2329Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 008
Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
Jul 31, 2016
Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 008
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (CARINA) UPDATE NUMBER 008 Issued at: 1:30 PMPhT(05:30 GMT) Sunday 31 July 2016 Next Update: Sunday Evening, 31 July2016
NIDA (CARINA) has gained more strength as it moves closer to Northeastern Luzon, bringing serious threat across the area.
The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the northern tip of Cagayan this afternoon (Sunday)between 2:00 to 4:00 PM...witha Strike Probability of70-80 percent.
Itsrainbandsare currently dumping moderate to heavy rains across most parts of Luzon particularly Cagayan andIsabela.
This cyclone will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) that will bring on and off, light to moderate to at times heavy rains over the western sections of Southern Luzon andVisayasespecially along the coastal areas.
Where is NIDA (Carina)?
As of 11:00 AMPhTtoday, July 31...0300 GMT. The center was locatedover the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 17.6N 122.7E), just off the eastern coast of Southern Cagayan, about 113 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 166 km north-northeast ofCasiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it?
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-minavg):95kphnear the center...Gustiness:120kph
Where is it heading?
Northwest @ 21kph,towards Northern Cagayan
What areas will be most affected?
Northern Luzon particularly Cagayan, NorthernIsabela,BabuyanandCalayanIslands –today through early Monday (Aug 01).
Storm Surge Info
2-Day Forecast Outlook
TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to move northwestward during the next 24 hours, bending slightly to the west-northwest on the remainder of the outlook period.On the forecast track, NIDA (CARINA) shall make landfall over the northeastern tip of Cagayan this afternoon and shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (Aug01). It shall then make its second landfall along the coast ofGuandongProvince, China on Tuesday morning (Aug 02)
TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to further gain strength during the outlook period and could likely reach typhoon intensity before it steps over the South China Sea.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*
MONDAY MORNING:Becomes a Typhoon as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 224 km north-northwest ofPagudpud, Ilocos Norte[8AM AUG 01: 20.1N 119.4E @ 120kph].Confidence Level:HIGH.
TUESDAY MORNING:Maintains its strength as it bends to the west-northwest…about to make its second landfall along the central coast ofGuandongProvince, China...about 32 km east-northeast of Hong Kong[8AM AUG 02: 22.5N 114.4E @ 120kph].Confidence Level:MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY MORNING:Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it traverses Guangdong Province, China...moves further inland in a west-northwest track…about 471 km northwest of Macau, China[8AM AUG 03: 24.4N 109.6E @ 75kph].Confidence Level:LOW.
*Important Note: Please be reminded that theForecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and theDay 2 and 3 Forecast Trackhas anaverage error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hrper day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info
- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center):25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme] -Minimum Central Pressure:982millibars(hPa)
- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:805 km (Medium)
- Area of Damaging Winds (100kphor more wind gusts):45 km from the center.
Time/Date:11:00 AMPhTSun Jul 31, 2016 Location of Center:Near 17.6°NLat122.7°E Lon