2158TS MEKKHALA Update #017
- Jan 19 9:22 PM
for Sunday, 18 January 2015 [8:55 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 18 January 2015
Next Update: Monday Early Morning, 19 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) has weakened slightly after traversing the low mountains of Camarines Provinces...now off the northwestern coast of Camarines Norte or over Lamon Bay...expected to pass over Polillo Islands tonight.
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the northern and eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Polilio Islands, Northern Aurora, Eastern Isabela and Southeastern Cagayan - through Monday morning (Jan 19).
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Quezon, Southern Aurora, Eastern parts of Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province and Apayao, and Central and Northern parts of Cagayan - through Monday morning (Jan 19).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Camarines Norte, Northern part of Southern Quezon, Most parts of Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rest of Nueva Ecija, Easternmost part of Pangasinan, Benguet, Southeastern part Of Ilocos Sur, Eastern Abra, Kalinga, Rest areas of Cagayan, Apayao, Mt. Province, Ifugao and Nueva Vizcaya - through Monday morning (Jan 19).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): The Bicol Region incl. Burias and Ticao Islands - through Sunday evening (Jan 18)..
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Jan 18...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over Lamon Bay (near 14.5N 122.4E)
About: 70 km northwest of Daet, Camarines Norte...or 80 km east-southeast of Daet, Camarines Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 330 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 18 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-Northwest @ 08 kph
Towards: Polillo-Aurora Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move northwest to north-northwest throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be crossing the Polilio Islands tonight...and move towards the coastal areas of Aurora by Monday morning. It shall make its final landfall over or very near Baler, Aurora on Monday afternoon. Mekkhala shall be over Ifugao on Tuesday afternoon
TS Mekkhala (Amang) will continue to weaken throughout the forecast outlook as it moves over the land mass of Northern Luzon...decaying into a Tropical Depression (TD) on Monday and eventually into a dissipating or remnant Low Pressure Area over Ifugao on Tuesday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Monday afternoon.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TD as it makes landfall over Aurora...about 10 km north of Baler, Aurora [2PM JAN 19: 15.9N 121.6E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Traversing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and dies into an area of weak low pressure over Ifugao...about 80 km northeast of Baguio City, Benguet [2PM JAN 20: 16.8N 121.2E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Jan 18, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.5º N Lat 122.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km ESE of Polillo Islands
Distance 2: 90 km NNW of Ragay, CamSur
Distance 3: 120 km NE of Lucena City
Distance 4: 130 km NW of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 150 km E of Metro Manila__________________________________________________________________________________________________
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
__________________________________________________________________________________________________CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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