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TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #011

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    * for Sunday, 01 April 2012 [6:30 PM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 1, 2012


      for Sunday, 01 April 2012 [6:30 PM PhT]

      click to get RSS data


      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

      PAKHAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (FWC-N/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr

      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR [02W/1201]
      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011

      5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 01 Apr 2012
      Source: T2K Analysis/Fleet Weather Center-Norfolk TC Warning #014/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      Tropical Storm PAKHAR (02W) has accelerated WNW over the past 6 hours...now making landfall over Southern Vietnam, along Vung Tau and Ba Ria Area. Strong winds and heavy rains pounding the area including Ho Chi Minh City.

      Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Between Vung Tau-Ba Ria (Now).

      Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam & Cambodia should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun April 01 2012
      Location of Center: 10.6º N Lat 107.3º E Lon
      Distance 1: 69 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
      Distance 2: 273 km SW of Nha Trang, Vietnam
      Distance 3: 284 km ESE of Phnom Penh, Cambodia
      MaxWinds (10-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
      Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
      Towards: Southern Vietnam-Cambodia
      NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
      TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
      Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) [Small-Avg]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Apr 01


      1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      PAKHAR (02W) is expected to maintain its WNW motion across Southern Vietnam & Cambodia for the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will pass very close to Ho Chi Minh City in the next few hours. This system will be just along the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border on Monday afternoon.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to lose strength & dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours.

      The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

      MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Crossing the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border...just a weak Tropical Depression as it dissipates [2PM APR 02: 11.7N 105.6E @ 45kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across portions of Southern Vietnam particularly Ho Chi Minh City, Bien Hoa, Long Khanh District, Vung Tau, Ba Ria, My Tho and nearby areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands today.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across rest of Southeastern & Southern Vietnam...and Southeastern Cambodia. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands today (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
      COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Vietnam today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the rest of Vietnam.
      (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

      View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 day Ahead
      JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
      NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


      _____________________________________________________________________________

      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TS PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:

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      http://www.maybagyo.com

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