Friday, December 17, 2010/The December Hammer
Friday, December 17, 2010
Extreme weather sparks global commodities rally - Around the globe, the weather has turned extreme, driving up prices for commodities running the gamut from sugar and wheat to heating oil and orange juice. Australia, for instance, is suffering from both extremes -- with drought in the west and deluges in the east. Heavy snow in Europe and sub-freezing temperatures in the United States are likewise fuelling the weather rally in commodities. Australia typically ranks as second in the league of global SUGAR exporters after Brazil, but rains have forced its top sugar exporter to consider buying raw sugar from its South American rival and from Thailand to keep up with its export commitments to sugar buyers. Brazil too has felt the effects of harsh weather on its sugar. Dryness has hurt yields and cut the volume of cane its crushers expect to process. ICE sugar futures were still hovering near a 30-YEAR HIGH.
Farmers across eastern Australia are assessing the effect of the wettest spring on record. The quality of the waterlogged WHEAT crop is suffering, and much of what is expected to be a record harvest has been downgraded from high-quality wheat used to make noodles in Asia and flat bread in the Middle East to grain fit for animal feed. And in the western part of the continent, drought has cut the annual wheat yield by two-thirds. In China, dry late fall weather may have affected pre-winter development of wheat in some areas. In Europe, snowfall has helped young wheat plants withstand a spell of freezing weather in the European Union's top two producers, France and Germany, but is contributing to sowing delays that threaten Italy's next crop.
In the United States, ice on key grain shipping waterways has slowed the flow of CORN AND SOYBEAN barges from elevators in the U.S. Midwest to export terminals at the Gulf Coast. The thickening ice may close northern sections of the Illinois River later this week. U.S. ORANGE juice futures rallied to a 3-1/2 year peak early this week amid fears that frigid weather would damage the orange crop in the top producing state Florida. And earlier citrus growers in Florida said their groves got mauled by sub-freezing weather overnight.
U.S. HEATING OIL futures hovered near 26-MONTH HIGHS as bitter cold descended on the heavily populated U.S. Northeast, the world's biggest consumer of the wintertime fuel. New snowfalls and frost were expected across Europe from Thursday. French power usage hit an ALL-TIME HIGH Tuesday as temperatures dipped below zero, forcing households to turn up their heating. European spot power prices doubled over the past days with Germany's spot day-ahead prices reaching a year-high, exceeding last January which was one of the coldest months on record. In France, a new power usage peak was expected Wednesday although spare import capacity and a restart of a number of nuclear reactors would help meet demand. In Britain, where the majority of heaters are fuelled by gas, prices were still not far off the peaks observed during the supply crisis this summer.
In China, some parts of the country could run short of COAL, OIL, POWER or GAS at times during the next few winter months. Australia and Indonesia's coal miners have lost production due to flooded mines, and rain has also hampered transportation. The La Nina weather anomaly, which is raising concerns over Argentina's corn and SOY crops, could hit the South American country again next season and cause even worse damage to yields.
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