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TD 90W (ZORAIDA) Update #007

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    *for Tuesday, 12 November 2013 [7:04 PM PhT]*
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 12 3:04 AM


      for Tuesday, 12 November 2013 [7:04 PM PhT]

      WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

      TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ZORAIDA) UPDATE NUMBER 007
      Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 12 November 2013
      Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 13 November 2013


      Tropical Depression (TD) [ZORAIDA] has just crossed the Northeastern Provinces of Mindanao...maintaining its strength and bringing wet weather across most parts of Mindanao and Visayas.

      Residents and visitors along Mindanao, Visayas and Palawan should closely monitor the development of Zoraida.

      Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

      As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TD Zoraida was located over Northeastern Bukidnon...about 80 km east of Cagayan de Oro City or 50 km southwest of Butuan City...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr towards the Bohol Sea.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.


      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

      TD Zoraida is expected to rapidly move west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD Zoraida will be traversing the Bohol Sea tonight...passing south of Negros...and will be over the Sulu Sea by Wednesday early morning. It will cross Northern Palawan by noontime Wednesday and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea in the afternoon. By Thursday morning, TD Zoraida will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) passing south of Pagasa Island towards the South China Sea.

      TD Zoraida will likely intensify within the next 24 hours...and will gain further strength when it reaches the West Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 km/hr by Thursday afternoon.

      The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

      WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly...as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...after crossing the Sulu Sea and Northern Palawan...about 70 km NNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM NOV 13: 10.3N 118.5E @ 55kph].
      THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a minimal Tropical Storm...as it approaches Southeastern Vietnam...about 335 km ESE of Nha Trang, Vietnam [2PM NOV 14: 10.9N 111.9E @ 65kph].
      FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over Central Cambodia...about 50 km NW of Phnom Penh, Cambodia [2PM NOV 15: 12.0N 104.7E @ 35kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

      LOOSE RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Visayas, Western Mindanao and Palawan (click here to know more about Rainbands).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Nov 12, 2013
      Class/Name: TD (Zoraida)
      Location of Center: Near 8.5º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
      Distance 1: 80 km E of Cagayan de Oro City
      Distance 2: 50 km NE of Malaybalay, Bukidnon
      Distance 3: 50 km SW of Butuan City
      Distance 4: 95 km SE of Camiguin Island
      Distance 5: 225 km ESE of Dumaguete City
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
      Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
      Towards: Bohol Sea
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

      T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

      __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.typhoon2000.ph%2Fadvisorytrax%2F2013%2Fzoraida07.gif&t=1511524779&sig=0bsXGDxF27l9SRHffMVvzw--~D _____________________________________________________________________________


      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20131112101902.gif&t=1511524779&sig=miFeIG91JngiLKwvjtvZLA--~D
      __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE
      :



      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2FPS%2FTROP%2Ffloaters%2F90W%2Fimagery%2Frb0-lalo.jpg&t=1511524779&sig=0q9rXyrP75FFP.74BnBowQ--~D

      __________________________________________________________________________________________________


      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TD 90W (ZORAIDA)...go visit our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

      :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
         
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
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