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TS WASHI [SENDONG] - Update #018

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    * for Monday, 19 December 2011 [12:15 PM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 18, 2011


      for Monday, 19 December 2011 [12:15 PM PhT]

      click to get RSS data


      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Dec 17 2011):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on WASHI (SENDONG).


      WASHI (SENDONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TROPICAL STORM WASHI [SENDONG/27W/1121]
      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018

      11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 19 Dec 2011
      Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #024/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      Tropical Storm WASHI (SENDONG) continues to lose strength while moving West to WSW across the South China Sea.

      Meanwhile, WASHI continues to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) across Northern Luzon. Windy conditions, cooler temperatures, & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected. Rough seas along the coastal areas facing the Philippine Sea will prevail.

      Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of WASHI (SENDONG).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon December 19 2011
      Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 112.6º E Lon
      Distance 1: 250 km SW of Pagasa Island
      Distance 2: 470 km SE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
      Distance 3: 669 km West of Puerto Princesa
      Distance 4: 659 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
      Present Movement: WSW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
      Towards: South China Sea
      NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
      TRMM Rainrate (near center): 30-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
      Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Dec 19


      36-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      WASHI (SENDONG) is expected to move SW-ward over the next 12 to 24 hours and dissipate over the South China Sea by 36 hours.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. WASHI (SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. .

      Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. WASHI (SENDONG) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

      The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:

      TUESDAY MORNING:  Continues to weaken as it moves SW across the open waters of the South China Sea, south of Vietnam...just a Tropical Depression (TD) [8AM DEC 20: 6.1N 108.3E @ 45kph].
      TUESDAY EVENING:  Dissipated over water (South China Sea)...just an area of low pressure [8PM DEC 20: 4.2N 106.4E @ 35kph].


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
      INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Strong Winds (45-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (<44 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of WASHI (SENDONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
      COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Vietnam. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Palawan.
      (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


      External Links for TS WASHI (SENDONG)

      PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
      View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2711.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hours Ahead
      JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
      NASA TRMM Page: WASHI's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr) new!
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TS WASHI (SENDONG)...go visit our website @:

      >
      http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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