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TD 90W (ZORAIDA) Update #006

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    *for Tuesday, 12 November 2013 [4:06 PM PhT]*
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 12, 2013


      for Tuesday, 12 November 2013 [4:06 PM PhT]

      WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

      TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ZORAIDA) UPDATE NUMBER 006
      Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 12 November 2013
      Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 12 November 2013


      Tropical Depression (TD) [ZORAIDA] has slowed down as it made landfall over Surigao del Sur very close to Bislig City this morning and is now traversing Agusan Del Sur. Its rainbands will continue to bring wet weather across most of Mindanao and Visayas.


      Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Zoraida.

      Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

      As of 11:00 am today, the center of TD Zoraida was located over Surigao Del Sur...about 10 km west of Bislig City or 110 km southeast of Butuan City...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr towards Agusan and Misamis Provinces.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.


      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

      TD Zoraida is expected to move northwest during the next 12 hours then turns west-northwest throughout the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD Zoraida will be traversing Agusan Provinces...and will be over Gingoog Bay, very near Camiguin Island around early this evening. Zoraida will then move across Bohol Sea...passing over Siquijor and Southern Negros very near Dumaguete City between 11 PM to 12 AM...and will emerge over Sulu Sea by early Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, it will cross Palawan...passing just south of San Vicente...and will be over the West Philippine Sea in the evening.

      TD Zoraida will likely maintain its strength within the next 12 hours...and will intensify once the system reaches the Sulu and West Philippine Seas. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 65 km/hr by Thursday morning.

      The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

      WEDNESDAY MORNING: Emerging over the Sulu Sea...after crossing Southern Visayas...about 160 km SE of San Vicente, Palawan [8AM NOV 13: 9.8N 120.6E @ 55kph].
      THURSDAY MORNING: Exiting P.A.R....intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 80 km ENE of Pagasa Island [8AM NOV 14: 11.3N 115.0E @ 65kph].
      FRIDAY MORNING: Continues to gain srength...along the coast of Southeastern Vietnam...about 20 km N of Nha Trang, Vietnam [8AM NOV 15: 12.4N 109.2E @ 85kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

      LOOSE RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Visayas and Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Nov 12, 2013
      Class/Name: TD (Zoraida)
      Location of Center: Near 8.2º N Lat 126.2º E Lon
      Distance 1: 10 km W of Bislig City
      Distance 2: 25 km SW of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
      Distance 3: 110 km SE of Butuan City
      Distance 4: 200 km SE of Camiguin Island
      Distance 5: 340 km ESE of Dumaguete City
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
      Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
      Towards: Surigao-Agusan Area
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

      T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

      __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.typhoon2000.ph%2Fadvisorytrax%2F2013%2Fzoraida06.gif&t=1516754109&sig=4WxMpPuQAY7oWBws010mnA--~D _____________________________________________________________________________


      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20131112043238.gif&t=1516754109&sig=czj0l6eU_LudimuzgenQXA--~D
      __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE
      :



      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2FPS%2FTROP%2Ffloaters%2F90W%2Fimagery%2Frb0-lalo.jpg&t=1516754109&sig=nFYY5vedKolcFVHAEZ0bJA--~D

      __________________________________________________________________________________________________


      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TD 90W (ZORAIDA)...go visit our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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