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Re: [ujeni] AIDS in Africa - UNAIDS methodology

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  • Scott Geibel
    Close Paul... we ll give you a cigar for putting it in the simplest of terms. I consulted a couple of colleagues of mine who used to work at UNAIDS (or the GPA
    Message 1 of 6 , Dec 1, 2000
      Close Paul... we'll give you a cigar for putting it in the simplest of terms. 
       
      I consulted a couple of colleagues of mine who used to work at UNAIDS (or the GPA as it was known then under the WHO), and they agree with all of our suspicions that estimating the world and country-specific prevalences and incidences of new cases is indeed a flawed process.  I'm told they indeed used to base their figures on much of these antenatal screenings (such as the 33% QECH sample that Paul alludes to), and not much else up until fairly recently.  They would gather their figures, get together and sit at a table, and then come up with what they believed was the best minimum estimates of both urban and rural settings for each of these countries--described as a "delphi" process, since it was almost like people consulting the Oracle at Delphi to find an answer to their prevalence questions.
       
      These days, the process is believed to be improved and a bit more interactive than it used to be.  While still far from perfect, figures are gathered from each country based on what information and epidemiologic studies and findings are done in these areas.  They mix a sort of meta-analysis with educated speculation, and then they take this back to in-country experts to get their opinion on the estimates.
       
      Right now, USAID and I believe the CDC is girding themselves for a massive infusion of international AIDS funding in fiscal year 2001, as a result of the AIDS bill passed in September.  The CDC is great with surveillance systems, and perhaps we will see a lot of improvement in the way the epidemic is measured in the next couple of years.
       
      Scott
       
       
      ------------------------------
       
      Paul said:
       
      They go to a hospital this year on this day.  They count the AIDS victims.  
      Then they come back next month, next year, etc., and count the umber of
      cases, minus the number who have died, then they have their new
      number...Very scientific, just like their extrapolations of 33% infection
      among city dwellers they were tossing around about five years
      back.
    • Bell, Elizabeth
      As Scott mentioned, because of the huge increased funding CDC has started an international HIV/AIDS program, the LIFE initiative (can t remember what it stands
      Message 2 of 6 , Dec 1, 2000
        As Scott mentioned, because of the huge increased funding CDC has started an international HIV/AIDS program, the LIFE initiative (can't remember what it stands for Leadership etc etc - you know the government and acronyms), a major component of which is HIV surveillance.  I suspect it will be a mix of biological (seroprevalence of HIV plus indicator diseases like other STDs and TB) and behavioral surveillance systems.  We'll see what approaches they use, but as of now, from my corner in polio, I don't know much more than that.
         
        Ask me about current global AFP surveillance - THAT I know.
         
        -----Original Message-----
        From: Scott Geibel [mailto:scottgeibel@...]
        Sent: Friday, December 01, 2000 10:44 AM
        To: ujeni@egroups.com
        Subject: Re: [ujeni] AIDS in Africa - UNAIDS methodology

        Close Paul... we'll give you a cigar for putting it in the simplest of terms. 
         
        I consulted a couple of colleagues of mine who used to work at UNAIDS (or the GPA as it was known then under the WHO), and they agree with all of our suspicions that estimating the world and country-specific prevalences and incidences of new cases is indeed a flawed process.  I'm told they indeed used to base their figures on much of these antenatal screenings (such as the 33% QECH sample that Paul alludes to), and not much else up until fairly recently.  They would gather their figures, get together and sit at a table, and then come up with what they believed was the best minimum estimates of both urban and rural settings for each of these countries--described as a "delphi" process, since it was almost like people consulting the Oracle at Delphi to find an answer to their prevalence questions.
         
        These days, the process is believed to be improved and a bit more interactive than it used to be.  While still far from perfect, figures are gathered from each country based on what information and epidemiologic studies and findings are done in these areas.  They mix a sort of meta-analysis with educated speculation, and then they take this back to in-country experts to get their opinion on the estimates.
         
        Right now, USAID and I believe the CDC is girding themselves for a massive infusion of international AIDS funding in fiscal year 2001, as a result of the AIDS bill passed in September.  The CDC is great with surveillance systems, and perhaps we will see a lot of improvement in the way the epidemic is measured in the next couple of years.
         
        Scott
         
         
        ------------------------------
         
        Paul said:
         
        They go to a hospital this year on this day.  They count the AIDS victims.  
        Then they come back next month, next year, etc., and count the umber of
        cases, minus the number who have died, then they have their new
        number...Very scientific, just like their extrapolations of 33% infection
        among city dwellers they were tossing around about five years
        back.

      • Bell, Elizabeth
        P.S. Ella Lacey is with us in India working under the auspices of UNICEF on the NIDs there. I visited her in the field in Bihar last month and she, as one
        Message 3 of 6 , Dec 1, 2000
          P.S.  Ella Lacey is with us in India working under the auspices of UNICEF on the NIDs there.  I visited her in the field in Bihar last month and she, as one might suspect, is doing really well - so well she's extending into the new year.  If anyone wants her e-mail address let me know.
           
          Liz
          -----Original Message-----
          From: Scott Geibel [mailto:scottgeibel@...]
          Sent: Friday, December 01, 2000 10:44 AM
          To: ujeni@egroups.com
          Subject: Re: [ujeni] AIDS in Africa - UNAIDS methodology

          Close Paul... we'll give you a cigar for putting it in the simplest of terms. 
           
          I consulted a couple of colleagues of mine who used to work at UNAIDS (or the GPA as it was known then under the WHO), and they agree with all of our suspicions that estimating the world and country-specific prevalences and incidences of new cases is indeed a flawed process.  I'm told they indeed used to base their figures on much of these antenatal screenings (such as the 33% QECH sample that Paul alludes to), and not much else up until fairly recently.  They would gather their figures, get together and sit at a table, and then come up with what they believed was the best minimum estimates of both urban and rural settings for each of these countries--described as a "delphi" process, since it was almost like people consulting the Oracle at Delphi to find an answer to their prevalence questions.
           
          These days, the process is believed to be improved and a bit more interactive than it used to be.  While still far from perfect, figures are gathered from each country based on what information and epidemiologic studies and findings are done in these areas.  They mix a sort of meta-analysis with educated speculation, and then they take this back to in-country experts to get their opinion on the estimates.
           
          Right now, USAID and I believe the CDC is girding themselves for a massive infusion of international AIDS funding in fiscal year 2001, as a result of the AIDS bill passed in September.  The CDC is great with surveillance systems, and perhaps we will see a lot of improvement in the way the epidemic is measured in the next couple of years.
           
          Scott
           
           
          ------------------------------
           
          Paul said:
           
          They go to a hospital this year on this day.  They count the AIDS victims.  
          Then they come back next month, next year, etc., and count the umber of
          cases, minus the number who have died, then they have their new
          number...Very scientific, just like their extrapolations of 33% infection
          among city dwellers they were tossing around about five years
          back.

        • Paul DEVER
          A great and successful way to combat STD transmission, and would probably cost less. Send out surveillants to monitor people. I will follow you during the
          Message 4 of 6 , Dec 1, 2000
            A great and successful way to combat STD transmission, and would probably
            cost less. Send out surveillants to monitor people. I will follow you
            during the day and night. I will let you go to bed with your spouse, or
            significant other, and only that person for five years. You give me per diem
            and cover my travel.

            This is a bit ludicrous, but owuld work. If I am watching over you, ou are
            not goig to try anything stupid...like a certain PCV I know from years back
            that went with a <<person of pleasure>> on the eve of his departure...hmmm I
            will not say if this person was an HIV educator or not...
            _____________________________________________________________________________________
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          • Bell, Elizabeth
            my plan b involved condoms and crazy glue. nuff said. plan c - saltpeter in the malawian sugar supply. ... From: Paul DEVER [mailto:pcpaul@hotmail.com] Sent:
            Message 5 of 6 , Dec 1, 2000
              my plan b involved condoms and crazy glue. 'nuff said.

              plan c - saltpeter in the malawian sugar supply.

              -----Original Message-----
              From: Paul DEVER [mailto:pcpaul@...]
              Sent: Friday, December 01, 2000 12:29 PM
              To: ujeni@egroups.com
              Subject: RE: [ujeni] AIDS in Africa - UNAIDS methodology


              A great and successful way to combat STD transmission, and would probably
              cost less. Send out surveillants to monitor people. I will follow you
              during the day and night. I will let you go to bed with your spouse, or
              significant other, and only that person for five years. You give me per diem

              and cover my travel.

              This is a bit ludicrous, but owuld work. If I am watching over you, ou are
              not goig to try anything stupid...like a certain PCV I know from years back
              that went with a <<person of pleasure>> on the eve of his departure...hmmm I

              will not say if this person was an HIV educator or not...
              ____________________________________________________________________________
              _________
              Get more from the Web. FREE MSN Explorer download : http://explorer.msn.com
            • Paul DEVER
              Actually, the mere thoguht of Paul Dever following someone around while they are trying to conjugate shoiuld turn most people off from the start... Maybe mix
              Message 6 of 6 , Dec 1, 2000
                Actually, the mere thoguht of Paul Dever following someone around while they
                are trying to conjugate shoiuld turn most people off from the start...

                Maybe mix M'chape with the saltpeter, to prevent and cure AIDS at the same
                time!!!!!!!!!

                ----Original Message Follows----
                From: "Bell, Elizabeth" <eib6@...>
                Reply-To: ujeni@egroups.com
                To: "'ujeni@egroups.com'" <ujeni@egroups.com>
                Subject: RE: [ujeni] AIDS in Africa - UNAIDS methodology
                Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 12:34:01 -0500

                my plan b involved condoms and crazy glue. 'nuff said.

                plan c - saltpeter in the malawian sugar supply.

                _____________________________________________________________________________________
                Get more from the Web. FREE MSN Explorer download : http://explorer.msn.com
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