SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 1:15 PM PhT (05:15 GMT) Sunday 25 December 2016
Next update: Sunday Evening, 25 December 2016
|Current Status and Outlook||Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has gained more strength during the past 6 hours as it continues to move slowly closer Bicol Region endangering the area. Its outer rain bands are now affecting Northern Samar and most of Bicol Region.|
This super typhoon is expected to start accelerating while moving in a westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 21 km/hr. It shall consequently weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol Region and Southern Tagalog Provinces.
*Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-ten (Nina) is forecast to make its first landfall over the island province of Catanduanes tonight.
|Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)?||As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 25…0300 GMT. The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 125.5E), about 140 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 197 km east-northeast of Legazpi City, Albay.|
|How strong is it?||Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 235 kph near the center…Gustiness: 285 kph|
|Where is it heading?||It was moving West @ 14 kph, towards Catanduanes and Camarines Sur.|
|Potential Landfall Area(s)||Over Catanduanes this evening, Dec 25 between 5-7pm, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%; and over Eastern Camarines Sur or Eastern Albay Area between 9-11pm Dec 25, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.|
|What Philippine areas will be most affected?*||:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon|
*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.
|Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+||:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – through Monday morning (Dec 26).|
+Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.
|3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**||MONDAY MORNING: Weakened into a Category 2 Typhoon as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol, Southern Quezon, Mindoro and CaLaBaRZon…about 29 km east-northeast of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro [8AM DEC 26: 13.5N 121.4E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.|
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS) due to entrainment of cold and drier air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) while over the West Philippine Sea. Starts to bend to the southwest…about 325 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [8AM DEC 27: 14.7N 117.3E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Barely a Tropical Storm (TS) and is already over the South China Sea…about 227 km west and out of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility [8AM DEC 28: 13.5N 112.9E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
|Other Storm Info|
> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 475 km (Small)
> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.
|Additional Distances||Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Dec 25, 2016|
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.6º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 160 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 174 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 226 km E of Iriga City, Cam Sur
Distance 4: 249 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 496 km ESE of Metro Manila
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