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TS NOUL (TONYO) to hit SE Vietnam after lunch...[Update #004]

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004 Name: TROPICAL STORM NOUL [TONYO/26W/0820] Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) MON 17 NOVEMBER 2008 Source: JTWC WARNING
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 16, 2008

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
      Name: TROPICAL STORM NOUL [TONYO/26W/0820] 
      Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) MON 17 NOVEMBER 2008
      Source: JTWC WARNING #005 / T2K EXTRAPOLATION ANALYSIS
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      NOUL (TONYO) BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...RAPIDLY ACCELERATINGD WESTWARD...
      NOW VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN VIETNAM, JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
      OF NHA TRANG CITY...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR...STRONG WINDS
      AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.

      *Interests in Cambodia, SE & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NOUL.

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: TS NOUL may briefly reach 85 or 100 kph just prior
      to hitting land. It will make landfall over Southeastern Vietnam after
      noontime today...and cross SE and Southern Vietnam throughout this
      afternoon until early evening, passing more or less 50 km North of Ho
      Chi Minh City. The core is expected to weaken rapidly as land interaction
      begins and shall be off Cambodia late this evening until tomorrow morning.
      It shall exit over the Gulf of Thailand tomorrow afternoon and cross the
      Isthmus of Kra tomorrow evening. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows
      NOUL traversing the North Indian Ocean thru Andaman Sea and regaining
      Tropical Storm status on Thursday Nov 20...and approaching the East Coast
      of India on Saturday Nov 22. NOUL is likely to changed its identity from
      a Tropical Storm to a CYCLONE (term usually used for tropical cyclones
      off Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal).

      + EFFECTS: NOUL's main circulation has began to enter Southeastern Viet-
      nam...its rainbands now affecting most of Southeastern Vietnam...the whole
      of Southern Vietnam will be under its circulation later this afternoon til
      tonight. These bands is expected to moderate to heavy rains with passing
      strong squalls...and wind gusts not in excess of 100 kph. 1-day rainfall
      accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm is possible along its rain bands...with
      isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of NOUL. Residents
      in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for
      possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the
      anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary
      measures must be initiated if necessary.
       
      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) MON 17 NOV 2008 
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.6º N...LONGITUDE 109.8º
      DISTANCE 1: 95 KM (50
      NM) SE OF NHA TRANG CITY, VIETNAM 
      DISTANCE 2: 350 KM (190 NM) ENE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
      DISTANCE 3: 535 KM (290 NM) EAST OF PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIA
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
      TROPICAL STORM 
      COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHEASTERN VIETNAM
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 295 KM (160 NM)/
      SMALL
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
      VIEW TRACKING MAP: 
      8 AM MANILA TIME MON NOV 17
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

      08, 20, 44 & 68 HR. FORECAST:
      8 PM (12 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 11.4N 108.7E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 26 KPH
      8 AM (00 GMT) 18 NOVEMBER: 11.0N 105.9E / 45-65 KPH / W @ 28 KPH
      8 AM (00 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER: 10.4N 99.5E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 30 KPH
      8 AM (00 GMT) 20 NOVEMBER: 11.2N 92.9E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH

      REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.4N 111.4E.
      ^TS 26W (NOUL) HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED WHILE CONTINUING GENER-
      ALLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
      OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
      UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PASSAGE ACROSS A HIGH HEAT CONTENT SEA
      SURFACE...
      (more)

      >> color=#000080>NOUL, meaning: Glows, red skyName contributed by: DPR Korea.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TS NOUL (TONYO/26W)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
      href="http://www.typhoon2000.com/">http://www.typhoon2000.com
      href="http://www.maybagyo.com/">http://www.maybagyo.com

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