Fwd = Estimated 2,147 space payloads in 2000-2009
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Original Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 00:27:07 +0200
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Teal Mission Model counts 2,147 space payloads in 2000-2009
3 April 2000
[INLINE] The Teal Group estimates that there will be a total of
2,147 payloads to be launch into Earth orbit during the next 10
years, up slightly from last year's estimated total of 2,123
payloads for 1999-2008.
Using its Worldwide Mission Model: 2000-2009 released this week,
Teal Group analysts have sorted the data by customer region;
payload type, mass and orbit; prime contractor, and launch
"The first time we did our Model back in 1992, we counted 656
proposed payloads for the 1993-2002 timeframe,'' said Marco
Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Space Systems
Briefing. "Now, eight years later we observe that the number of
payloads has more than tripled.''
According to the study more than 50% of the payloads are of US
origin. Of those, roughly 75% belong to commercial ventures and
25% to government agencies. Approximately 65% of the payloads are
commercial communications satellites. For the payloads which have
a designated mass, some 57% of them can be classified as small
satellites or smaller, weighing between 1 kilogram and 1,000
kilograms, while 60% of them are destined for low Earth orbit
(LEO), the vast majority to altitudes of between 1,000 kilometres
and 1,500 kilometres.
The Model identifies more than 70 different prime contractors.
According to the study, the top 20 primes account for 62% of the
total payloads. The top five primes-Hughes Space and
Communications, Space Systems/Loral, Alcatel Space Industries,
Motorola Space and Systems Technology, and Orbital Sciences- alone
account for 33%. The Model also identifies more than 30 launch
vehicle programmes. Of the total payloads, only about 46% have a
designated launcher. The top five launch vehicle programmes,
Arianespace's Ariane, Boeing's Delta, International Launch
Services' Proton, NASA's Space Shuttle, and Eurockot Launch
Services' Rockot, account for 64% of the assigned payloads.
"I think the best thing that can be said about the number 2,147 is
that it is a reference point,'' says Caceres. "When people in the
space industry want to know how many satellites will be built and
launched during the next 10 years, they can at least say with some
degree of comfort, 'Well, it's probably going to be more than
1,000 and less than 5,000', although I must say that something
drastic would have to occur within the industry for us to see
anywhere near 5,000 payloads through 2009.''
"The only factor that could create such a market would be an
exponential drop in launch service costs, and we do not foresee
this happening anytime soon, certainly not until reusable launch
vehicle companies start to become serious players, concluded
Teal Group Corp. is an aerospace and defence consulting firm which
provides market intelligence to government and industry. It is
based in Fairfax, Virginia.
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