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Typhoon XANGSANE (MILENYO) approaching Vietnam...[Update #005]

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005 Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 30 SEPTEMBER 2006 Next Update: 7:00 PM
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 29, 2006

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
      Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] 
      Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 30 SEPTEMBER 2006
      Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 30 SEPTEMBER 2006
      Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018

      Note: We apologize for the non-updates during the passage
      of this typhoon which disrupted
      power and communications utilities. The eye of the storm passed some 30 km south
      of my station. Luckily, our servers are located in California and Canada for non-disruption
      of website updates.
      _______________________________________________________________________
       
       
      XANGSANE (MILENYO) CONSIDERED ONE OF THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE
      EVER TO STRIKE THE PHILIPPINES SINCE SUPER TYPHOON ANGELA
      (ROSING) OF NOVEMBER 03, 1995...IS NOW DANGEROUSLY MOVING
      CLOSER TO VIETNAM.

      ...ALL INTERESTS IN VIETNAM SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
      PROGRESS OF XANGSANE.

      -----------------------------------------------------------------------
      T2K POST ANALYSIS DATA:

      The Eye passed about 30 km SSW of my T2k Weather Station (Naga City)
      around 11 PM Wed Sep 27. The station recorded highest wind gust of 106
      km/hr blowing from the North at 11:16 PM (15:16 GMT) & low barometer
      (atmospheric pressure) of 986.3 millibars from 10:45 to 10:59 PM. View
      data here:
      text & graph.The total rainfall recorded for the past 48 hrs
      was 159.6 mm.


      **Our T2K Mobile Service (SMS) resumes service after electric power has
      been restored. T2K website is being updated via
      PLDT WeROAM &
      BayanTel DSL.

      -----------------------------------------------------------------------

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: XANGSANE is forecast to continue
      tracking West to WSW across the South China Sea and make
      landfall over Central Vietnam just south of Da Nhang early
      tomorrow morning (Oct 1). After making landfall, this
      typhoon shall dissipate rapidly along the Laos-Cambodia-
      Vietnam border tomorrow afternoon. All interests in Viet-
      nam, Laos & Cambodia should closely monitor the progress
      of Xangsane


      + EFFECTS: XANGSANE's outer circulation remains large with
      its outer bands spreading across Hainan Island and Vietnam
      ...Inner bands of this typhoon expected to arrive along the
      east coast of Vietnam sometime this afternoon or tonight.
      Cloudy skies with passing rains and winds not exceeding 50
      km/hr will be expected along the affected areas situated
      within the outer bands. Meanwhile, the shipping routes over
      the South China Sea will continue to be disrupted due to the
      expanding circulation of XANGSANE. Improving weather condi-
      tions can be expected today over Western Luzon and Visayas
      as the storm moves farther away from the Philippines. Coas-
      tal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide
      levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can
      be expected near and to the north or east of where the
      center of Xangsane makes landfall in Vietnam early tomorrow
      .

      + TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/91W/
      1004 mb) over the Caroline Islands has remained disorganized
      over the past 6 hours, however its circulation continue to
      expand. It was located about 1,590 km ESE of Catarman, Nor-
      thern Samar (11.8N 139.2E)...moving WSW @ 7 km/hr during
      the past 12 hours. This system will be closely monitored
      for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within
      a day or two. Kindly check out the latest Western Pacific satellite image
      by clicking this
      link
      .

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
      outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
      cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

      _______________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER
      LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.5º N...LONGITUDE 112.6º E
      DISTANCE 1: 475 KM (257 NM) ESE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
      DISTANCE 2: 545 KM (295 NM) ESE OF HUE, VIETNAM
      DISTANCE 3: 910 KM (490 NM) WNW OF METRO MANILA
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 927 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: VIETNAM-LAOS
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 25 FEET (7.6 METERS)
      VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT SAT SEPTEMBER 30
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD
        
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NOW LOWERED.
                 
      12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
      2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEP: 15.5N 110.9E / 215-260 KPH / WEST @ 19 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCT: 15.3N 109.1E / 165-205 KPH / WEST @ 17 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCT: 14.9N 107.7E / 95-120 KPH / WSW @ 13 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.5N 113.2E.
      ^TY XANGSANE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
      OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA...
      (more info)

      >> XANGSANE {pronounced: xang~sa}, meaning: Elephant. 
         
      Name contributed by: Laos

      _______________________________________________________________________
      _______________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
            being hoisted.
      For more explanations on these signals, 
            visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TY XANGSANE (MILENYO)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
      href="http://www.typhoon2000.com/">http://www.typhoon2000.com
      href="http://www.maybagyo.com">http://www.maybagyo.com

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