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TD PABLO (21W) - Update #001

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABLO [21W] Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 29 SEPTEMBER 2008 Source: JOINT TYPHOON
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 29, 2008

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABLO [21W] 
      Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 29 SEPTEMBER 2008
      Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #001
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABLO (21W) NEWLY-F0RMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE
      SEA...NOW THREATENS EASTERN VISAYAS AND BICOL REGION.

      *Interests along the eastern coast of Visayas and the Bicol Region should closely monitor the
      progress of PABLO.

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: PABLO is expected to turn more to the WNW to NW for the
      next 3 days and will reach Tropical Storm strength later tonight or early
      tomorrow morning. The center shall cross northern Samar early Wednesday
      morning Oct 1 and track across Albay Gulf before noontime...Lagonoy Gulf
      by early afternoon...and over Garchitorena and Caramoan Peninsula (Cama-
      rines Sur) around around 3 PM. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows
      PABLO brushing the coast of Aurora on Thursday afternoon Oct 2...and to
      the east of Batanes Group on Saturday afternoon, Oct 4.

      + EFFECTS: PABLO's developing circulation remains over the Southern Phi-
      lippine...bringing showers and winds across Palau. The rain bands of this
      new system is now spreading across Eastern and Northern Mindanao and is
      expected to reach Eastern Visayas later tonight or tomorrow morning.

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The
      Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
      enhanced by Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) across Visayas, Northern & Western
      Mindanao. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light to moderate
      passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & strong SW'ly winds not excee-
      ding 50 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars)
      and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep moun-
      tain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the
      affected areas.

      + Tropical Cyclone Watch: Check out the latest advisories on another
      newly-formed TC over the South China Sea...
      Tropical Storm MEKKHALA
      (20W)
      ...approaching the coast of Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam
      .
      Click here to open the page.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) MON 29 SEP 2008 
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.0º N...LONGITUDE 130.9º
      DISTANCE 1: 555 KM (300
      NM) ESE OF SIARGAO ISLAND RESORT, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 665 KM (360 NM) SE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
      DISTANCE 3: 695 KM (375 NM) SE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH
      DISTANCE 4: 885 KM (478 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH 
      DISTANCE 5: 985 KM (532 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH 
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
      COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN VISAYAS-BICOL REGION
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/
      N/A
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
      5 PM MANILA TIME MON SEP 29
      TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
      #01 - EASTERN SAMAR.


      12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
      2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 9.7N 129.0E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 11.0N 126.9E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.7N 124.0E / 65-85 KPH / NNW @ 13 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 16.2N 123.0E / 75-95 KPH / N @ 11 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 8.7N 131.6E.
      ^...(more)

      >> color=#000080>JANGMI, meaning: RoseName contributed by: Republic of Korea.
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
      > 4 PM (08 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 9.9N 130.7E / NW @ 15 KPH / 55 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
         
      http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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      For the complete details on TD PABLO (21W)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
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