2425Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 009
Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
Nov 26 3:52 AM
Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 009
TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 009 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 26 November 2016 Next Update: Sunday Morning,27 November 2016
Current Status and Outlook
Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) has maintained its strength as it moved slowly north-northwest across the West Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours. Its rainbands are no longer affecting the landmass of the Philippines.
This cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northwest to north at a speed of 11 km/hr through the next 24 hours. It shall pass over the Scarborough Shoal tonight.
Where is Marce?
As of5:00 PM PhT today, November 26...1100 GMT.The center was locatedover the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 14.2N 117.8E),about263 km west-northwest of Lubang Island or 277 km west-southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales.
How strong is it?
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg):95 kphnear the center...Gustiness:120 kph.
Where is it heading?
It was moving North-Northwest @ 08 kph,towards the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal and the northern part of the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s)
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*
*Where Damaging Winds of>100 km/hr will be expected.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
SUNDAY AFTERNOON:Moves slowly northward across the West Philippine Sea after passing the Scarborough Shoal Area …about 235 km west of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan[2PM NOV 27: 16.3N 117.6E @ 95kph].Confidence Level:LOW.
MONDAY AFTERNOON:Drifting very slowly northward across the West Philippine Sea as it starts to turn sharply towards the west-southwest, weakens rapidly…about 328 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur[2PM NOV 28: 16.9N 117.4E @ 75kph].Confidence Level:LOW.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens into an area of low pressure while accelerating west-southwestward across the South China Sea…about 564 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam[2PM NOV 29: 15.3N 113.4E @ 35kph].Confidence Level:LOW.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that theForecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and theDay 2 and 3 Forecast Trackhas anaverage error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info
- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center):25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
-Minimum Central Pressure:985 millibars (hPa)
- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:485 km (Small)
- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.
Time/Date:5:00 PM PhT Sat Nov 26, 2016 Location of Center/Eye:Near 14.2º N Lat 117.8º E Lon Distance 1:266 km SW of Iba, Zambales Distance 2:317 km SW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan Distance 3:344 km WNW of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro Distance 4:357 km W of Metro Manila Distance 5:357 km NW of Coron, Palawan
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