TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 010**FINAL** Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 27 November 2016
Current Status and Outlook
Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) has weakened slightly as it begins to move on a northerly direction, passing over the Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea.
This cyclone is expected to move north-northeast at a slightly slower speed of 11 km/hr through the next 24 hours, before turning sharply towards the west-southwest.It shall then exit western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow afternoon or evening (Nov 28).
*Due to this forecast trend, this will be thefinal updateon this storm. WeatherPhilippines will continue to monitor this system if ever a new threat occurs to our country.
Where is Tokage (Marce)?
As of5:00 AM PhT today, November 27...2100 GMT.The center was locatedover the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 15.4N 117.4E),about275 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 279 km west of Iba, Zambales.
How strong is it?
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg):85 kphnear the center...Gustiness:100 kph.
Where is it heading?
It was moving North @ 15 kph,towards the northern part of the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s)
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*
*Where Damaging Winds of>100 km/hr will be expected.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
MONDAY EARLY MORNING:Moves slowly north-northeastward across the northern part of the West Philippine Sea, continues to lose strength…about 236 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur[2AM NOV 28: 17.3N 118.2E @ 75kph].Confidence Level:LOW.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:Already outside of the PAR as it turns west-southwestward across the South China Sea…just an area of low pressure…about 509 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur[2AM NOV 29: 16.7N 115.7E @ 35kph].Confidence Level:LOW.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that theForecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and theDay 2 and 3 Forecast Trackhas anaverage error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info
- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center):25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
-Minimum Central Pressure:989 millibars (hPa)
- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:455 km (Small)
- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.
Time/Date:5:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 27, 2016 Location of Center/Eye:Near 15.4º N Lat 117.4º E Lon Distance 1:317 km WSW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan Distance 2:318 km WNW of Subic Bay, Zambales Distance 3:337 km SW of San Fernando City, La Union Distance 4:350 km NW of Lubang Island, Occ Mindoro Distance 5:400 km WNW of Metro Manila
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