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XT Cyclone CHABA [KATRING] - Update #026

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    for Saturday, 30 October 2010 [6:30 PM PhT] ... Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts! For more details: Text T2K HELP to 2800
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 30, 2010


      for Saturday, 30 October 2010 [6:30 PM PhT]

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      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 29 2010):

      Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on XT CHABA (KATRING).


      CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
      :: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

      EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
      T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 026

      6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 30 October 2010
      Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #036/SatFixes
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
      CHABA (KATRING) is now an Extratropical (XT) Cyclone...just passed to the South of Tokyo as it rapidly tracks toward the northeast across the NW Pacific Ocean.

      Ships and boats navigating along the NW Pacific, south of the Kuril Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.

      Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

      CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

      Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 30 2010
      Location of Center: 34.5º N Lat 140.7º E Lon
      Distance: 160 km (87 nm) SE of Tokyo, Japan
      MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
      Present Movement: NE @ 43 kph (23 kts)
      Towards: Northwest Pacific Ocean
      24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 150 mm (Moderate)
      Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: XT
      Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
      Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0-0.9 m]

      Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sat Oct 30

      FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

      XT Cyclone CHABA is expected to continue moving northeastward across the open sea for the next 24 hours and weaken [2AM OCT 31: 36.3N 143.0E @ 85kph...2PM OCT 31: 39.0N 147.1E @ 55kph].

      Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is already an Extratropical (XT) Cyclone. Wind radii no longer available at this category.

      *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

      EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

      No longer available...due to system becoming XT Cyclone.

      CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing showers to widespread rains can be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, EASTERN VISAYAS & EASTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate East, ENE, NE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today. Strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

      CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: REST OF VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & REST OF MINDANAO. Light to moderate East, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



      External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)


      View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

      JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
      NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
      EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
      Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
            


      JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

      REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 30 OCTOBER POSITION: 33.6N 139.0E.
      *EXTRATROPICAL (XT) CYCLONE 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
      SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
      KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS LOST ALL
      IDENTIFIABLE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS
      AN XT CYCLONE. FORMATIVE FRONTAL FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE EVIDENT
      IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
      AS THE SYSTEM EMBEDS WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL
      WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET HAS DEPLETED DEEP
      CONVECTION IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, EVEN THIS
      CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
      THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MID-
      LATITUDES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON DVORAK AND RADAR FIXES
      FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN XT
      DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM PGTW, AND A CORRESPONDING CURRENT
      INTENSITY OF 4.0..
      .(more)

      >> color=#000080>CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus)Name contributed by: Thailand.
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      RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
      :


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      RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
      :


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      RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
      :


      > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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      RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


      > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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      LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
       



      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
       
      NOTE:
       
        * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on XT Cyclone CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:

      >
      href="http://www.typhoon2000.com/">http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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