Typhoon MUIFA [KABAYAN] - Update #010
for Sunday, 31 July 2011 [6:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 31 July 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #024/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) loses its Super Typhoon status...but remains a powerful Category 4 Typhoon...moving slowly north-northeastward across the North Philippine Sea. This howler together with the strong Low Pressure Area (97W) west of Pangasinan will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat in Tagalog), bringing occasional to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms across Western Visayas, Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro & Northern Palawan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Cloud-Filled Eye: 17.6º N Lat 133.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,065 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,160 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,190 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,220 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,335 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 1,220 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,135 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 8: 1,455 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph (120 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph (145 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 46 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sun July 31
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to maintain strength at near-super typhoon status. The JTWC forecast of continued intensification earlier will no longer push through. This howler will continue moving NNE to Northerly for the next 24 hours, before turning more to the NNW - due to the rebuilding of the High Pressure Ridge along the coast of Eastern China. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Maintaining its strength as it tracks NNE to North...about 1,205 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2AM AUG 01: 18.1N 133.1E @ 230kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Continuing moving North across the North Philippine Sea...still maintaining its strength...about 1,225 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2PM AUG 01: 19.3N 133.2E @ 230kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it turns to the NNW...about 1,145 km East of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 02: 20.5N 133.0E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Turning more to the left (NW) in the direction of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 1,105 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM AUG 02: 21.8N 132.4E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 230 km/hr (125 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens but still a Category 4 typhoon...turns more to the NW...moving closer to Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands [2PM AUG 03: 23.9N 130.6E @ 215kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens into a Category 3 typhoon...maintains its NW to WNW motion...approaching Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [2PM AUG 04: 25.3N 128.9E @ 205kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to weaken as its core (eye & eyewall) passes very close to the South of Kadena Air Base (Okinawa) [2PM AUG 05: 26.7N 127.0E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation has weakened just below Super Typhoon threshold, but remains an impressive system with strong convective spiral bands on all sides except along the North and NW quadrants. The typhoon's core continues to show a 10-km. pinhole eye surrounded by a very intense eyewall. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
PINHOLE EYE (10-KM DIAMETER) - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the OUTER & INNER RAINBANDS...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) to the SW of MUIFA's (KABAYAN's) center. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
The Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) over the West Philippine Sea nearing TD status as it remains almost stationary off the coast of Western Pangasinan. The center was located near lat 16.5N lon 119.0E...about 90 km WNW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...quasi-stationary. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 60% [High]. View the latest satellite imageries on this cyclone.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 31 JULY POSITION: 17.1N 132.9E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 5NM PIN HOLE EYE WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS EROSION OF THE EYEWALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TY 11W. ADDITIONALLY, A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CURRENTLY PROVIDING AN OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN
FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 130 KNOTS. TY
11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THIS WEAKNESS
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY TAU 48, A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN, ALLOWING TY 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BALANCED BY THE PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWARD BECAUSE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP OFF AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE
CUT OFF AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN. THIS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT ARE TIGHTLY PACKED INCLUDING
NOGAPS, JGSM, ECMWF, AND WBAR. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS
WHILE EGRR IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
>Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)NOTE:* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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