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Typhoon PAKHAR [02W] - Update #006

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    * for Saturday, 31 March 2012 [7:31 AM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 30, 2012


      for Saturday, 31 March 2012 [7:31 AM PhT]

      click to get RSS data


      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

      PAKHAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TYPHOON PAKHAR [02W/1201]
      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006

      5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 31 Mar 2012
      Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      Typhoon PAKHAR (02W) somewhat not looking healthy as it crawls westward toward Southern Vietnam.

      Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Ho Chi Minh City (Sunday Afternoon).

      Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat March 31 2012
      Location of Eye: 9.7º N Lat 110.1º E Lon
      Distance 1: 295 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
      Distance 2: 392 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
      Distance 3: 485 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
      Distance 4: 537 km West of P.A.R.
      Distance 5: 942 km West of Puerto Princesa
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
      Present Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
      Towards: Southern Vietnam
      NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
      TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
      Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Mar 31


      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      PAKHAR (02W) is expected to continue moving slowly West to WNW over the next 1 to 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (near Ho Chi Minh City) on Sunday afternoon, April 1st (approx 1-3PM HK Time)...and will traverse the land mass of Southern Vietnam Sunday evening. It will be approaching the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border on Monday early morning (April 2).

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to start losing strength during the next 24 to 36 hours as the system nears land.

      Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

      The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

      SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Downgraded to Tropical Storm as it approaches the coast of Southern Vietnam [2AM APR 01: 10.0N 108.5E @ 110kph].
      MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Loses Tropical Cyclone status...just an area of low pressure while moving across the land mass of Southern Vietnam (near the VIetnamese-Cambodian Border) [2AM APR 02: 11.4N 106.3E @ 35kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      DEVELOPING EYE - over water (South China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
      DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
      INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Strong Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam & some portion of Spratly Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
      COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & SE Vietnam beginning Saturday until its projected landfall on Sunday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam.
      (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

      View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 days Ahead
      JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
      NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


      _____________________________________________________________________________

      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TY PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:

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      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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