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TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #010

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    * for Sunday, 01 April 2012 [12:40 PM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 31, 2012


      for Sunday, 01 April 2012 [12:40 PM PhT]

      click to get RSS data


      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

      PAKHAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (FWC-N/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR [02W/1201]
      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010

      11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 01 Apr 2012
      Source: T2K Analysis/Fleet Weather Center-Norfolk TC Warning #013/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      Tropical Storm PAKHAR (02W) nearing land as it approaches the coast of Southern Vietnam...Rainbands continues to spread across Southern Vietnam including Ho Chi Minh City .

      Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Vung Tau (between 7-8pm HK Time tonight).

      Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam & Cambodia should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun April 01 2012
      Location of Center: 9.9º N Lat 108.1º E Lon
      Distance 1: 183 km SE of Ho Chi Minh City
      Distance 2: 282 km SSW of Nha Trang, Vietnam
      Distance 3: 397 km SE of Phnom Penh, Cambodia
      MaxWinds (10-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
      Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
      Towards: Southern Vietnam
      NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
      TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
      Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sun Apr 01


      1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      PAKHAR (02W) is expected to maintain its slow WNW motion over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (near Vung Tau) early this evening, and will pass very close to Ho Chi Minh City early Monday morning (approx. 3AM HK Time). This system will be just along the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border on Monday before 12 high noon.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to lose strength during the next 12 to 24 hours and dissipate.

      Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles) from the center. PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

      The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

      MONDAY MORNING:  Approaching the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border...just a Tropical Depression as it moves across Southern Vietnam [8AM APR 02: 11.3N 106.2E @ 45kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam...and over the SE portions of Cambodia. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 320 mm (high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
      COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Vietnam today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam.
      (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

      View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 day Ahead
      JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
      NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


      _____________________________________________________________________________

      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TS PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:

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      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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