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TD 18W [UNNAMED] - Update #003

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    for Sunday, 14 November 2010 [7:39 AM PhT] ... Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts! For more details: Text T2K HELP to 2800
    Message 1 of 2 , Nov 13, 2010


      for Sunday, 14 November 2010 [7:39 AM PhT]

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      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Nov 13 2010):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 18W.


      18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
      + Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

      TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
      T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003

      6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 14 November 2010
      Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
      Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) prepares to make landfall along the Vietnamese provinces of Bin Dinh & Quang Ngai. Torrential rains affecting Central Vietnam.

      Residents and visitors along Central Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of 18W.

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 13 2010
      Location of Center: 14.6º N Lat 109.5º E Lon
      Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) East of Bin Dinh, Vietnam
      Distance 2: 215 km (115 nm) SSE of Da Nang, Vietnam
      Distance 3: 1250 km (675 nm) West of Metro Manila
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
      Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
      Towards: Central Vietnam
      12-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
      Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]

      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 14

      FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

      18W is expected dissipate along Central Vietnam within the next 24 hours.

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      18W remains a tropical depression with convective rain clouds surrounding the circulation. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

      HEAVY SPIRAL RAINBANDS - its western rainbands affecting Central Vietnam...from the province of Quang-Tri down to Khanh Hoa. Where light, moderate to strong winds (<45 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
      12-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 18W, particularly along Bin Dinh & Quang Ngai Provinces [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

      CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN QUEZON, BICOL REGION, EASTERN VISAYAS & EASTERN MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate East or SE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today. The presence of strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TD 18W (UNNAMED)


      View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1810.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
      NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
      EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop 
            


      JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

      REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 14 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.4N 109.7E.
      *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTHEAST
      OF DA_NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
      THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
      HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED BUT HAS FLARED IN THE LAST
      TWO HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF STRONG POLEWARD
      OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
      EXTRAPOLATION. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED A WEAK INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS,
      BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. TD 18W IS
      ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)OF 25-30KTS AS THE
      LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CHINA MOVES EASTWARD. THE COMPETING
      INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS ARE
      EXPECTED TO OFFSET EACH OTHER IN THE SHOT TERM, KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT
      ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
      RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE 24
      HOUR FORECAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND AND
      DISSIPATE..
      .(more)
      _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
      :


      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

      RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
      :

      **N/A**
      _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


      > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
       



      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
       
      NOTE:
       
        * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

      >
      color=#800080>http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

      :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
         
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


      Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved
    • Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)
      ** * for Monday, 12 September 2011 [12:25 PM PhT]* [image: click to get RSS data]
      Message 2 of 2 , Sep 11, 2011


        for Monday, 12 September 2011 [12:25 PM PhT]

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        Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
        For more details: Text T2K HELP to

        2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
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        Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Sep 11 2011):

        Now initiating 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 18W (UNNAMED).


        18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

        + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
        + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
        + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
        + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
        + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
        + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

        + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr


        TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
        T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003

        12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 12 September 2011
        Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
        View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
        Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) moving very slowly WNW-ward as it slightly gained strength...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later today.

        Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 18W (Unnamed).

        Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


        CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

        Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon September 12 2011
        Location of Center: 21.3º N Lat 135.7º E Lon
        Distance 1: 73 km East of P. A. R.
        Distance 2: 989 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
        Distance 3: 1,425 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
        MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
        Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
        Present Movement: WNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
        Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
        12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
        Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
        Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
        Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
        Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
        Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
        Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Sep 12


        3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

        18W (UNNAMED) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 48 hours...with a turn towards the northwest thereafter.

        Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours...and the depression should become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or Tuesday.

        The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

        TUESDAY MORNING:  Strengthens to a Tropical Storm as it moves across the North Philippine Sea...about 721 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 13: 21.8N 132.7 @ 75kph].
        WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Becomes a strong Tropical Storm as it maintain its WNW track towards Okinawa and the Ryukyus...about 438 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 14: 23.0N 129.8E @ 95kph].
        THURSDAY MORNING:  Approaching typhoon strength as it passes to the south of Okinawa Island...about 200 km South of Okinawa City [8AM SEP 15: 24.7N 127.9E @ 100kph].

        *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


        EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

        18W's (Unnamed) circulation remains broad and still in the process of consolidating with most of its rainbands restricted along the eastern periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

        DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
        12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 26 to 150 mm (low to high) along areas near the center of 18W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


        CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG

        >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to
        widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue across the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL & THE VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate Southerly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

        Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



        JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

        REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.2N 135.7E.
        *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
        EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
        KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
        IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
        CENTER (LLCC) WITH A PERSISTENT, ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
        OVER THE CENTER. MSI ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
        DISPLACED EAST OF THE LLCC PERSISTING WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
        LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A 112306Z SSMIS
        IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH SHALLOW
        CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
        IMAGERY INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
        TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS
        RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
        OF A TUTT CELL NEAR 22N 132E. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
        30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM
        RJTD AND PGTW. SCATTEROMETER DATA GENERALLY INDICATES CORE WINDS OF
        15-20 KNOTS WITH 25-30 KNOTS EXTENDING OUT TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE
        CENTER (ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 11/12Z SHIP REPORT NEAR 25N 134E
        INDICATING 28 KNOTS). WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE
        EXTENSIVE WIND FIELD INDICATED IN BOTH ASCAT AND OCEANSAT DATA. 3.
        FORECAST REASONING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND THE
        SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE...(
        more info)
        _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
        :

         
        _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

        RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

        **NOT YET AVAILABLE**
        _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

        RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


        > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
        ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


        > Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
        ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
        :  



        > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
        ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
         
        NOTE:
         
          * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
        __________________________________________________________________________________________

        >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

           
        http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
           
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
            http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
            http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
            http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
        __________________________________________________________________________________________

        For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

        >
        http://www.typhoon2000.com
        http://www.maybagyo.com

        :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
           
        http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


        Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

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