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TD AURING heading North...threat to Bicol remains [Update #002]

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 05 JANUARY 2009 Source: PAGASA SEVERE
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 4, 2009

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W] 
      Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 05 JANUARY 2009
      Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #007 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD...REMAINS
      A THREAT TO BICOL REGION. SURGE OF NORTHEAST MONSOON AFFECTING NCR,
      LUZON, BICOL AND VISAYAS.

      *Residents and visitors along Northern Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress
      of AURING
      .

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is expected to continue moving North to NNE
      in the direction of the Central Philippine Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium
      forecast shows the depression recurving NE across the open waters of
      the Central Philippine Sea as a developing frontal system off Taiwan
      is expected to absorb the depression.

      + EFFECTS: AURING's circulation has become broad over the Philippine
      Sea with multiple circulation centers located within the system. Its
      convective rain bands is expected to bring widespread rains with heavy
      squalls and winds not exceeding 60 kph across Eastern Samar today.
      1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its
      rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the
      center of AURING. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must
      remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash
      floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains
      brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated
      if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected
      along the beach-front areas of Visayas and along the beach front areas
      of Bicol Region and Northern Mindanao.

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
      Strong surge of Northeast (NE) Monsoon
      continues
      to affect Metro Manila, Luzon, & Visayas becoming more
      intense across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.
      Clear to cloudy skies with possible passing drizzle to "on and
      off" rainshowers & NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will
      prevail on these areas for the next 24 hours.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) MON 05 JAN 2009 
      LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 12.9º N...LONGITUDE 126.8º
      DISTANCE 1: 280 KM (150
      NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 210 KM (113 NM) NE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
      DISTANCE 3: 245 KM (132 NM) ESE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH
      DISTANCE 4: 335 KM (182 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH 
      DISTANCE 5: 395 KM (215 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, PH 
      MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
      COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/
      SMALL/AVERAGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
      6 AM MANILA TIME MON JAN 05
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

      24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
      2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 15.4N 127.4E
      2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 18.0N 129.4E
      2 AM (18 GMT) 08 JANUARY: 19.7N 130.8E

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JANUARY POSITION: 12.5N 126.6E.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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