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TS MIRINAE (SANTI) - Update #016

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    ... for Saturday, 31 October 2009 [9:32 AM PST] ... Get the latest 3-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on SANTI! For more details: Text T2K
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 30, 2009

      for Saturday, 31 October 2009 [9:32 AM PST]

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      Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 30 2009):

      Currently issuing 3-hrly Web & SMS Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...while 6-hrly advisories continues for E-Mail.


      MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

      + USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
      + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
      + Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
      + Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
      + Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
      + Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

      TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
      T2K INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 016

      9:00 AM PST (01:00 GMT) Sat 31 October 2009
      Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #020
      View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

      Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) has weakened further upon crossing Batangas...now just west of Nasugbu.

      *Residents and visitors along Batangas and nearby provinces should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

      *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


      + Forecast Outlook: The circulation of MIRINAE is expected to weaken further as it moves across the unfavorable atmospheric conditions of the South China Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MIRINAE accelerating towards Vietnam and moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning. It will make landfall over Vienam on Monday, November 02. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

      + Effects: MIRINAE's circulation is now off the west coast of Batangas, bringing strong winds and high surf across the area. Improving weather conditions will be expected across Southern Tagalog and the rest of Southern Luzon including Metro Manila later today as MIRINAE moves into the South China Sea later this afternoon. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces particularly along the coast of Batangas and Mindoro. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

      [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
      Time/Date: 9:00 AM PST Sat October 31 2009
      Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 120.1º E Lon
      Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) West of Nasugbu, Batangas
      Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) WSW of Tagaytay City
      Distance 3: 110 km (60 nm) SW of Manila
      Distance 4: 125 km (67 nm) SW of Quezon City
      Distance 5: 90 km (48 nm) SSW of Subic/Olongapo City
      Distance 6: 340 km (182 nm) WNW of Metro Naga/CWC
      MaxWinds (1-min avg):
      95 kph (50 kts) near the center
      Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
      Click to view:
      Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis
      new!
      6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
      Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
      Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]

      Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
      Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
      Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
      Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) / Average
      Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
      T2K TrackMap #07 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 31
      JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 31
      Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 31
      TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
      NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
      EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
      Zoomed Satellite Pic:
      Near Real-Time
      Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
      In Effect: METRO MANILA, BATAAN, RIZAL, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATANGAS, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND.

      PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
      In Effect: PAMPANGA, BULACAN, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLANDS, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

      The above areas will experience stormy weather this morning (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

      PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
      In Effect: ZAMBALES, TARLAC, NEUVA ECIJA, AURORA, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., NORTHERN PALAWAN, NORTHERN PANAY.

      The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

      Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

      JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

      2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.2N 119.0E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 26 KPH
      2 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 14.0 116.2E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 26 KPH
      2 AM (06 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.2N 110.3E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WSW @ 15 KPH 
      2 AM (06 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 12.4N 107.3E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 01 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.3N 121.7E.
      *MIRINAE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL
      STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W HAS
      MOVED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN
      CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301710Z
      AMSR-E PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE
      NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
      EASTERN HALF OF TS 23W HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE. LAND INFLUENCES
      HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS (FROM
      85 TO 55 KNOTS). TS 23W IS STILL TRACKING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER
      LUZON, WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE
      NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING
      VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES
      BACK OVER WATER WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
      HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO VIETNAM AND
      DISSIPATE..
      (
      more)

      >> color=#000080>MIRINAE, meaning: Milky WayName contributed by: Korea.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
      > 4 AM (20 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.0N 121.3E / WSW @ 24 kph / 130 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
         
      http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
      _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


      RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
      :


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      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


      > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      NOTE:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

         
      http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
         
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

      >
      color=#800080>http://www.typhoon2000.com
      http://www.maybagyo.com

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