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TD 18W [UNNAMED] - Update #004

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    for Sunday, 14 November 2010 [12:08 PM PhT] ... Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts! For more details: Text T2K HELP to 2800
    Message 1 of 2 , Nov 13, 2010


      for Sunday, 14 November 2010 [12:08 PM PhT]

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      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Nov 13 2010):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 18W.


      18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
      + Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

      TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
      T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004

      12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 14 November 2010
      Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
      Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) has made landfall over Central Vietnam...in the vicinity of Southern Quang Ngai a few hours ago. Widespread rains will continue to lash the area as it dissipates over land.

      Residents and visitors along Central Vietnam and Southern Laos should closely monitor the progress of 18W.

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Nov 13 2010
      Location of Center: 14.8º N Lat 108.3º E Lon
      Distance 1: Over Kon Tum Province (Vietnam)
      Distance 2: 145 km (78 nm) South of Da Nang, Vietnam
      Distance 3: 1375 km (742 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
      Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
      Towards: Southern Laos
      12-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
      Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]

      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 14

      FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

      18W is expected dissipate along Central Vietnam & Southern Laos within the next 12 to 24 hours.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      18W remains a tropical depression with convective rain clouds surrounding the circulation. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      HEAVY SPIRAL RAINBANDS - its western rainbands continues to affect Central Vietnam...from the province of Quang-Tri down to Khanh Hoa...extending across Southern Laos. Where light, moderate to strong winds (<45 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      12-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 18W, particularly along Bin Dinh, Quang Ngai & Kon Tum Provinces [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

      CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing rains, squalls (aka. "subasko") & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN QUEZON, BICOL REGION, EASTERN VISAYAS & EASTERN MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate East, SE or NE winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected today. The presence of strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TD 18W (UNNAMED)


      View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1810.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
      NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
      EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop 
             


      JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

      REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 14 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.8N 109.0E.
      *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SSE OF
      DA NANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
      SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THE CONVECTION
      ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND FURTHER DISORGANIZED.
      HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS SOLID. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF
      INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF
      THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS JUST
      MADE LANDFALL OVER THE VIETNAM COAST, IS SUPPORTED BY A 132235Z
      SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OF 25
      KNOTS BASED ON 132330Z PGTW DVORAK FIX. TD 18W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
      WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
      LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH..
      .(more)
      _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
      :


      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

      RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
      :

      **N/A**
      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


      > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
       



      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
       
      NOTE:
       
        * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

      >
      color=#800080>http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

      :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
         
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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    • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
      * for Monday, 12 September 2011 [6:20 PM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
      Message 2 of 2 , Sep 12, 2011


        for Monday, 12 September 2011 [6:20 PM PhT]

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        For more details: Text T2K HELP to

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        Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 12 2011):

        Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 18W (UNNAMED).


        18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

        + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
        + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
        + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
        + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
        + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
        + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

        + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr


        TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
        T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004

        6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 12 September 2011
        Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
        View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
        Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) continues to creep westward closer to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...will be locally named as ONYOK once it enters PAR late tonight or early tomorrow.

        Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 18W (Unnamed).

        Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


        CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

        Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon September 12 2011
        Location of Center: 21.3º N Lat 135.5º E Lon
        Distance 1: 52 km East of P. A. R.
        Distance 2: 973 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
        Distance 3: 1,405 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
        MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
        Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
        Present Movement: West @ 04 kph (02 kts)
        Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
        24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
        Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
        Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
        Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
        Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
        Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
        Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
        Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Sep 12


        3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

        18W (UNNAMED) is expected to move west-northwestward & slightly accelerate during the next 48 hours...with a turn towards the northwest thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be approaching the southern shores of Okinawa by late Thursday.

        Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours...and the depression could become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday.

        The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

        TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Strengthens to a Tropical Storm as it moves WNW-ward across the North Philippine Sea...about 706 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 13: 21.9N 132.6 @ 65kph].
        WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Continues to intensify as it begins to turn NW'ly in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan...about 424 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 14: 23.2N 129.9E @ 85kph].
        THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Approaching typhoon strength as it moves out of PAR...approaching the southern shores of Okinawa Island...about 159 km South of Okinawa City [2PM SEP 15: 25.1N 128.1E @ 100kph].

        *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


        EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

        18W's (Unnamed) circulation remains very large and is having a hard time consolidating with most of its rainbands restricted along the eastern periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

        DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
        24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of 18W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


        CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG

        >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to
        widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue across the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL & THE VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate Southerly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

        Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



        RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

         
        _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

        RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

        **NOT YET AVAILABLE**
        _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

        RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


        > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
        ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION 


        > Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
        ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
        :  



        > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
        ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
         
        NOTE:

        >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

           
        http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
           
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
            
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