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TS HIGOS (PABLO) endangers Samar-Leyte-Bicol... [Update #002]

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002 Name: TROPICAL STORM HIGOS [PABLO/21W/0817] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 30 SEPTEMBER 2008 Source: JOINT
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 29, 2008

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
      Name: TROPICAL STORM HIGOS [PABLO/21W/0817] 
      Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 30 SEPTEMBER 2008
      Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #003
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      HIGOS (PABLO) IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...HEADING TOWARDS SAMAR-
      LEYTE AND BICOL...HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER
      THE THREATENED
      AREAS.

      *Interests along the Visayas and the Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of HIGOS
      (PABLO).

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: HIGOS is expected to continue heading WNW the
      next 2 days and may still continue to slightly intensify. The center
      shall cross Leyte-Samar Area tonight..passing very close to Tacloban
      City before 8 PM. It shall then be over Masbate Island early tomorrow
      morning...moving across Sibuyan Sea, Romblon, Tablas Island tomorrw
      afternoon. HIGOS shall move in between Mindoro and Batangas, passing
      very close to Puerto Galera before midnight of Thursday...then exit
      over the South China Sea on Thursday morning via the western coast of
      Batangas early Thursday morning Oct 2. The 3 to 5-day long range fore-
      cast shows HIGOS turning abruptly to the north...hugging the western
      coast of Zambales and Pangasinan...shall be approaching the Southern
      Coast of China (Eastern Guangdong) early Sunday morning.

      + EFFECTS: PABLO's circulation has become more compact..a sign that
      the system is still intensifying. Its rainbands continues to spread
      across Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao and is expected to reach
      Bicol Region later tonight. Passing moderate to heavy squalls associa-
      ted with its outer bands...with gusts not in excess of 65 kph...with
      higher winds along the core can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumula-
      tions of 200 up to 400 mm is possible along the core...with isolated
      accumulations of 500 mm near the center of HIGOS especially along the
      mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in
      Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas
      where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and
      water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associa-
      ted by this storm are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow.
      Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek
      evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides &
      landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this
      system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible
      coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet above normal tide levels
      ...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
      near the center of HIGOS. Very minimal damage is possible on this type
      of storm surge.

      + Tropical Cyclone Watch: Check out the latest advisories on another 
      TC over the South China Sea...
      Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (20W)...
      approaching the coast of Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam
      .
      Click here to open & visit the page.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) TUE 30 SEP 2008 
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.2º N...LONGITUDE 127.2º
      DISTANCE 1: 150 KM (80
      NM) ENE OF SIARGAO ISLAND RESORT, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 250 KM (135 NM) SE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
      DISTANCE 3: 270 KM (145 NM) SE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH
      DISTANCE 4: 490 KM (265 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH 
      DISTANCE 5: 575 KM (310 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH 
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
      TROPICAL STORM 
      COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 33 KM/HR (18 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN VISAYAS-BICOL REGION
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/
      SMALL/AVERAGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
      5 AM MANILA TIME TUE SEP 30
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
      #02 - EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE & BILIRAN ISLAND.
      #01 - SORSOGON, NORTHERN SAMAR, WESTERN SAMAR, SOUTHERN LEYTE, SIARGAO 
            ISLAND & DINAGAT ISLAND.


      12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
      2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 10.9N 125.6E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 11.9N 123.8E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 13.9N 120.8E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 16.1N 119.0E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 13 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.9N 127.7E.
      ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) HIGOS (21W) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
      12 HOURS. SHIP REPORTS IVO THE STORM INDICATE SURFACE WINDS OF 25
      KNOTS AND SLP AS LOW AS 1007 ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WITH GREATER WINDS
      BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY THE 290927Z
      QSCAT PASS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AWAY FROM KOROR, AND WAS
      UPGRADED TO TS STRENGTH BASED ON RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
      WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
      OF THE SYSTEM EVIDENT IN BOTH ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A 291105Z
      SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED DUE
      TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, COMING IN AT 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
      THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS LIMITED AND IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR
      THE 29/06Z FORECAST, BUT HAS SINCE IMPROVED AND IS SURPRISINGLY IN
      GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH IS A
      WESTERN OUTLIER
      ...
      (more)

      >> color=#000080>HIGOS, meaning: A Chamorro word for "Fig." Name contributed by: 
         United States of America
      .

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
      > 4 AM (20 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 10.1N 128.3E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 65 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
         
      http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TS HIGOS (PABLO)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
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