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2164Typhoon MAYSAK Update #001

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    Mar 30, 2015


      for Tuesday, 31 March 2015 [7:19 AM PhT]

      WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

      TYPHOON MAYSAK UPDATE NUMBER 001
      Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Tuesday 31 March 2015
      Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 31 March 2015


      The powerful tropical cyclone MAYSAK which has been rapidly gaining strength while moving over the warm waters of the Western Pacific Ocean - may pose a threat to the Philippines this weekend. Now at Near-Super Typhoon strength, MAYSAK continues to move closer to the Western Micronesian Islands of Yap and Ulithi. Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday morning (April 02).

      Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak.

      Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


      CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

      Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


      None for the next 4 days.


      CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

      As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Mar 31...2100 GMT.

      Classification/Name: TY Maysak
      Location: Over Western Micronesia, Caroline Islands (near 9.5N 143.0E)
      About: 475 km south-southwest of Hagatna, Guam...or 535 km east of Colonia, Yap
      Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 215 kph near the center...Gustiness: 260 kph
      24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
      Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
      Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 655 km (Small)
      Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km from the Center
      Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
      Forecast Movement: West-Southwest @ 21 kph
      Towards: Western Micronesia


      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

      TY MAYSAK will continue to move on a generally west-northwest track throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK will pass close to the north of Yap and Ulithi Islands on Wednesday morning and shall be approaching the PAR on Thursday morning (Apr 02).

      MAYSAK will reach Super Typhoon status within the next 12 to 24 hours, before it starts its weakening trend through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing rapidly to 240 kph by early Wednesday morning.

      The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

      WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to decay over the Central Philippine Sea as it tracks due westward...about 565 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM APR 01: 10.5N 139.0E @ 240kph].
      THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Decaying further into a shallow low pressure area as it turns west-southwestward across the western part of the Philippine Sea...about 210 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM APR 02: 12.0N 135.4E @ 220kph].
      FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to decay, near the coasts of Aurora and Quezon Provinces...about 70 km east-southeast of Baler, Aurora [2AM APR 03: 13.0N 132.9E @ 195kph].

      *Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

      Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


      ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

      Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Mar 31, 2015
      Location of Eye: Near 9.5º N Lat 143.0º E Lon
      Distance 1: 875 km E of P.A.R.
      Distance 2: 965 km ENE of Koror, Palau
      Distance 3: 1875 km E of Northern Mindanao, PHL
      Distance 4: 1935 km ESE of Samar, PHL
      Distance 5: 2080 km ESE of Bicol Region, PHL

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      CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdev.weather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20150330225738.gif&t=1512962176&sig=E7ELVcq8ZvwxTD_OB75tzA--~D

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      CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdev.weather.com.ph%2Fimages%2F20150330225839.GIF&t=1512962176&sig=4Ei1ZH6OE8H.zCXPCmP1Kg--~D

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      CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      https://ec.yimg.com/ec?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2FPS%2FTROP%2Ffloaters%2F04W%2Fimagery%2Frb0-lalo.gif&t=1512962176&sig=kcfsKnUVyRZm.GHyy.8sng--~D


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      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TY MAYSAK...go visit our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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