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TD BAVI (BETTY) Update #002

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    *for Wednesday, 18 March 2015 [8:00 AM PhT]*
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 17, 2015


      for Wednesday, 18 March 2015 [8:00 AM PhT]

      WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

      TROPICAL DEPRESSION BAVI (BETTY) UPDATE NUMBER 002
      Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 18 March 2015
      Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 18 March 2015


      BAVI (BETTY) has rapidly weakened into a Tropical Depression last night as it tracks over an unfavorable atmospheric conditions across the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea. It is likely to dissipate into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) {aka. Tropical Disturbance) within the next 12 to 24 hours.

      Residents and visitors along the Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Bavi (Betty).

      Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


      CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

      Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


      None.


      CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

      As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Mar 18...2100 GMT.

      Classification/Name: TD Bavi (Betty)
      Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.8N 133.1E)
      About: 975 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 1,175 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
      Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
      24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 5 to 30 mm [Slight to Moderate]
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
      Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 200 km (Midget)
      Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
      Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 14 kph
      Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 16 kph
      Towards: Central Philippine Sea


      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

      TD Bavi (Betty) is expected to move generally west during the next 24 hours, with a turn to the west-southwest on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, Bavi (Betty) will be tracking across the Central through Western parts of the Philippine Sea on Thursday through Friday (Mar 19-20).

      TD Bavi (Betty) will continue to weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours and will dissipate into an area of Low Pressure this evening or Thursday early morning. This is due to the unfavorable atmosphere and relatively colder sea-surface temperatures over the Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 35 kph on Thursday early morning.

      The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

      THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipates into a Low Pressure Area as it tracks due west across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 670 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAR 19: 16.0N 130.0E @ 35kph].
      FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further into a shallow low pressure area as it turns west-southwestward across the western part of the Philippine Sea...about 305 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAR 20: 15.8N 126.0E @ 30kph].
      SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to decay, near the coasts of Aurora and Quezon Provinces...about 70 km east-southeast of Baler, Aurora [2AM MAR 21: 15.5N 122.2E @ 25kph].

      *Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

      Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


      ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

      Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Mar 18, 2015
      Location of Center: Near 15.8º N Lat 133.1º E Lon
      Distance 1: 1050 km ENE of Legazpi City
      Distance 2: 1090 km ENE of Metro Naga
      Distance 3: 1110 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
      Distance 4: 1225 km ENE of Infanta, Quezon
      Distance 5: 1230 km E of Baler, Aurora

      Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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      CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20150317225208.gif&t=1512962192&sig=vtHPigilHTPULHXuX4JCDA--~D

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      CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20150317225313.GIF&t=1512962192&sig=AhJVFsMGlGKNvAeCFncgdQ--~D

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      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2FPS%2FTROP%2Ffloaters%2F03W%2Fimagery%2Frbtop0-lalo.gif&t=1512962192&sig=b.OhqZGE_tYRSKHkH6B0cA--~D


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      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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