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TD 90W (ZORAIDA) Update #008

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    *for Wednesday, 13 November 2013 [8:34 AM PhT]*
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 12 9:25 PM


      for Wednesday, 13 November 2013 [8:34 AM PhT]

      WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

      TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ZORAIDA) UPDATE NUMBER 008
      Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 13 November 2013
      Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 13 November 2013


      Tropical Depression (TD) [ZORAIDA] reorganizing over Sulu Sea as it moves closer to Palawan...could become a Tropical Storm (TS) once it reaches the West Philippine Sea. Its rainbands bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across Palawan.

      Residents and visitors along Mindanao, Visayas and Palawan should closely monitor the development of Zoraida.

      Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

      As of 5:00 am today, the center of TD Zoraida was located over the Sulu Sea...about 180 km east-southeast of San Vicente, Palawan or 230 km east of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr towards Palawan and the West Philippine Sea.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.


      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

      TD Zoraida is expected to rapidly move west to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD Zoraida will be traversing the Palawan on or before noontime today...and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea later this afternoon or evening. It will then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday early morning, passing south of Pagasa Island towards Vietnam. By Friday early morning, Zoraida will be just along the coast of Vietnam, just south of Nha Trang.

      TD Zoraida will gradually intensify within the next 24 hours...and could become a TS today or Thursday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 km/hr by Friday early morning.

      The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

      THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it exits the PAR...passing over the Spratly Islands...about 95 km SSE of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [2AM NOV 14: 10.3N 114.6E @ 65kph].
      FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the coast of Vietnam...intensifies further...about 135 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam [2AM NOV 15: 11.1N 109.5E @ 85kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

      LOOSE RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Palawan and Sulu Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Nov 13, 2013
      Class/Name: TD (Zoraida)
      Location of Center: Near 9.8º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
      Distance 1: 180 km ESE of San Vicente, Palawan
      Distance 2: 180 km SE of Taytay, Palawan
      Distance 3: 230 km E of Puerto Princesa
      Distance 4: 125 km SSW of Cuyo Island
      Distance 5: 180 km S of Amanpulo, Pamalican Is.
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
      Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph
      Towards: Palawan and West Philippine Sea
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

      T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

      __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.typhoon2000.ph%2Fadvisorytrax%2F2013%2Fzoraida08.gif&t=1511524264&sig=8hLfyoZ5JL_r20zB5Piw9Q--~D _____________________________________________________________________________


      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20131112235726.gif&t=1511524264&sig=4sMq6RP8Wx2uHq6PGGOeVw--~D
      __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE
      :



      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2FPS%2FTROP%2Ffloaters%2F90W%2Fimagery%2Frb0-lalo.jpg&t=1511524264&sig=NhDVe.rROSUblInovvUYCg--~D

      __________________________________________________________________________________________________


      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TD 90W (ZORAIDA)...go visit our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

      :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
         
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
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