TS MAYSAK (CHEDENG) Update #017
for Sunday, 05 April 2015 [9:25 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Sunday 05 April 2015
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 05 April 2015
Tropical Storm MAYSAK (CHEDENG) continues to lose strength as it nears Northern Luzon...remains a threat to the area. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela this morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 70 to 90 percent.
Residents and visitors along Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - today through Monday morning (Apr 06).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Quezon incl. Polilio Is., Southern Aurora and Southern Cagayan - today through Monday morning (Apr 06).
- Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Aurora and Eastern Isabela - today.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Apr 05...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.9N 123.1E)
About: 200 km north of Daet, Camarines Norte...or 110 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 30 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 28 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will be moving west-northwest to northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall make landfall along the shores near the Aurora-Isabela border this morning and shall be traversing Northern Luzon crossing Southern Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Abra and Ilocos Sur through the afternoon...and emerging over the coast of Ilocos Sur or West Philippine Sea. By Monday early morning (April 6), Maysak shall be exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (P.A.R.) through the northwestern border on its way to South China Sea.
MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will maintain its weakening trend throughout the forecast period especially when it enters the land mass of Northern Luzon...Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph by Monday early morning, April 6.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea, nearing the northwestern border of P.A.R....weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 235 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [5AM APR 06: 18.9N 118.5E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the northernmost part of the South China Sea...dissipating into an area of Low Pressure...about 270 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China [5AM APR 07: 21.0N 116.4E @ 35kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Apr 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.9º N Lat 123.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km NNW of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 2: 280 km NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 145 km SE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 255 km N of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 160 km ENE of Baler, Aurora__________________________________________________________________________________________________
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:STORMTRACK:
__________________________________________________________________________________________________CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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