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Typhoon XANGSANE (MILENYO) now over Sorsogon...[Update #004]

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004 Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006 Next Update: 7:00 AM
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 27, 2006

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
      Name: TYPHOON XANGSANE [MILENYO/18W/0615] 
      Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 27 SEPTEMBER 2006
      Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 28 SEPTEMBER 2006
      Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
      _______________________________________________________________________
       
       
      XANGSANE (MILENYO) RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY
      4 TYPHOON WITH WINDS OF 215 KM/HR
      ...NOW OVER EASTERN
      SORSOGON.


      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: XANGSANE is expected to continue to
      track WNW for the next 2 to 3 days and weaken slightly
      - due to interaction of Luzon's land mass. The Eye and
      its core is forecast to make landfall over Legazpi
      City and pass over head Mayon Volcano around 8 PM
      tonight, continuing moving across Polangui, Albay and
      shall be over Iriga City-Baao Area around 12 Midnight
      (Thu Sep 28). XANGSANE shall be in the vicinity of
      Pili, Camarines Sur or about 10 km. South of Naga City
      around 2 or 3 AM tomorrow (Thu) and shall cross the
      Ragay Hills passing over Quirino Highway around 6 AM
      tomorrow. This typhoon shall move across Southern
      Quezon tomorrow afternoon before heading towards
      Laguna-Metro Manila Area. The 30 to 48-hour (Sep 28 to
      30) Medium-Range Forecast shows XANGSANE passing over
      Metro Manila tomorrow evening around 7 PM before exiting
      the South China Sea via Subic Bay early Friday morning.
      XANGSANE shall maintain Typhoon status over the South
      China Sea as it heads for Vietnam area by Sunday or
      Monday (Oct 1 or 2). All interests in the Bicol, Quezon
      and Southern Tagalog Provinces should closely monitor
      the progress of this dangerous Typhoon


      + EFFECTS: XANGSANE's Eyewall is now affecting Rapu-Rapu
      & Bacacay Islands, Sorsogon, and the whole of Albay.
      While, its inner bands continues to spread across Bicol
      Region, Northern and Western Samar, Ticao & Burias Islands
      & Masbate. Outer Bands continues to affect Metro Manila,
      Southern Tagalog Provinces & the whole of Visayas including
      Boracay Beach Resort and is now spreading across Central
      Luzon. Cloudy with moderate to heavy rains and winds not in
      excess of 55 km/hr can be expected today along its outer
      bands...while increasing wind speeds along its inner bands.
      Meanwhile, extreme typhoon conditions can be expected tonight
      and tomorrow along Bicol Region and Southern Quezon as XANG-
      SANE's core (eye + eyewall) passes by. Coastal Storm Surge
      flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along
      with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
      near and to the north or east of where the center of Xang-
      sane makes landfall in Bicol Region particularly the
      provinces of Albay & Sorsogon tonight
      .

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
      outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
      cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

      _______________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER
      LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 13.1º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º E
      DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30 NM) EAST OF LEGAZPI CITY, ALBAY
      DISTANCE 2: 55 KM (30 NM) SOUTH OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
      DISTANCE 3: 120 KM (65 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, CAM SUR
      DISTANCE 4: 180 KM (98 NM) SE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 927 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: ALBAY-CAMARINES SUR
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVERAGE/LARGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 30 FEET (9.1 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM HKT WED SEPTEMBER 27
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
        

      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
      #03 - SORSOGON, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES PROVINCES, SOU-
            THERN QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, MARINDUQUE, MASBATE

            ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, SAMAR PROVINCES, TICAO ISLAND
      #02 - ROMBLON, REST OF QUEZON, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, 
            ORIENTAL MINDORO
      , NORTHERN LEYTE & BILIRAN ISLAND

      #01 - OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, CAVITE, BULACAN, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, 
            NUEVA ECIJA, AURORA, METRO MANILA
      , SOUTHERN LEYTE, 
            CAMOTES ISLAND, NORTHERN CEBU, NORTHERN ILOILO, 
            NORTHERN ANTIQUE, AKLAN, CAPIZ, DINAGAT & SIARGAO 
            ISLANDS
      .

                 
      12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
      2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEP: 13.5N 123.2E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEP: 14.2N 121.7E / 165-205 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEP: 14.9N 120.0E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.9N 124.6E.
      ^STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA HAS STEERED
      TY XANGSANE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY
      XANGSANE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
      AS THE STEERING RIDGE MAINTAINS THIS ORIENTATION THROUGH 36
      HOURS. THEREAFTER, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE
      TO REORIENT ON A MORE EAST-WEST AXIS, AND AS A RESULT, TY 
      XANGSANE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
      PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF TY XANGSANE
      IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS IT PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINE
      ISLANDS, IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE
      SOUTH CHINA SEA...
      (more info)

      >> XANGSANE {pronounced: xang~sa}, meaning: Elephant. 
         
      Name contributed by: Laos

      _______________________________________________________________________

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
      > 4 AM (08 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 13.0N 124.3E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 130 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
         at:
      http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
      _______________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
            being hoisted.
      For more explanations on these signals, 
            visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TY XANGSANE (MILENYO)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
      href="http://www.typhoon2000.com/">http://www.typhoon2000.com
      href="http://www.maybagyo.com">http://www.maybagyo.com

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