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TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #007

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    * for Saturday, 31 March 2012 [12:57 PM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 30, 2012


      for Saturday, 31 March 2012 [12:57 PM PhT]

      click to get RSS data


      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

      PAKHAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR [02W/1201]
      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007

      11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 31 Mar 2012
      Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      PAKHAR (02W) losing strength...downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Fragmented outer rainbands continues to affect the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam.

      Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Ho Chi Minh City (Sunday Evening, approx. 7-8pm HK Time).

      Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat March 31 2012
      Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 109.9º E Lon
      Distance 1: 299 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
      Distance 2: 375 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
      Distance 3: 509 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
      Present Movement: West @ 04 kph (02 kts)
      Towards: Southern Vietnam
      NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
      TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
      Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Mar 31


      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      PAKHAR (02W) is expected to continue moving slowly West to WNW over the next 1 to 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (passing over or very close to Ho Chi Minh City) on Sunday evening, April 1 (approx 7-8PM HK Time). It will traverse the land mass of Southern Vietnam through Monday morning and dissipate along the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to maintain its strength during the next 12 hours & weaken.

      Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

      The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

      SUNDAY MORNING:  Slowly weakens as it approaches the coast of Southern Vietnam [8AM APR 01: 10.0N 108.1E @ 100kph].
      MONDAY MORNING:  Loses Tropical Cyclone status...just an area of low pressure while moving across the land mass of Southern Vietnam (crossing the VIetnamese-Cambodian Border) [8AM APR 02: 11.3N 105.8E @ 35kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
      INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
      COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & SE Vietnam beginning Saturday until its projected landfall on Sunday. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam.
      (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

      View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 days Ahead
      JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
      NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


      _____________________________________________________________________________

      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TS PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:

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      http://www.maybagyo.com

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