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Typhoon TALAS [15W] - Update #018

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
    for Wednesday, 31 August 2011 [1:30 PM PhT] ... Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts! For more details: Text T2K HELP to 2800
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 30, 2011


      for Wednesday, 31 August 2011 [1:30 PM PhT]

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      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).


      TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]

      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018

      11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wed 31 August 2011
      Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      Typhoon TALAS (15W) tracking WNW across the open sea of the Western Pacific...not yet a threat to any land areas.

      Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed August 31 2011
      Location of Center: 26.6º N Lat 137.6º E Lon
      Distance 1: 338 km West of Bonin Island
      Distance 2: 439 km West of Chichi Jima
      Distance 3: 421 km WNW of Iwo To
      Distance 4: 974 km East of Okinawa, Japan
      Distance 5: 1,031 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
      MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
      Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
      Towards: Southern Japan
      24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 400 mm (High)
      Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
      Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]

      RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM JST Wed Aug 31

      2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

      TALAS (15W) is expected to turn more NW-ward during the next 24 hours with a gradual to the North through 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

      THURSDAY MORNING:  Intensifying while maintaining its NW'ly motion...about 942 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan [11AM SEP 01: 27.7N 136.4E @ 130kph].
      FRIDAY MORNING:  Turns North with no change in strength...threatens Japan...about 417 km SSE of Tanabe, Japan [8AM SEP 02: 30.0N 136.1E @ 130kph].

      Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).

      *Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      TALAS' (15W) radial circulation continues to improved except for the NW periphery with the eyewall wrapping closer to the large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
      DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
      INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
      OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


      JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

      REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 31 AUGUST POSITION: 26.6N 137.9E.
      *TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH-
      SOUTHEAST OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
      KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
      IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
      (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
      EASTERN HALVES OF THE SYSTEM. A 30/2239Z TRMM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THESE
      BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
      INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE
      IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
      PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
      A 31/0141Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY DEPICTS THE EXPANSIVE WIND RADII. TS
      15W IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED
      CENTRAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ANIMATED WATER
      VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS  OUTFLOW HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED TO THE WEST OF
      TS 15W, AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING CONVECTION IN THE
      NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
      THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
      NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
      OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...(
      more info)

      >> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; AcutenessName contributed by: Philippines.
      _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART
      :

       
      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

      RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
      RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  



      > Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
      :  




      > Image source:
        NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
       
      NOTE:
       
        * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:

      >
      color=#800080>http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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