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Typhoon SANVU [03W] - Update #015

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    *for Sunday, 27 May 2012 [7:53 AM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
    Message 1 of 1 , May 26, 2012

      for Sunday, 27 May 2012 [7:53 AM PhT]

      click to get RSS data


      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 22 2012):

      Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on SANVU (03W).

      SANVU MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TROPICAL STORM SANVU [03W/1202]
      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015

      5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 27 May 2012
      Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #023/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
      SANVU (03W) downgraded to a Tropical Storm...heading northeast across the open sea.

      Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of SANVU (03W).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun May 27 2012
      Location of Center: 26.7º N Lat 144.7º E Lon
      Distance 1: 270 km ESE of Chichi Jima
      Distance 2: 368 km East of Bonin Island
      Distance 3: 401 km ENE of Iwo To
      Distance 4: 895 km NNW of Agrihan, CNMI
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
      Present Movement: NE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
      Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
      NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 105 mm (Medium)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
      Size (in Diameter): 560 km (300 nm) [Avg]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sun May 27


      1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      SANVU is expected to continue moving NE for the next 24 hours across the open sea.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. SANVU is expected to continue losing strength and will become an Extratropical Cyclone on Monday.

      Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. SANVU is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 560 kilometers (300 nautical miles).

      The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

      MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Becoming Extratropical as it continues to lose strength [2AM MAY 28: 30.4N 149.6E @ 75kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...no longer affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 26 to 105 mm (medium) along areas near the center of SANVU (03W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TS SANVU (03W)

      View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 day Ahead
      JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
      NASA TRMM Page: SANVU's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


      _________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TS SANVU (03W)...go visit our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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