Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.
 

TD LAWIN (14W) now off the East Coast of Cagayan... [Update #005]

Expand Messages
  • Typhoon2000.ph (Michael V. Padua)
    ... Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005 Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W] Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) WED 27 AUGUST 2008 Source: JOINT TYPHOON
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 27, 2008

      Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
      Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W] 
      Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) WED 27 AUGUST 2008
      Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #004
      Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
      _____________________________________________________________________________
       
       
      LAWIN (14W) WHICH REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS
      HAS WEAKENED BACK TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...EXPOSED CENTER NOW OFF
      THE EAST COAST
      OF CAGAYAN...RAINCLOUDS DISPLACED ALONG NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
      LUZON BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS.

      *The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
      bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Palawan, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region
      & western sections of Luzon & Visayas.


      + FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to slow in its WNW track throughout
      the forecast and shall cross the northern tip of Cagayan late tonight
      approx 10 PM local time and may weaken further due to land interaction.
      The 2 to 4-day medium range forecast shows LAWIN continuing on its snail-
      pace movement across the northern coast of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, near
      the same area where last week's KAREN passed by. LAWIN shall move across
      the South China Sea through Friday and Saturday as a dissipating system. 

      + EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation has become disorganized with its rainbands
      sheared south & west of its partially exposed Low Level Circulation Center
      (LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect Central and Northern Luzon
      today until tomorrow bringing light to moderate to at times heavy rains
      especially along the mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep
      slopes must seek evacuation for possible flooding & landslides due to the
      anticipated heavy rains brought about by this storm. Precautionary measures
      must be initiated if necessary.

      + CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
      The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
      enhanced by LAWIN across Bicol Region and Southwestern Luzon including
      Metro Manila, Palawan & Western Visayas. This wind system is expected to
      bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to
      sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows
      (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano
      slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
      Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) & Southwest Windflow affecting Rest
      of Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and
      thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

      Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
      effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
      every 06 to 12 hours!

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 27 AUGUST
      LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.1º N...LONGITUDE 122.6º
      DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55
      NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
      DISTANCE 2: 110 KM (60 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH  
      DISTANCE 3: 175 KM (95 NM) SE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH
      DISTANCE 4: 275 KM (150 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
      MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
      PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
      SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
      RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
      GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BABUYAN AREA
      STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
      MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
      VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27

      PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
      #01 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO, 
            KALINGA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, ILOCOS SUR & ILOCOS NORTE.


      12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
      2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.5N 121.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.9N 120.7E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 19.8N 119.1E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH
      2 PM (06 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 20.8N 118.3E / 45-65 KPH / N @ 05 KPH

      REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 17.9N 122.9E.
      ^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 262258Z SSMI IMAGE
      REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
      CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INCREASING NORTH-
      EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR, TS 14W
      HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC AND ENHANCED
      EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE
      DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE WEAK SYSTEM, AND VARIATION IN THE
      DEPICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CUR-
      RENTLY MOVING OVER EASTERN CHINA
      ...(more)

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
      > 4 PM (08 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 18.3N 122.7E / NW @ 15 KPH / 55 kph

      :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
         
      http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
      _____________________________________________________________________________

      RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


      _______________________________________________________________________________________

       
      RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


      > Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      NOTES:
       
        ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
            latest warning.
       
        * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
            # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
            signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

       ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
            its center.

      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      >>
      To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
         used on this update visit the ff:

          http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
          http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
          http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      :: Typhoon2000. com (T2K) Mobile
      >>
       
      Powered by: href="http://www.synermaxx.com/">Synermaxx
      Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
      Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800
      (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
      Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
      __________________________________________________________________________________________

      For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
      our website @:

      >
      href="http://www.typhoon2000.com/">http://www.typhoon2000.com
      href="http://www.maybagyo.com/">http://www.maybagyo.com

      :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
         
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


      Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.