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TD LAWIN (14W) - Final Update

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007 **FINAL** Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W] Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 28 AUGUST 2008 Source: JOINT
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 27, 2008

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007 **FINAL**
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W] 
      Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 28 AUGUST 2008
      Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #007 [FINAL]
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (14W) FIGHTING FOR LIFE WHILE DISSIPATING OVER
      THE BATANES GROUP...UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA REMAINS NOT
      CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. COMPLETE DISSIPATION EXPECTED LATER
      TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

      *This is the Final E-Mail Update on this weak depression.

      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving NW across the
      Bashi Channel and dissipate just to the South of Taiwan by tomorrow
      morning
      . 

      + EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with its rainbands
      sheared more or less 200 km southwest (SW) of its totally exposed Low
      Level Circulation Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is may likely affect
      the West Coast of Northern Luzon today - bringing light rains especially
      along the mountain slopes & coastal areas
      .

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
      The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
      enhanced by LAWIN but is retreating over the South China Sea. This wind
      system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off"
      light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr
      across the Western Coast of Luzon including Metro Manila today. Land-
      slides, mudflows (lahars) and flash floods is likely to occur along
      steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
      areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough)
      affecting Southern Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread sca-
      ttered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or
      evening.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 28 AUGUST
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.2º N...LONGITUDE 121.8º
      DISTANCE 1: 40 KM (22
      NM) SW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
      DISTANCE 2: 65 KM (35 NM) SOUTH OF ITBAYAT, BATANES, PH  
      DISTANCE 3: 105 KM (57 NM) NNE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH 
      DISTANCE 4: 200 KM (108 NM) NORTH OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: BASHI CHANNEL
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
      VIEW T2K FINAL TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME THU AUGUST 28

      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
      #01 - BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

      12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
      8 PM (12 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.8N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
      8 AM (00 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 21.5N 120.5E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

      REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 28 AUGUST POSITION: 20.0N 121.9E.
      ^THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE 27/06Z
      WARNING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
      IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
      CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM
      WEST. TD 14W HAS ALSO SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN LUZON DUE TO
      A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE AND LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
      DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL FAIR OVER-
      ALL WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS (JGSM, GFS AND ECMWF)
      ...(more)

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
      > 10 AM (02 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.4N 121.7E / NNW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
         
      http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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