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Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #03

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003 Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY 2007 Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 30, 2007

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003 
      Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
      Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY 2007
      Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY
      Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
      _______________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TYPHOON USAGI (05W) REACHES CATEGORY TWO STATUS...STILL ON A
      PATH TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN...THREATENS SHIKOKU-KYUSHU AREA
      .

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI will remain on a consistent NW'ly
      track for the next 2 days in the direction of Southwestern
      Japan with forecast wind speeds of 220 km/hr (Cat 4). The
      advance 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI making
      landfall over Southwestern Shikoku-Eastern Kyushu early
      Friday morning, Aug 3. It shall then traverse Southwestern
      Honshu Friday morning, Aug 3. USAGI shall be off the Sea
      of Japan Friday evening Aug 3


      + EFFECTS: USAGI's northern-edge outer bands now affecting
      Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Intermittent rains with moderate
      to strong winds can be expected along the area. Coastal
      Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
      levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can
      be expected near and to the north of USAGI's projected path
      .

      + MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

      + TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
      Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
      are forecasting a
      formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August 4
      to 9. During the past 24-hour run of the model forecast (8 AM
      & 8 PM Jul 30), it showed the first system forming over the
      South China Sea around Aug 4 (Sat), becoming a major Typhoon
      before making landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Mean-
      while, the second system is likely to form sometime Aug 7 or 8
      (Tue or Wed) in the area off the Philippine Sea, just to the
      East of Bicol Region - then heading northwesterly in the di-
      rection of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical Storm or a Ty-
      phoon
      . The second one shows a close proximity to Luzon which
      might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and give moderate to heavy
      rainfall over the area. If this happens, it will be a big relief
      to the dry areas of Luzon particularly over Angat Dam and other
      reservoirs
      . Watch out for more updates on this forecast
      .

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
      outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
      cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

      _______________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 31 JULY
      LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.9º N...LONGITUDE 140.4º E
      DISTANCE 1: 335 KM (180 NM) SSW OF IWO TO, JAPAN
      DISTANCE 2: 1,355 KM (732 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
      DISTANCE 3: 1,925 KM (1,040 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 959 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
      VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TUE JULY 31
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
        
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
                 
      12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
      2 PM (06 GMT) 31 JULY: 23.2N 139.5E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 24.7N 137.9E / 215-260 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 28.5N 133.8E / 215-260 KPH / NNW @ 22 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 31 JULY POSITION: 21.4N 140.7E.
      ^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A
      CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND DEVELOPED
      TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DURING THAT PERIOD. TY USAGI HAS
      TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
      RIDGE. A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTED A DEVELOPING
      EYE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG IN OVER JAPAN,
      WHICH HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN, AIDING IN
      THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
      INFLUENCED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
      PAST 06 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARD A WEAK-
      NESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE..
      .(more info)

      >>
      color=#000080>USAGI
      {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
        
      Name contributed by: Japan.

      _______________________________________________________________________
      _______________________________________________________________________

      RECENT TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
            being hoisted.
      For more explanations on these signals, 
            visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
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