TS MIRINAE (SANTI) - Update #016
for Saturday, 31 October 2009 [9:32 AM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 30 2009):
Currently issuing 3-hrly Web & SMS Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...while 6-hrly advisories continues for E-Mail.
MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 016
9:00 AM PST (01:00 GMT) Sat 31 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #020
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) has weakened further upon crossing Batangas...now just west of Nasugbu.
*Residents and visitors along Batangas and nearby provinces should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: The circulation of MIRINAE is expected to weaken further as it moves across the unfavorable atmospheric conditions of the South China Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MIRINAE accelerating towards Vietnam and moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning. It will make landfall over Vienam on Monday, November 02. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation is now off the west coast of Batangas, bringing strong winds and high surf across the area. Improving weather conditions will be expected across Southern Tagalog and the rest of Southern Luzon including Metro Manila later today as MIRINAE moves into the South China Sea later this afternoon. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces particularly along the coast of Batangas and Mindoro. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 9:00 AM PST Sat October 31 2009
Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 120.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) West of Nasugbu, Batangas
Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) WSW of Tagaytay City
Distance 3: 110 km (60 nm) SW of Manila
Distance 4: 125 km (67 nm) SW of Quezon City
Distance 5: 90 km (48 nm) SSW of Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 6: 340 km (182 nm) WNW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
T2K TrackMap #07 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 31
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 31
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 31
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, BATAAN, RIZAL, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATANGAS, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: PAMPANGA, BULACAN, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLANDS, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will experience stormy weather this morning (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ZAMBALES, TARLAC, NEUVA ECIJA, AURORA, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., NORTHERN PALAWAN, NORTHERN PANAY.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.2N 119.0E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 26 KPH2 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 14.0 116.2E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 26 KPH
2 AM (06 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.2N 110.3E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WSW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (06 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 12.4N 107.3E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 01 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.3N 121.7E.
*MIRINAE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W HAS
MOVED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301710Z
AMSR-E PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF TS 23W HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE. LAND INFLUENCES
HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS (FROM
85 TO 55 KNOTS). TS 23W IS STILL TRACKING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER
LUZON, WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO VIETNAM AND
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):> 4 AM (20 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.0N 121.3E / WSW @ 24 kph / 130 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________NOTE:^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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