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TS MEARI [FALCON] - Update #022

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    for Monday, 27 June 2011 [7:35 AM PhT] ... Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on LPA 90W! For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 26, 2011


      for Monday, 27 June 2011 [7:35 AM PhT]

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      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 25 2011):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).


      MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


      TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]

      T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022

      5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 27 June 2011
      Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #021/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
      MEARI (FALCON) losing organization as it moved northeastward towards North Korea...just a Tropical Depression. Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 90W remains a weak & disorganized system over the South China Sea (aka. West Philippine Sea), west of Ilocos Norte (see TC WATCH below for more details). This LPA will continue to bring occasional monsoon rains across the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon.

      Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon June 27 2011
      Location of Center: 38.1º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
      Distance 1: 185 km (100 nm) WSW of Pyongyang, N.Korea
      Distance 2: 285 km (155 nm) WNW of Seoul, S.Korea
      Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) ENE of Qingdao, China
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (35 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (45 kts)
      Present Movement: NE @ 17 kph (09 kts)
      Towards: North Korea
      24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 25 mm (Low)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
      Size (in Diameter): 1,035 km (560 nm) / Very Large
      Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]

      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Mon June 27

      FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 1 day)*

      MEARI (FALCON) is expected to continue moving NE-ward across the Yellow Sea and dissipate upon making landfall over North Korea sometime this afternoon. Below is the summary of the 1-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON).

      THIS AFTERNOON (MON):  Just off the coast of North Korea, weakening...about 80 km NW of Pyongyang, North Korea [2PM JUN 27: 39.5N 125.1E @ 45kph].
      TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE):  Dissipated along the rugged terrain of the Chinese-North Korean Border...about 290 km NE of Pyongyang, North Korea [2AM JUN 28: 41.4N 127.1E @ 35kph].

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further decaying of this system is expected today. MEARI remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,035 kilometers (560 nautical miles) across.

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to dominate the Yellow, East China & Japan Seas and the Korean Peninsula including Northern China. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      WEAKENING RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting Shandong & Liaoning Provinces, North & South Korea, East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 10 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 25 mm (low) near the center of MEARI (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

      TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

      Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1010 MB) remains weak & disorganized while over to the west of Ilocos Norte (off the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea). Its possible center was located near lat 18.4N lon 119.3E...about 140 km NW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system has decreased to @ 30% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.

      CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy with occasional rains will continue to prevail along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


      JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

      REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 27 JUNE POSITION: 37.7N 123.5E.
      *TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST
      OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
      THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN
      EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS LOSING ORGANIZATION AND
      PRODUCING VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TAKING ON THE
      APPEARANCE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER A 26/13Z AMSU CROSS
      SECTION INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A 4 DEGREE CELSIUS WARM
      ANOMALY ALOFT AND NO COLD ANOMALY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, FEATURES THAT
      INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY TROPICAL. THE SYSTEM IS
      CURRENTLY ACCELERATING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
      SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN; IT IS MOVING
      INTO THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN AS A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
      AHEAD OF IT MOVES OUT. POSITION IS BASED ON THE FIX FROM PGTW AND
      RADAR FROM SOUTH KOREA. INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 261304Z
      ASCAT PASS...(
      more info)

      >> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echoName contributed by: DPR Korea.

      _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
      :

       
      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

      RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

      RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  



      > Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
      :  




      > Image source:
      face=Arial>  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
       
      NOTE:
       
        * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:

      >
      color=#800080>http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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