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New TD 26W heads for RP...[Update #001]

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED] Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 17 DECEMBER 2006 Next Update: 7:00 AM
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 17, 2006

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED] 
      Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 17 DECEMBER 2006
      Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 18 DECEMBER 2006
      Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002
      _______________________________________________________________________
       
       
      NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (UNNAMED) HEADS
      FOR PHILIPPINES...MAY THREATEN THE ISLAND OF LUZON
      WITHIN THREE DAYS...SHALL ENTER THE PHILIPPINE
      AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) TOMORROW.


      ...All interests in the Luzon and Eastern Visayas
      should closely monitor the progress of Tropical 
      Depression 26W.

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: 26W is expected to resume its fast,
      WNW track with decreasing speed as it nears PAR and
      intensify into a Storm. Since this is a small system,
      some computer forecast models are blind in forecasting
      this. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows it
      turning due west, reaching Category 1 Typhoon by Wednes-
      day Afternoon (Dec 20), sparing the Bicol Region on a
      direct hit but a danger to Central and Northern Luzon.
      Aside from the above forecast there are 2 scenarios that
      can happen. Scenario 1 shows it moving West into Bicol-
      Samar Area around Wednesday (Dec 20). Scenario 2 shall
      move this cyclone NW into the weak part of the High
      Pressure Steering Ridge and be absorbed by a passing
      Cold Front (which is now moving off Japan) next week.
      As of this time, these scenarios are still possible, how-
      ever due to its sudden Northwesterly, the Central Luzon
      landfall is most like. Please be aware that these fore-
      casts changes every 6 hours. So, kindly watch out for
      our succeeding advisories
      . 

      + EFFECTS: This system is not yet affecting any Pacific
      Islands.

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: A surge of moderate to strong
      Northeast Monsoon currently moving across Luzon bring clou-
      dy skies with occasional rainshowers and winds of 30-60
      km/hr winds becoming more frequent across Batanes, North-
      eastern Luzon, Quezon, Bicol Region & Northern Samar.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
      outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
      cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

      _______________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 DECEMBER
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.5º N...LONGITUDE 139.1º E
      DISTANCE 1: 350 KM (190 NM) NNE OF COLONIA, YAP IS., FSM
      DISTANCE 2: 445 KM (240 NM) EAST OF PAR
      DISTANCE 3: 1,575 KM (850 NM) EAST OF CATARMAN, N.SAMAR
      DISTANCE 4: 1,605 KM (865 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
      DISTANCE 5: 1,670 KM (900 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
      DISTANCE 6: 1,725 KM (930 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 37 KM/HR (20 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: LUZON, PHILIPPINES
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 250 KM (135 NM)/SMALL
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
      VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST SUN DECEMBER 17
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
        
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
                 
      12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
      2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DEC: 13.3N 136.5E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DEC: 14.1N 133.6E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 26 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 19 DEC: 15.0N 128.1E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 22 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER POSITION: 12.0N 139.7E.
      ^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
      SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER WITH
      WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
      A AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THAT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS WEA-
      KENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
      ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING
      OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
      SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO
      THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW..
      .(more info)

      _______________________________________________________________________
      _______________________________________________________________________


      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
            being hoisted.
      For more explanations on these signals, 
            visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TD 26W (UNNAMED)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
      href="http://www.typhoon2000.com/">http://www.typhoon2000.com
      href="http://www.maybagyo.com">http://www.maybagyo.com

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