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TD TONYO (26W) - Update #003

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  • Typhoon2000.com (Michael Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [26W] Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOVEMBER 2008 Source: JTWC WARNING #001
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 15 10:48 PM

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [26W] 
      Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOVEMBER 2008
      Source: JTWC WARNING #001 / T2K EXTRAPOLATE ANALYSIS
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (26W) HAS MOVED OUT OF THE PHILIPPINE AREA
      OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AFTER CROSSING SOUTHERN PALAWAN EARLY LAST
      NIGHT...NOW ACCELERATING WESTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE SPRATLY ISLANDS
      ...AIMING FOR SOUTHERN VIETNAM.

      *Interests in Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to maintain its Westward track
      for the next 5 days...may reach tropical storm status later today and
      make landfall over Southern Vietnam tomorrow evening, Nov 17 - just east
      of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). The core is expected to pass very
      near to the south of Ho Chi Minh around 3 to 4 AM on Tuesday, Nov 18.
      The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows TONYO traversing the Gulf of
      Thailand as a minimal tropical storm on Wednesday morning, Nov 19...and
      shall cut across Isthmus of Kra Wednesday afternoon...moving into
      Andaman Sea off Indian Ocean on Thursday Nov 20, changing its identity
      from a Tropical Storm to a CYCLONE (term usually used for tropical
      cyclones off Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal).

      + EFFECTS: TONYO's circulation remains over the South China Sea, along
      the Spratlys...its eastern rainbands no longer affecting Southern Pala-
      wan...western rainbands shall reach Southern Vietnam later tonight or
      tomorrow morning. These bands is expected to bring scattered, widespread
      rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not in
      excess of 75 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is
      possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250
      mm near the center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes
      must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash
      floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought
      about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if
      necessary.
       
      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOV 2008 
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.4º N...LONGITUDE 114.6º
      DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45
      NM) SSE OF PAGASA ISLAND, SPRATLYS 
      DISTANCE 2: 455 KM (245 NM) WNW OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY, PALAWAN, PH
      DISTANCE 3: 625 KM (338 NM) ESE OF NHA TRANG CITY, VIETNAM
      DISTANCE 4: 865 KM (468 NM) ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM 
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
      COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN VIETNAM
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/
      AVERAGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
      VIEW FINAL T2K TRACKING MAP: 
      12 PM MANILA TIME SUN NOV 16
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

      12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
      8 PM (12 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 10.4N 113.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 22 KPH
      8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 10.6N 111.0E / 75-95 KPH / W @ 22 KPH
      8 AM (00 GMT) 18 NOVEMBER: 10.5N 105.9E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
      8 AM (00 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER: 10.0N 100.6E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 26 KPH

      REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.1N 115.6E.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TD TONYO (26W)...go visit
      our website @:

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