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TS NESAT [PEDRING] - Update #024

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    * for Friday, 30 September 2011 [4:30 PM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 30, 2011


      for Friday, 30 September 2011 [4:30 PM PhT]

      click to get RSS data


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      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).


      NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr

      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TROPICAL STORM NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024

      2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Fri 30 September 2011
      Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #028/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      Tropical Storm NESAT (PEDRING) making landfall over Northern Vietnam...likely to dissipate over land within 24 hours.

      Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam & Laos should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Fri September 30 2011
      Location of Center: 21.0º N Lat 106.6º E Lon
      Distance 1: 83 km East of Hanoi, Vietnam
      Distance 2: 307 km WNW of Hainan Island
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
      Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
      Towards: Northern Vietnam
      24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (VHigh)
      Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Moderate)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
      Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Large]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM HKT Fri Sep 30


      24-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally westward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will pass over/near Hanoi City tonight...dissipating completely into a remnant Low on Saturday afternoon.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NESAT will weaken to a Tropical Depression Saturday & dissipate due to the topographical effects of Northern Vietnam.

      The following is the summary of the 24-hour forecast outlook on this system:

      SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Continues to traverse Northern Vietnam...decaying over land [2AM OCT 01: 21.1N 105.2E @ 85kph].
      SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipated along the western portion of Northern Vietnam...just remnant low pressure [2PM OCT 01: 21.2N 103.6E @ 35kph].

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      NESAT's (PEDRING) decaying circulation bringing stormy weather across Northern Vietnam. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over the coastal area of Northern Vietnam...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
      INNER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting the other portions of Northern Vietnam, Laos, & the coastal areas of SW Guangdong & the Gulf of Tonkin. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Hainan Island & Central Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 151 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
      COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southwestern Guangdong & Northern Vietnam. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Vietnam, Southern China & Western Luzon.
      (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


      External Links for TS NESAT (PEDRING)

      View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
      JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      NOTE:

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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