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TD AURING weakens... [Update #004]

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 06 JANUARY 2009 Source: JMA 18Z WARNING
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 5, 2009

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W] 
      Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 06 JANUARY 2009
      Source: JMA 18Z WARNING FOR HIGH SEAS / T2K XTRAPOLATION
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT IS NOW TURNING
      WESTWARD...THREATENS SAMAR-BICOL. SURGE OF NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING
      ACROSS LUZON, BICOL REGION AND VISAYAS.

      *Residents and visitors along Northern Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress
      of AURING
      .

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is now expected to move West to WSW for the
      next 24 hours and weaken further. The strong High Pressure Steering Ridge
      has pushed the system into this new direction. It shall be off the Northern
      Coast of Northern Samar tomorrow morning
      .

      + EFFECTS: AURING's circulation has become more compact to the east of
      Bicol Region
      . Its convective rain bands is expected to bring widespread
      rains with heavy squalls and winds not exceeding 50 kph
      across the eas-
      tern coast of Bicol and Samar today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75
      up to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumula-
      tions of up to 200 mm near the center of AURING. Residents in low-lying
      areas & steep
      slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible
      life-threate
      ning flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anti-
      cipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures
      must be initiated if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides
      can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon, Visayas, Bicol
      Region and Northern Mindanao.

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
      Strong surge of Northeast (NE) Monsoon
      continues
      to affect Luzon, & Visayas becoming more intense across
      Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.
      Clear to cloudy
      skies with possible passing drizzle to "on and
      off" rainshowers &
      NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will
      prevail on these areas for
      the next 24 hours.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) TUE 06 JAN 2009 
      LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 13.1º N...LONGITUDE 128.5º
      DISTANCE 1: 375 KM (202
      NM) NE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 430 KM (232 NM) ENE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH
      DISTANCE 3: 460 KM (248 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
      DISTANCE 4: 520 KM (280 NM) EAST OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH 
      DISTANCE 5: 575 KM (310 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, PH 
      MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 60 KM/HR (33 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
      COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1004 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: SAMAR-BICOL AREA
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 300 KM (160 NM)/
      SMALL
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
      6 AM MANILA TIME TUE JAN 06
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

      12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
      2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 13.0N 126.9E
      2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 12.8N 125.5E

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JANUARY POSITION: 13.0N 129.0E.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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