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TD LAWIN (14W) weakening while approaching Batanes... [Update #006]

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  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W] Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 28 AUGUST 2008 Source: JOINT TYPHOON
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 27, 2008

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W] 
      Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 28 AUGUST 2008
      Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #006
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      LAWIN (14W) BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...FULLY-EXPOSED CENTER NOW
      APPROACHING THE BATANES GROUP...CONVECTIVE RAINCLOUDS DISPLACED ALONG
      SOUTH CHINA SEA AND NORTHWESTERN COAST OF LUZON BRINGING LIGHT RAINS
      AND WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

      *Weakening Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
      bringing light rains across Western Luzon.


      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving North to NNW as it
      passes very close to Batanes Group of Islands later this afternoon, and
      shall dissipate just to the South of Taiwan later tomorrow
      . 

      + EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with its rainbands
      sheared more or less 100 km southwest (SW) of its totally exposed Low
      Level Circulation Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect
      the western-half of Northern Luzon today - bringing light to moderate
      rains especially along the mountain slopes & coastal areas. Residents
      in low-lying areas & steep slopes must seek evacuation for possible
      flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about
      by this storm. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary
      .

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
      The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
      enhanced by LAWIN but is now very weak. This wind system is expected to
      bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to
      sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr across Western
      Luzon including Metro Manila today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and
      flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river
      banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile,
      ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) & Southwest Windflow affecting Southern
      Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread
      scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon
      or
      evening.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 AUGUST
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.7º N...LONGITUDE 122.3º
      DISTANCE 1: 95 KM (50
      NM) NE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 100 KM (55 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH  
      DISTANCE 3: 135 KM (73 NM) SSE OF ITBAYAT, BATANES, PH 
      DISTANCE 4: 160 KM (85 NM) NNE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME THU AUGUST 28

      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
      #01 - CAGAYAN, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO, 
            KALINGA, ABRA & ILOCOS NORTE.


      12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:
      2 PM (06 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.8N 122.0E / 55-75 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH
      2 AM (18 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 21.3N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 21.7N 120.9E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

      REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST POSITION: 19.4N 122.4E.
      ^THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE 27/06Z
      WARNING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
      IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
      CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM
      WEST. TD 14W HAS ALSO SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN LUZON DUE TO
      A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE AND LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
      DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL FAIR OVER-
      ALL WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS (JGSM, GFS AND ECMWF)
      ...(more)

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
      > 4 AM (20 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 19.7N 121.9E / NW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
         
      http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

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