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TD AURING - Update #003

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W] Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 05 JANUARY 2009 Source: PAGASA WARNING FOR
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 5, 2009

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W] 
      Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 05 JANUARY 2009
      Source: PAGASA WARNING FOR SHIPPING #009 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) HEADING NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
      CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA. SURGE OF NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING OVER
      LUZON, BICOL REGION AND VISAYAS.

      *Residents and visitors along Northern Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress
      of AURING
      .

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is expected to continue moving NE in the
      direction of the Central Philippine Sea and away from the Philippines.
      *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that AURING shall
      track-back to the West to WSW tomorrow and cross Bicol-Samar area on
      Wednesday. This scenario is likely if the developing High Pressure
      Steering Ridge off Taiwan strengthens and becomes the dominant
      factor - bringing strong surge of NE Monsoon which will steer
      AURING.

      + EFFECTS: AURING's circulation continues to consolidate to the east
      of Bicol Region. Its convective rain bands is expected to bring
      widespread rains with heavy squalls and winds not exceeding 60 kph
      across the eastern coast of Bicol and Samar today. 1-day rainfall
      accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is
      possible along its rain bands.
      ..with isolated accumulations of up to
      200 mm near the center of
      AURING.
      Residents in low-lying areas & steep
      slopes must remain
      alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threate
      ning flash
      floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains
      brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated
      if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected
      along the beach-front areas of Luzon, Visayas, Bicol Region and
      Northern Mindanao
      .

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
      Strong surge of Northeast (NE) Monsoon
      continues
      to affect Luzon, & Visayas becoming more intense across
      Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.
      Clear to cloudy
      skies with possible passing drizzle to "on and
      off" rainshowers &
      NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will
      prevail on these areas for
      the next 24 hours.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 05 JAN 2009 
      LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 13.7º N...LONGITUDE 128.7º
      DISTANCE 1: 435 KM (235
      NM) NE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 465 KM (250 NM) ENE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH
      DISTANCE 3: 475 KM (256 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
      DISTANCE 4: 545 KM (295 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH 
      DISTANCE 5: 595 KM (322 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH 
      MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
      COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/
      SMALL/AVERAGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
      6 PM MANILA TIME MON JAN 05
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

      24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
      2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 16.8N 131.8E
      2 PM (06 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 20.5N 136.5E

      REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 JANUARY POSITION: 13.5N 128.3E.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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