TD TONYO (26W) - Update #003
Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [26W]Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: JTWC WARNING #001 / T2K EXTRAPOLATE ANALYSIS
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only._____________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (26W) HAS MOVED OUT OF THE PHILIPPINE AREAOF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AFTER CROSSING SOUTHERN PALAWAN EARLY LASTNIGHT...NOW ACCELERATING WESTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE SPRATLY ISLANDS...AIMING FOR SOUTHERN VIETNAM.
*Interests in Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to maintain its Westward trackfor the next 5 days...may reach tropical storm status later today andmake landfall over Southern Vietnam tomorrow evening, Nov 17 - just eastof Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). The core is expected to pass verynear to the south of Ho Chi Minh around 3 to 4 AM on Tuesday, Nov 18.The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows TONYO traversing the Gulf ofThailand as a minimal tropical storm on Wednesday morning, Nov 19...andshall cut across Isthmus of Kra Wednesday afternoon...moving intoAndaman Sea off Indian Ocean on Thursday Nov 20, changing its identityfrom a Tropical Storm to a CYCLONE (term usually used for tropicalcyclones off Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal).
+ EFFECTS: TONYO's circulation remains over the South China Sea, alongthe Spratlys...its eastern rainbands no longer affecting Southern Pala-wan...western rainbands shall reach Southern Vietnam later tonight ortomorrow morning. These bands is expected to bring scattered, widespreadrains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not inexcess of 75 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm ispossible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250mm near the center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopesmust remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flashfloods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains broughtabout by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated ifnecessary.Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.4º N...LONGITUDE 114.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45 NM) SSE OF PAGASA ISLAND, SPRATLYS
DISTANCE 2: 455 KM (245 NM) WNW OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY, PALAWAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 625 KM (338 NM) ESE OF NHA TRANG CITY, VIETNAMDISTANCE 4: 865 KM (468 NM) ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW FINAL T2K TRACKING MAP: 12 PM MANILA TIME SUN NOV 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 10.4N 113.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 22 KPH8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 10.6N 111.0E / 75-95 KPH / W @ 22 KPH8 AM (00 GMT) 18 NOVEMBER: 10.5N 105.9E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER: 10.0N 100.6E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 26 KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.1N 115.6E.
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
>>To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
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