,
      > >movies, hip-replacement surgery, national defense
      > -- you name it.
      > >
      > >The few Americans who are even aware that there is
      > a gathering
      > >global-energy
      > >predicament usually misunderstand the core of the
      > argument. That
      > argument
      > >states that we don't have to run out of oil to
      > start having severe
      > problems
      > >with industrial civilization and its dependent
      > systems. We only have
      > to
      > >slip
      > >over the all-time production peak and begin a slide
      > down the arc of
      > steady
      > >depletion.
      > >
      > >The term "global oil-production peak" means that a
      > turning point will
      > come
      > >when the world produces the most oil it will ever
      > produce in a given
      > year
      > >and, after that, yearly production will inexorably
      > decline. It is
      > usually
      > >represented graphically in a bell curve. The peak
      > is the top of the
      > curve,
      > >the halfway point of the world's all-time total
      > endowment, meaning
      > half the
      > >world's oil will be left. That seems like a lot of
      > oil, and it is, but
      > >there's a big catch: It's the half that is much
      > more difficult to
      > extract,
      > >far more costly to get, of much poorer quality and
      > located mostly in
      > places
      > >where the people hate us. A substantial amount of
      > it will never be
      > >extracted.
      > >
      > >The United States passed its own oil peak -- about
      > 11 million barrels
      > a day
      > >-- in 1970, and since then production has dropped
      > steadily. In 2004 it
      > ran
      > >just above 5 million barrels a day (we get a tad
      > more from natural-gas
      > >condensates). Yet we consume roughly 20 million
      > barrels a day now.
      > That
      > >means we have to import about two-thirds of our
      > oil, and the ratio
      > will
      > >continue to worsen.
      > >
      > >The U.S. peak in 1970 brought on a portentous
      > change in geoeconomic
      > power.
      > >Within a few years, foreign producers, chiefly
      > OPEC, were setting the
      > price
      > >of oil, and this in turn led to the oil crises of
      > the 1970s. In
      > response,
      > >frantic development of non-OPEC oil, especially the
      > North Sea fields
      > of
      > >England and Norway, essentially saved the West's
      > ass for about two
      > decades.
      > >Since 1999, these fields have entered depletion.
      > Meanwhile, worldwide
      > >discovery of new oil has steadily declined to
      > insignificant levels in
      > 2003
      > >and 2004.
      > >
      > >Some "cornucopians" claim that the Earth has
      > something like a creamy
      > nougat
      > >center of "abiotic" oil that will naturally
      > replenish the great oil
      > fields
      > >of the world. The facts speak differently. There
      > has been no
      > replacement
      > >whatsoever of oil already extracted from the fields
      > of America or any
      > other
      > >place.
      > >
      > >Now we are faced with the global oil-production
      > peak. The best
      > estimates of
      > >when this will actually happen have been somewhere
      > between now and
      > 2010. In
      > >2004, however, after demand from burgeoning China
      > and India shot up,
      > and
      > >revelations that Shell Oil wildly misstated its
      > reserves, and Saudi
      > Arabia
      > >proved incapable of goosing up its production
      > despite promises to do
      > so,
      > >the
      > >most knowledgeable experts revised their
      > predictions and now concur
      > that
      > >2005 is apt to be the year of all-time global peak
      > production.
      > >
      > >It will change everything about how we live.
      > >
      === message truncated ===

      "Think of where man's glory most begins and ends, and say my glory was I had such friends." Yeats

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