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Tropical Storm TRAMI - Update #002

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002 Name: TROPICAL STORM TRAMI [26W/0623] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 18 DECEMBER 2006 Next Update: 7:00 PM
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 17, 2006

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
      Name: TROPICAL STORM TRAMI [26W/0623] 
      Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 18 DECEMBER 2006
      Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 18 DECEMBER 2006
      Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
      _______________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRAMI (26W) HAS MAINTAINED ITS
      NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA...
      EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPON-
      SIBILITY (PAR) THIS AFTERNOON
      .

      ...Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) analyzed TRAMI as a
      65-km/hr Tropical Storm, with the same forecast as JTWC.
      All interests in the Luzon area should closely monitor
      the progress of TD TRAMI
      .

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: The forecast of TD TRAMI has changed
      dramatically wuth a possible threat to Extreme Northern
      Luzon. TRAMI is now expected to turn WNW to West and
      enter the PAR within the next 12 hours and shall be
      named by PAGASA as "TOMAS". The 2 to 3-day medium range
      forecast shows the system becoming a Tropical Storm as
      it moves towards the Extreme Northern Luzon. It shall
      briefly become a 120-km/hr Typhoon before returning back
      to Tropical Storm as it approaches the eastern coast of
      Cagayan by early Thursday morning (Dec 21). Two other
      scenarios are possible: The first scenario shows the
      depression dipping to a WSW track towards Bicol-Quezon
      area, while the second scenario recurves TRAMI towards
      Southern Japan after being captured by the exiting frontal
      system off Japan. Please be aware that these forecasts
      changes every 6 hours. So, kindly watch out for our
      succeeding advisories
      . 

      + EFFECTS: This system is not yet affecting any Pacific
      Islands.

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: A surge of moderate to strong
      Northeast Monsoon currently prevailing across Luzon bringing
      cloudy skies with occasional light to moderate rains and
      cooler winds of 30-60 km/hr winds becoming more frequent
      across Batanes, Northeastern Luzon, Quezon, Bicol Region
      & Northern Samar.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
      outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
      cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

      _______________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 DECEMBER
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.8º N...LONGITUDE 136.7º E
      DISTANCE 1: 1,345 KM (725 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
      DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) EAST OF PAR
      DISTANCE 3: 1,415 KM (765 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY
      DISTANCE 4: 1,460 KM (790 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY
      DISTANCE 5: 1,610 KM (870 NM) EAST OF INFANTA, QUEZON
      DISTANCE 6: 1,570 KM (848 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
      VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST MON DECEMBER 18
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
        
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
                 
      12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
      2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DEC: 16.1N 134.8E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DEC: 16.9N 131.9E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 26 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 20 DEC: 17.4N 126.4E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER POSITION: 14.3N 137.3E.
      ^A AMSR-E IMAGE AND A AMSU-B IMAGE SHOW WEAK LOW CYCLONIC
      TURNING, AND HINT AT MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
      CENTERS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS
      THIS, AND FURTHER INDICATES STRONG SHEARING OF THE DEEP
      CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION..
      .(more info)

      >> TRAMI
      {pronounced: tra~mee}, meaning: A kind of tree 
         belonging to the rose family, its flowers are pink or 
         red without perfume, is used as decorative tree. 
         
      Name contributed by: Vietnam.


      _______________________________________________________________________
      _______________________________________________________________________


      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
            being hoisted.
      For more explanations on these signals, 
            visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TD TRAMI (26W)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
      href="http://www.typhoon2000.com/">http://www.typhoon2000.com
      href="http://www.maybagyo.com">http://www.maybagyo.com

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