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2181TD MAYSAK (CHEDENG) Update #019

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    Apr 5, 2015


      for Sunday, 05 April 2015 [8:00 PM PhT]

      WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

      TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 019
      Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Sunday 05 April 2015
      Next Update: Monday Morning, 06 April 2015


      Tropical Depression MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has weakened further after crossing the northern part of Northern Luzon...emerges over the west coast of Ilocos Norte. Its rainbands will continue to dump moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms across the area. Maysak (Chedeng) will therefore weaken into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) within the next 12 to 24 hours.

      Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).

      Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


      CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

      Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


      RAINFALL

      • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - today through Monday morning (Apr 06).
      • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Quezon incl. Polilio Is., Southern Aurora and Southern Cagayan - today through Monday morning (Apr 06).


      CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

      As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Apr 05...0900 GMT.

      Classification/Name: TD Maysak (Chedeng)
      Location: Over the West Coast of Ilocos Norte (near 18.5N 120.4E)
      About: 45 km west of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte...or 40 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
      Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
      24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 30 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
      Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
      Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
      Past Movement: Northwest @ 33 kph
      Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 16 kph
      Towards: West Philippine Sea/South China Sea


      1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

      TD MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue to move northwestward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move across the West Philippine Sea tonight and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (P.A.R.) through the northwestern border. It will be over the northwestern part of the South China Sea.

      MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will maintain its weakening trend throughout the forecast period...dissipating into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) later tonight or tomorrow. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 35 kph on Monday, April 6.

      The following is the 1-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

      MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the South China Sea, west of the northwestern border of P.A.R....dissipates into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA)...about 425 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM APR 06: 20.4N 117.8E @ 35kph].

      *Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

      Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


      ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

      Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Apr 05, 2015
      Location of Center: Near 18.5º N Lat 120.4º E Lon
      Distance 1: 100 km N of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
      Distance 2: 125 km W of Aparri, Cagayan
      Distance 3: 145 km WSW of Calayan Is., Cagayan
      Distance 4: 170 km NW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
      Distance 5: 455 km S of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

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      CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
      STORMTRACK:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20150405121728.gif&t=1516278822&sig=jRyomUaROPJQA9EJESxjmA--~D

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      CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20150405121903.GIF&t=1516278822&sig=Uf4.zs3rjmw0aUKsDXDckg--~D

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      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2FPS%2FTROP%2Ffloaters%2F04W%2Fimagery%2Frb0-lalo.gif&t=1516278822&sig=Zc495JB3rcDs6R5JnDC3SQ--~D


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      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TD MAYSAK (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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